Posted on 11/06/2012 6:41:32 AM PST by Numbers Guy
BOSTON—The presidential race is tied going into Election Day.
The final POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of 1,000 likely voters — conducted Sunday and Monday — shows Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama each claiming 47 percent nationally.
Our previous poll, conducted Monday through Thursday of last week, found the race tied at 48 percent. Although Romney and Obama have each led at times, the two candidates have stayed within the margin of error since the spring.
(Also on POLITICO: 9 takeaways from the 2012 election)
Independents break for Romney by 15 points, 47 percent to 32 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at dyn.politico.com ...
Because the government checks usually cannot replace 75K+ salaries.
Now come on, talking about older GOP leaning voters dying and younger Dem leaning voters being added to the voting population is just nonsense.
Why, you ask.
Because you are ignoring the fact that the whole voting population has aged 4 years thus becoming more GOP leaning. That cancels out the old vs young effect.
Ed Goeas is quoted in the Weekly Standard yesterday that they project Romney’s vote total to be 51% FWIW. In past elections, these guys have been very, very good.
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/why-romney-will-win_660391.html
I'll second that: it's impossible for Obama to even come close if he trails among Indies by 15. But there's one little caveat there that needs some explaining from the pollsters: Since 47 + 32 = 79, where did the other 21 % of the Indies go? Seems like much too high a number to be undecided and/or third party.
Uh, guys, this shows a BIG OBAMA LEAD in the swing states.
This is a good poll, and that is my first true warning sign.
warning that Obama will win?
The FDR Demwits are almost all gone now, a great many have passed since 2008. Of those who remain, many or most will have experienced the impact of Obamacare, and have seen what an a-hole he is on a consistent basis. Younger voters have four years more under their belts, and if they’re like most people (including me), they’ll have spent a few of those in the work force and lost some of that youthful stupid enthusiasm for redistribution and (especially) hiring quotas.
The wife of a friend is a diehard straight-ticket no-thinking-allowed Demwit, but she absolutely HATES quotas, because she feels she can do the job as well as anyone. I guess she doesn’t care who else loses out on a job because of the color bar, as long as it’s not her.
Thanks justiceseeker93.
I voted for Romney last Thursday.
Today I’m praying.
http://domania.us/Oaccess/POLITIC/RomneyBannerPlane.gif
I didn't say that. Rather I was responding to Numbers Guy's post # 1 and stating that the difference between the two electorates is more complex than just that. There is the more than compensating factor I mentioned: Conservatives who sat out '08 now returning to vote, plus lefties who voted in '08 now disillusioned and staying home.
As to the likelihood of the same individual voter aging 4 years and becoming more GOP leaning, there is probably some statistical truth to that. I saw one study where 13% of 2008 Obama voters are now voting for Romney. (On the other hand, very few McCain voters in '08 are switching to Obama.) It probably in most cases has more to to do with being turned off by Obama as an individual rather than generically becoming more GOP leaning, though. Either way, I'd be more than happy to have their votes.
LOL. I wasn’t picking on you. The post was really aimed at the conversation in general.
But it is true that as the population ages it becomes more conservative. At the far end they fall off. At the near end, the join as Dem leaning. Net result: not much.
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