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Posted on 11/06/2012 2:38:50 AM PST by kingattax
If Mitt Romney wins tonight, it’ll likely be because of something revealed by a little-noticed statistic released yesterday by the polling firm Rasmussen — following a similar statistic last week from Gallup.
Rasmussen revealed that for the month of October, its data showed that among likely voters, the electorate is 39 percent Republican and 33 percent Democratic.
This comes from a survey of 15,000 people taken over the course of a month. Yes, 15,000 people —15 times the number in a statistically significant poll.
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
Little-noticed?
John Pod needs to spend some time at Free Republic.
Has any poll oversampled Republicans by 6%?
Nope! If the D+ oversampled polls are all wrong, we are looking at a GOP landslide!
Of course it won’t happen without a big turnout operation. Let’s hope the GOP has its ground game up and running today.
6am, in line to vote— the key to victory
All the pollsters have missed the trend moving to Romney.
Nate Silver and Intrade are way off too!
But they can all claim later it was a late surge, its was too late to profile for it.
Yeah, sure.
"Has any poll oversampled Republicans by 6%?"
No, you can't oversample Republicans (and conservatives and libertarians) very easily! They're always more difficult to poll than Democrats (and liberals, socialists, communists, etc.) Pollsters "correct" their raw numbers to obtain the numbers they publish. Exactly how each pollster tries to do this is not something they're upfront about, but they all do it. Otherwise, they'd always predict that the Democrat would win. My guess is that they weigh the gross numbers with a formula that utilizes the last presidential election exit polling party ID results.
A "tie" usually means that the Republican is ahead by a couple of points. Gallup had Kerry-Bush tied at 49% / 49% in 2004. The election result was 51% Bush / 48% Kerry. They also predicted 53% Obama / 42% McCain. The actual election day vote was 53% / 46%. They understated the Republican vote by 4%, and that was with low Republican voter turnout!
Gallup has been doing polling since 1936 so they're as good as anyone. The partisan polling outfits and college polls don't warrant more than a skeptical eye roll. I'd look at a poll's party ID and mentally adjust the numbers under the assumption the roughly 1/3 of voters are Democrats, roughly 1/3 are Republicans, and roughly 1/3 are independents right now. As has been stated many times, if the independents are breaking significantly for Romney, it shouldn't be tied.
GOD works in mysterious ways.
LLS
Pray for Mitt
I like it!
I have no idea who will win, just who I hope will win, no one does. What I do know and believe is it will turn out in one of three ways. The candidate who wins will do so with a very small margin (under2%)OR it will be a big Romney victory. By big I mean by 4 or more points.
In any case I have promised myself a full 30 days hiatus from politics. No FR, no political forums at all for any reason, no TV except for History channel, football, Pawn Stars, and the like. One caveat to this is if Romney wins I will probably spend that evening watching MSNBC just to witness the anguish and blood letting. Everyone needs a bit of schadenfreude in their lives occasionally.
Yeah 1 ,when they wanted to keep Atkins in the race I think
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