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Ohio: Romney 49%, Obama 49% (Romney Must Win VA, FL, And Either OH/WI)
RasmussenReports ^ | November 05, 2012

Posted on 11/05/2012 10:37:02 PM PST by Steelfish

Ohio: Romney 49%, Obama 49%

An Unpredictable End to a Very Predictable Election By Scott Rasmussen Virginia: Romney 50%, Obama 48% Wisconsin: Obama 49%, Romney 49% Sign up for free daily updates

November 05

The pivotal presidential state of Ohio remains all tied up on the eve of Election Day.

The final Election 2012 Rasmussen Reports survey of Likely Ohio Voters shows Mitt Romney and President Obama each earning 49% support. One percent (1%) favors some other candidate in the race, and another one percent (1%) is undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Ohio is still one of eight Toss-Up states in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections, along with Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia and Wisconsin. Polls in Ohio close at 7:30 pm Eastern tomorrow. If Romney wins Virginia and Florida, he also will need to win either Ohio or Wisconsin to be on track to capture the White House.

The race in Ohio was tied late last week after Romney posted a slight 50% to 48% advantage a few days earlier. The candidates have been within two percentage points of one another or less in every survey in Ohio since May.

Forty percent (40%) of likely voters in the Buckeye State have already voted. Obama leads 60% to 37% among these voters.

Ninety-three percent (93%) have made up their minds whom they will vote for, and it’s Obama 50%, Romney 49% in this group.

(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
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1 posted on 11/05/2012 10:37:09 PM PST by Steelfish
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To: Steelfish
"Forty percent (40%) of likely voters in the Buckeye State have already voted. Obama leads 60% to 37% among these voters."

That can't be good...

2 posted on 11/05/2012 10:39:06 PM PST by MrShoop
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To: Steelfish

Forty percent (40%) of likely voters in the Buckeye State have already voted. Obama leads 60% to 37% among these voters.


If that is true it is over for Mitt in OH. There is no way the remaining 60% will tilt the other way.


3 posted on 11/05/2012 10:42:05 PM PST by cicero2k
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To: Steelfish

Romney will win Florida, Virginia, and a combination of one or more of OH/PA/WI. If Obama loses Ohio or Pennsylvania Romney will win. Losing Wisconsin isn’t necessarily a deathblow for Hussein, but it would be indicative of bigger problems.


4 posted on 11/05/2012 10:42:41 PM PST by xuberalles ("The Right Stuff" Conservative Novelties http://www.zazzle.com/xuberalles)
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To: MrShoop

That’s scary!


5 posted on 11/05/2012 10:43:13 PM PST by Steelfish (ui)
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To: MrShoop

Or accurate. I believe that the actual early vote percentage in Ohio is more like mid 20’s percentile


6 posted on 11/05/2012 10:43:34 PM PST by johncocktoasten (Practicing asymetrical thread warfare against anti-Palin Trolls)
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To: MrShoop

It’s not 40%. The Secretary of State website shows that 1.6MM voters have voted. Based on 2008 turnout that’s about 28%.


7 posted on 11/05/2012 10:44:03 PM PST by hawaiian
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To: xuberalles
but what do you make of this last minute Rasmussen crap?....a large majority of votes are already in for bamey?....

I thought this state was winnable?

8 posted on 11/05/2012 10:44:30 PM PST by cherry
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To: MrShoop

Obama’s early vote totals are way down in Ohio from 2008. Mitt is fine being Republicans outnumber Democrats in the state. Plus, he will carry independents.


9 posted on 11/05/2012 10:45:12 PM PST by xuberalles ("The Right Stuff" Conservative Novelties http://www.zazzle.com/xuberalles)
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To: cherry

It’s very winnable. Dems always try to get the early vote but they are outnumbered. Trust me, Obama will not runaway with this state.


10 posted on 11/05/2012 10:46:52 PM PST by xuberalles ("The Right Stuff" Conservative Novelties http://www.zazzle.com/xuberalles)
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To: MrShoop

Based on those number Romney needs 59% of the remaining voters to win OH EVs

Its all down now to GOTV in FL, OH, WI, PA, VA.

Romney has a very good shot at being the next President provided these states Vote.


11 posted on 11/05/2012 10:48:06 PM PST by Bailee
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To: xuberalles

That is what I understood from all I’ve read about early voting in Ohio. Obama does lead in early voting, but his numbers are way down compared to 2008.


12 posted on 11/05/2012 10:48:09 PM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: xuberalles

Even John McCain won the Election Day vote by 75,000. Mitt will do much better than that.


13 posted on 11/05/2012 10:48:53 PM PST by Arthurio
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To: MrShoop

How do they know what is inside of the votes. Is it by exit polling or do they assume democrat votes turned in will be votes for Obama. Do you think every democrat will vote for Obama?


14 posted on 11/05/2012 10:48:53 PM PST by funfan
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To: hawaiian

It’s not 40%. The Secretary of State website shows that 1.6MM voters have voted. Based on 2008 turnout that’s about 28%.


That is small comfort. Both the % of votes already counted and the split have to be way off. 60 to 37 is a landslide of the wrong kind, if it represents much more than 5% of the vote .


15 posted on 11/05/2012 10:49:45 PM PST by cicero2k
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To: trappedincanuckistan

It is my understanding from early and provisional voting, the race for OH is a dead heat. Which means the OH will be won on Election Day with GOTV.


16 posted on 11/05/2012 10:50:14 PM PST by CatOwner
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To: trappedincanuckistan

Exactly. Obama’s early vote totals in Ohio are significantly down in Ohio, while Republican numbers are notably higher than 4 years ago. Romney has an excellent chance of winning Ohio. Their own polls show them up by one point and the Republican electorate will be larger than in 2008. Add this to the fact Romney is winning the indy votet by a good margin and common sense tells you who really has more to worry about.


17 posted on 11/05/2012 10:52:13 PM PST by xuberalles ("The Right Stuff" Conservative Novelties http://www.zazzle.com/xuberalles)
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To: Arthurio
Even John McCain won the Election Day vote by 75,000. Mitt will do much better than that.

1) Obama was not an incumbant then.

2) There are a lot more government workers now who will vote for Obama.

3) There are a lot more people riding the wagon now than there was 4 years ago. Just look at the food stamp/ disability data now compared to 4 years ago.

18 posted on 11/05/2012 10:52:52 PM PST by tsowellfan (KEEP WORKING like we are 10 POINTS DOWN!!!!)
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To: cicero2k

Democrats also go for the early vote....nothing new. The real solace is in comparing it to the 2008 numbers. Much different. People just need to get out and vote and the rest will take care of itself!


19 posted on 11/05/2012 10:54:17 PM PST by xuberalles ("The Right Stuff" Conservative Novelties http://www.zazzle.com/xuberalles)
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To: Steelfish

All I can say is “Come on WI and IA!”.


20 posted on 11/05/2012 10:55:35 PM PST by CatOwner
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To: tsowellfan

Obama won independents in 2008...he will not this year...not even close. He has a horrible economy on his back and Republicans have the enthusiasm gap advantage. People need to relax, nothing more.


21 posted on 11/05/2012 10:56:49 PM PST by xuberalles ("The Right Stuff" Conservative Novelties http://www.zazzle.com/xuberalles)
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To: MrShoop
Ninety-three percent (93%) have made up their minds whom they will vote for, and it’s Obama 50%, Romney 49% in this group.

Forty percent (40%) of likely voters in the Buckeye State have already voted. Obama leads 60% to 37% among these voters.

Projected 50% for Obama and votes counted equals 60%?
Projected 49% for Romney and votes counted equals 37%?

Does this mean the ACTUAL didn't match the projected? So, a voter fraud swing for 0bama of 10%? Am I reading this wrong?

22 posted on 11/05/2012 10:57:42 PM PST by Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
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To: MrShoop
Forty percent (40%) of likely voters in the Buckeye State have already voted. Obama leads 60% to 37% among these voters.

There's something wrong with those numbers. If that was indeed the case, that would be the headline in the Rasmussen article. And more would be made of it in the article. But it isn't.

23 posted on 11/05/2012 10:57:52 PM PST by norcal joe
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To: MrShoop

Newt is the only one who has pointed out that democrats voting early does not mean they’re voting for obama. I doubt very seriously if they’re voting 100% for the Kenyan. But I am sure 100% of the republicans are voting for Romney.


24 posted on 11/05/2012 10:58:10 PM PST by Terry Mross (To former friends and relatives. Don't ever contact me if you still support obama.)
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To: CatOwner

Mitt will win those too.


25 posted on 11/05/2012 10:58:37 PM PST by xuberalles ("The Right Stuff" Conservative Novelties http://www.zazzle.com/xuberalles)
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To: johncocktoasten
And the Democrat counties were down by 4% and the GOP were up!

The Democrat EV was down by 180,000 votes!

26 posted on 11/05/2012 10:59:05 PM PST by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
What I mean is, the COUNTING of the votes errantly gives Obama an added 10%? The voter says and does one thing. The COUNTING process changes 10% of them from Romney to Obama?

Perhaps the original numbers are wrong.

27 posted on 11/05/2012 11:00:21 PM PST by Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
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To: cicero2k

Perhaps what we are seeing is a poll participation skew. The other side tends to cooperate with pollsters more so the early voters are being filtered this way.


28 posted on 11/05/2012 11:00:27 PM PST by cicero2k
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To: xuberalles

I would love for Romney to win WI and IA (along with FL, NC, VA, and CO), as that would make OH not required. What is bothersome about OH is the long period of time they are allowed to count provisional ballots. I would rather not wait that long to find out Romney won. So, taking WI and IA on Election Day would be great!


29 posted on 11/05/2012 11:00:44 PM PST by CatOwner
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To: tsowellfan

And there are more motivated Republican voters as well.


30 posted on 11/05/2012 11:00:44 PM PST by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Steelfish

Further analysis here.

1. Sunday one day poll
2. Early vote over sampled by 10% giving Obama an extra 1.5%
3. RNC claims a margin of 364k MORE high propensity voters than Dems available on Election Day.
4. Rove says that the Obama edge in EV is 75000 votes.


31 posted on 11/05/2012 11:01:06 PM PST by johncocktoasten (Practicing asymetrical thread warfare against anti-Palin Trolls)
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To: xuberalles

Early vote so they can see how many to manufacture..that’s why Romney needs to win big! can’t believe there are still people who are still undecided? Romney should win this thing even considering 47% will go to Obummer...50%+ Romney.
How sad is that? almost half of this county might/will vote for O just because of handouts, welfare etc..disgraceful.


32 posted on 11/05/2012 11:01:46 PM PST by rainee (Her)
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To: Terry Mross

How funny that people forget that. These numbers are merely by party affiliation, according to who they are voting for. Romney will win more crossover votes and significantly more of the indy vote. I’m not concerned until 95% of the vote is in.


33 posted on 11/05/2012 11:02:06 PM PST by xuberalles ("The Right Stuff" Conservative Novelties http://www.zazzle.com/xuberalles)
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To: xuberalles
Obama won independents in 2008...he will not this year...not even close. He has a horrible economy on his back and Republicans have the enthusiasm gap advantage.

I know, you're right. I agree. I'm not saying Obama will win Ohio. All I'm saying is when you compare 2012 to 2008 you must also take into consideration that Obama is the incumbent this time, he spent the last 4 years growing government (votes) and entitlement programs (more votes).

34 posted on 11/05/2012 11:03:07 PM PST by tsowellfan (KEEP WORKING like we are 10 POINTS DOWN!!!!)
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To: Terry Mross

“Not” according to I meant.


35 posted on 11/05/2012 11:04:10 PM PST by xuberalles ("The Right Stuff" Conservative Novelties http://www.zazzle.com/xuberalles)
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To: Steelfish
Well, even Rasmussen has it at 49% to 49% overall. So it can't be that bad even by whatever bizarre calculations he is doing. If Republican turn out is slightly more than he projects then Romney wins.

But lets get real, pollsters play these games every election. LAST MINUTE SHOCKING POLL!!!! I am getting old enough, and have seen it enough, to stop taking it as seriously. Tomorrow night we will know.

36 posted on 11/05/2012 11:04:25 PM PST by manx
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To: Steelfish

Rove said today something that is consistent with what he’s been tracking in Ohio. He said that as of two days ago, I believe, democrat early voting was 187,000 below what it was in 2008, and that republican voting was up 75,000. That’s a swing of, theoretically, 262,000. Obama won Ohio by 260,000, maybe 263,000. So, if Rove’s numbers are true, and I have no idea why they wouldn’t be — because that’s numbers available to him, I think, and not from polling — Romney is in very good shape in Ohio.....even McCain got tens of thousands more votes on election day in Ohio than did Obama.


37 posted on 11/05/2012 11:04:35 PM PST by line drive to right
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To: Steelfish

One odd thing. The number of self-report early voters in Ohio is always way higher than the actual Secretary of State’s numbers.

Perhaps they have returned their ballots by mail but they haven’t been received yet. Or, perhaps they are lying.

If they are lying, then the likely voter models in Ohio are wrong in our favor. On the other hand, if those numbers are accurate, then a 20%+ lead is going to be very difficult to overcome on election day.


38 posted on 11/05/2012 11:04:54 PM PST by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: johncocktoasten

Uh, since when are early votes and provisional votes counted, and the results released, before election day??


39 posted on 11/05/2012 11:05:08 PM PST by VideoPaul
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To: rainee

Anybody who is “undecided” at this point will be voting for Obama IMO.

You have to be pretty stupid to be undecided at this point or even 2 months ago. The stupid votes go to Obama unless they’re so stupid they misread the name and accidentally vote for Romney.


40 posted on 11/05/2012 11:05:53 PM PST by tsowellfan (KEEP WORKING like we are 10 POINTS DOWN!!!!)
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To: cicero2k

This differential must be just from polling by Rasmussen, not actual votes recorded by the State. That number doesn’t seem right.

Obama’s advantage in early voting in 2008 was less than 20% over McCain. And the final tally was only 4.6% margin for Obama in 2008.

As of Friday, the early votes were about 28% of the 2008 totals, and the early voting advantage is less than 10% Obama. We know that the early vote advantage has been cut dramatically in 2012 from 2008. And the projected margin for Romney on those yet to vote is 13%, which will make his margin more than enough.


41 posted on 11/05/2012 11:07:23 PM PST by bigred44
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To: funfan
How do they know what is inside of the votes.

From what I read, they don't. They go by zip code demographics.

42 posted on 11/05/2012 11:07:44 PM PST by Poincare (Reality is not a fool.)
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To: line drive to right

I have heard Rove and others say that as well.

If correct, Romney should win Ohio convincingly.

I don’t understand why there is such a large discrepancy with what the pollsters are reporting though. Not all of them are being deliberately biased, especially not Rasmussen, yet most of them are reporting very similar results.


43 posted on 11/05/2012 11:08:12 PM PST by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: tsowellfan

I agree the number of the government tit has increased, but I don’t think it will tip the scales. (Fraud could however) Obama absolutely has a chance to win Ohio. However, being Obama is chained to the worst economy since the WWII, and early voting looks much better than 2008, I think we have gained a number of new votes.


44 posted on 11/05/2012 11:08:39 PM PST by xuberalles ("The Right Stuff" Conservative Novelties http://www.zazzle.com/xuberalles)
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To: line drive to right

The unions may have ‘blown their wad’ for 0bama in early voting. This may account for the percentage difference. The meat and potatoes voters come tomorrow.. Republicans and Independents, probably record turnout. Does anyone know if that 60/37 break is correct in early voting though? I remember that old saying, “it’s not who votes, it’s who COUNTS the votes that matters”


45 posted on 11/05/2012 11:09:29 PM PST by Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
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To: line drive to right

The only problem I have with these numbers is that the DEMs not early voting may show up on election day, and those REPs who are early voting would have shown up on election day. Sorry, but I don’t have a warm fuzzy about OH. My nerves are about shot.


46 posted on 11/05/2012 11:09:46 PM PST by CatOwner
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To: VideoPaul

Never.


47 posted on 11/05/2012 11:10:46 PM PST by johncocktoasten (Practicing asymetrical thread warfare against anti-Palin Trolls)
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To: comebacknewt

It’s a mix of things.

close race = money

lazy = just use the 2008 numbers

bias = the MSM really does prefer Obama


48 posted on 11/05/2012 11:10:46 PM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: comebacknewt

Because Rasmussen is still using a +2 Dem model, although the electorate is expected to be +2 Rep or more. Throw in the fact Republicans have a 350,000 advantage in Ohio, Obama is losing Indy’s, and many like Rove are rationale to believe Romney will carry Ohio.


49 posted on 11/05/2012 11:12:39 PM PST by xuberalles ("The Right Stuff" Conservative Novelties http://www.zazzle.com/xuberalles)
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To: CatOwner

relax. it’s not a done deal, but things look good. i’d rather be in Romney’s shoes than Obama’s.


50 posted on 11/05/2012 11:12:57 PM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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