Skip to comments.Romney’s Path to 270
Posted on 11/05/2012 7:48:23 PM PST by Numbers Guy
Boston Romney officials tell National Review Online that the campaign is focused on two key states as Election Day nears: Ohio and Pennsylvania. They believe that they are competitive in Ohio, but should it drift away, theyre looking at Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes as a possible substitute for the Buckeye State. We have got to win one of those two states and do well everywhere else, a Romney adviser says. Were still pushing in Ohio, but its unpredictable. Pennsylvania, however, is really in play.
Romneys final-day schedule reflects his strategy. On Tuesday, he will campaign in Pittsburgh, Pa., and Cleveland, Ohio, according to campaign aides. Pennsylvania is one of the states where the president is under 50 percent, says Kevin Madden, a Romney aide. In the western part of the state, near Pittsburgh, there is a large coal economy and the president is losing support there. We are confident that the governor can do well in that area and in the Philadelphia suburbs, especially with independents.
Yet as Pennsylvania rises, Ohio continues to be an uphill battle for Romney. Hes heading to Cleveland, part of a manufacturing region in northeast Ohio, hoping to win over disgruntled blue-collar workers in the final hours. Were doing everything we can, but I dont see a lot in Ohio that points to a clear Republican victory, says a Romney insider. The president has been hammering us for months, and the auto bailout is popular.
Its been over a century since a Republican has won the White House without winning Ohio, but Romney advisers are confident that they can figure out a path to 270 electoral votes should Ohio and its 18 electoral votes go blue.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
Virginia is crucial, that's the one to watch early tomorrow.
I'm not saying any of this to be optimistic or pessimistic, if it's decisive one way or another, it will be known in short order. But if it's close, here's what we should be watching most closely.
Here are the scenarios:
Romney takes all the McCain 2008 states, plus NC VA FL IN CO. This yields 257 EVs. Then only one of the following must be won for a Romney victory:
1. OH(18) -or-
2. PA(20) -or-
3. MI(16) -or-
4. MN(10) + [NH(4) or IA(6) or NV(6)] -or-
5. WI(10) + [NH(4) or IA(6) or NV(6)] -or-
6. NV(6) + IA(6) (the tie scenario).
You forgot one:
7. NH(4) + IA(6) + NV(6)
8. MN(10) + WI(10) (probably the long shot)
Say what? This is not what you want to hear from the Romney people the night before elections day. I thought PA was to expand the map. This guy's making it sound like it's a necessary alternative.
Say what? This is not what you want to hear from the Romney people the night before election day. I thought PA was to expand the map. This guy's making it sound like it's a necessary alternative.
You can have the (6a) where Romney gets the one EC from Maine.
Romney was interviewed on his plane by Greta tonight and he said Ohio is done... he says he will win Ohio and the presidency and that trumps any campaign worker... named or otherwise.
I think Wisconsin is the the surprise. Pick up WI and one a small state and you don’t need Ohio.
Republicans have gained between 8.9% and 12.9% in voter self identification since 2008. These are numbers are generated by in depth studies over tens of thousands of interviews with voters. If we gain even the low end of this range, all this talk is garbage as its going to be a clean sweep.
Do you think Romney would say he is going to lose Ohio? If Romney had it in the bag, he wouldn’t be going to PA and Ohio on election day. I’m not pessimistic or optimistic it’s up for grabs.
Be prepared for the media to do everything it can to suppress Republican votes, including calling as many states for Obama as early as they can and dragging their heels calling any states for Romney that aren’t blatantly obvious. That means guys out West will be voting thinking Obama is ahead and folks in the East going to bed with the illusion that Obama is going to win. When they wake up the next morning, they’re going to assume that Republicans stole the election again with dirty tricks when, in reality, the media vastly overstated Obama’s victories and downplayed Romney’s until the inevitable truth could no longer be avoided.
This theory is closer to reality than I want to think. I tend to agree. I’ll be flipping between CNN and Fox. I think NBCABCCBS will fall for this, CNN and Fox, not so much. As biased as CNN is they get huge numbers for their election night coverage because they are pretty good at it.
That statement seems counter to the Romney “internals” showing a 1 point lead. So much smoke-screening, I guess.
Various sources have reported that Romney’s margins in Ohio have varied between +2 and -2 over the past couple of weeks. This insider is saying Ohio is unpredictable because of that variation.
If the extremely late deciders break even remotely for Romney, he will win. If they don’t, then it will be very, very close and could go either way.
We should get a definitive answer tomorrow. Personally, I like our chances.
This report is actually very depressing and I fear it may be close to the truth. My nightmare is that the surprise state outcomes that all expect will not be Romney picking off a state but instead will be Obama taking a state we are counting on like Virginia. Sorry for getting pessimistic but there it is. Let’s hope that even the Romney camp is happily surprised by what happens with turnout tomorrow.
Doesn’t counter it at all. Just the reality of the situation.
The number has been bouncing around for the last few weeks and could change again tomorrow.
If Romney had it in the bag, he wouldnt be going to PA and Ohio on election day
I saw his face... the face of his wife and the demeanor on the plane. I know what I saw and it was a man that knows he is the next president of the US.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.