Skip to comments.Romney’s Path to 270
Posted on 11/05/2012 7:48:23 PM PST by Numbers Guy
Boston Romney officials tell National Review Online that the campaign is focused on two key states as Election Day nears: Ohio and Pennsylvania. They believe that they are competitive in Ohio, but should it drift away, theyre looking at Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes as a possible substitute for the Buckeye State. We have got to win one of those two states and do well everywhere else, a Romney adviser says. Were still pushing in Ohio, but its unpredictable. Pennsylvania, however, is really in play.
Romneys final-day schedule reflects his strategy. On Tuesday, he will campaign in Pittsburgh, Pa., and Cleveland, Ohio, according to campaign aides. Pennsylvania is one of the states where the president is under 50 percent, says Kevin Madden, a Romney aide. In the western part of the state, near Pittsburgh, there is a large coal economy and the president is losing support there. We are confident that the governor can do well in that area and in the Philadelphia suburbs, especially with independents.
Yet as Pennsylvania rises, Ohio continues to be an uphill battle for Romney. Hes heading to Cleveland, part of a manufacturing region in northeast Ohio, hoping to win over disgruntled blue-collar workers in the final hours. Were doing everything we can, but I dont see a lot in Ohio that points to a clear Republican victory, says a Romney insider. The president has been hammering us for months, and the auto bailout is popular.
Its been over a century since a Republican has won the White House without winning Ohio, but Romney advisers are confident that they can figure out a path to 270 electoral votes should Ohio and its 18 electoral votes go blue.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
Virginia is crucial, that's the one to watch early tomorrow.
I'm not saying any of this to be optimistic or pessimistic, if it's decisive one way or another, it will be known in short order. But if it's close, here's what we should be watching most closely.
Here are the scenarios:
Romney takes all the McCain 2008 states, plus NC VA FL IN CO. This yields 257 EVs. Then only one of the following must be won for a Romney victory:
1. OH(18) -or-
2. PA(20) -or-
3. MI(16) -or-
4. MN(10) + [NH(4) or IA(6) or NV(6)] -or-
5. WI(10) + [NH(4) or IA(6) or NV(6)] -or-
6. NV(6) + IA(6) (the tie scenario).
You forgot one:
7. NH(4) + IA(6) + NV(6)
8. MN(10) + WI(10) (probably the long shot)
Say what? This is not what you want to hear from the Romney people the night before elections day. I thought PA was to expand the map. This guy's making it sound like it's a necessary alternative.
Say what? This is not what you want to hear from the Romney people the night before election day. I thought PA was to expand the map. This guy's making it sound like it's a necessary alternative.
You can have the (6a) where Romney gets the one EC from Maine.
Romney was interviewed on his plane by Greta tonight and he said Ohio is done... he says he will win Ohio and the presidency and that trumps any campaign worker... named or otherwise.
I think Wisconsin is the the surprise. Pick up WI and one a small state and you don’t need Ohio.
Republicans have gained between 8.9% and 12.9% in voter self identification since 2008. These are numbers are generated by in depth studies over tens of thousands of interviews with voters. If we gain even the low end of this range, all this talk is garbage as its going to be a clean sweep.
Do you think Romney would say he is going to lose Ohio? If Romney had it in the bag, he wouldn’t be going to PA and Ohio on election day. I’m not pessimistic or optimistic it’s up for grabs.
Be prepared for the media to do everything it can to suppress Republican votes, including calling as many states for Obama as early as they can and dragging their heels calling any states for Romney that aren’t blatantly obvious. That means guys out West will be voting thinking Obama is ahead and folks in the East going to bed with the illusion that Obama is going to win. When they wake up the next morning, they’re going to assume that Republicans stole the election again with dirty tricks when, in reality, the media vastly overstated Obama’s victories and downplayed Romney’s until the inevitable truth could no longer be avoided.
This theory is closer to reality than I want to think. I tend to agree. I’ll be flipping between CNN and Fox. I think NBCABCCBS will fall for this, CNN and Fox, not so much. As biased as CNN is they get huge numbers for their election night coverage because they are pretty good at it.
That statement seems counter to the Romney “internals” showing a 1 point lead. So much smoke-screening, I guess.
Various sources have reported that Romney’s margins in Ohio have varied between +2 and -2 over the past couple of weeks. This insider is saying Ohio is unpredictable because of that variation.
If the extremely late deciders break even remotely for Romney, he will win. If they don’t, then it will be very, very close and could go either way.
We should get a definitive answer tomorrow. Personally, I like our chances.
This report is actually very depressing and I fear it may be close to the truth. My nightmare is that the surprise state outcomes that all expect will not be Romney picking off a state but instead will be Obama taking a state we are counting on like Virginia. Sorry for getting pessimistic but there it is. Let’s hope that even the Romney camp is happily surprised by what happens with turnout tomorrow.
Doesn’t counter it at all. Just the reality of the situation.
The number has been bouncing around for the last few weeks and could change again tomorrow.
If Romney had it in the bag, he wouldnt be going to PA and Ohio on election day
I saw his face... the face of his wife and the demeanor on the plane. I know what I saw and it was a man that knows he is the next president of the US.
I think it shows Romney is willing to keep working...good sign....while BO is off to play basketball....
They definitely did so in 2000, esp in Florida. I remember when they called Florida for Gore. I pulled in the county by county data from Florida from 1996 and 1992 and started projecting final totals for Florida based on percent of precincts in -- and my conclusion was "this is too close to call".
Around 2 a.m. they called Florida for Bush (largely due to a clerical error), but I looked at the numbers again, and it was clear that it was too close to call.
The lesson to me was that these people rely far too much on exit polls and guesswork and not enough on the actual numbers. Since then I've set up spreadsheets with county by county results for key states and pull in the results as they come in and see where things are headed. It's easier when it's a one-key-state election (like the Scott Walker recall), but it's really the only way to get a clear picture.
The real key, especially for 50-50 counties, is how far ahead or behind the candidate is running compared to his same-party counterpart in the most recent close election. If Romney, for instance, is running within 1 point of Bush 2004 in various closely contested Ohio counties, that's a good sign (because then it comes down to turnout and margin in Cuyahoga and Obama's going to have to come close to his 2008 turnout *and* margin).
lots of scenarios....
I hope people are right....if we get Ohio its over..(if we hold Col, et al)
I have to tell myself and I guess we all have to is that Romney is a master businessman and has handled this campaign suberbly and paced just right....we have to believe that he and his people know what they're doing....
just in case...LORD GOD please send your grace.....
btw....I just love these “insiders” who remain nameless....
If Oiho votes for the Contamination ill never eat Skyline Chili again.
I take very seriously his wife's declaration that "this man will not fail." I think it is fully in his character to keep on even though he is confident of victory. I think that is part of his moral character. It certainly is sustained by his biography.
Or my favorite: New Hampshire +1 vote in Maine + Washington DC?
this puppy is dead!!!
53 in the senate and
no losses in the house
Conservatives are going to have the weirdest smiles on their faces for the longest time
happy new year everyone
the bloody nightmare is over
That sums up the differences between the two right there.
I don't think we are going to see Mitt Romney out on the golf course or playing basketball all that much when he gets in. Mitt Romney has worked all his life. Obama has never held a real job and just like your average shiftless bum, he feels that every time he lifts a finger to do something, he deserves a vacation or a reward.
You forgot one:
7. NH(4) + IA(6) + NV(6)
Would rather not have the tie, as it could lead to Biden being VP.