Skip to comments.At this time in 2004, Bush internals in Wisconsin
Posted on 11/05/2012 7:09:23 PM PST by Crimson Elephant
On the final night of tracking, Bush Cheney 2004 internal polling had Bush down 8.0% to (42-50) in Wisconsin. Kerry won, but by only 0.4%
I'd say this bodes well for WI!
I would add he also notes that Romney is in a similar spot to Bush in Iowa at this time when Bush won it...needing a similar Election Day turnout to overcome early #s.
I do think 2004 is the template for analyzing tomorrow night. Not 2008.
Whatever they put in Wisconsin cheese, it’s not a preservative.
What is his twitter handle?
We are battle tested in the Badger State. Early voting here is slightly better than June when we won the recall by 6%.
I am predicting President Obama will take and early lead tomorrow...
Until all the Republicans get off work.
No. That was from a fake twitter acount.
If we can vote for Walker twice in two years we can certainly vote for Romney/Ryan in a landslide. Here it comes!
One thing that’s very encouraging to me is on the day of election, when REAL PEOPLE actually vote, republicans tend to easily outperform what the pre-election polls indicate. Speaking of WI, the recall election is a good example of this. Walker was either slightly down, or ‘dead heat’ in the polls, and he easily retained his office(...the dems threw everything they had at him). I could go on and on.
Even in 2008, McCain was up for the slaughter according to the polls. Though he lost badly, it wasn’t THAT bad when real votes were cast/counted.
With Romney up 1, or tied, I’m really liking his chances! Especially considering how even in the loaded polls, 0bama can hardly EVER manage to pull the magic 50% mark. I believe he has a ceiling somewhere in the 45-48% neighborhood.
pew did NOT have obama at 50%... they PROJECTED him winning with 50%. cnn has him at 50% with an 11% plus “D” turnout. Both are impossible and one is just an outright guess made of wishes and dreams.
This election cycle, the media has defended their oversampled Democrat polling saying they were basing it off of 2008, not 2010 (when voters had already begun to make their non-support of Obama and Obamacare present).
The Obama wow factor was a one trick pony. They have to be nuts to expect that sort of enthusiasm for Obama the second time around when his own best fans have been falling away at a rate of 10% or better.
I suspect Dem turnout will be roughly that of 2004, and GOP turnout that of 2010.
The only Obama mural I’ve seen this year is an update on a 2008 HOPE mural that was kept up all 4 years.
No wheatpasted pop-art posters. No hipster t-shirts at the clothing stores.
The 2008 voters have grown older, if not always wiser.
Yes, they are fools that lie to themselves.