Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Rasmussen Party Id: Republicans +5.8 (All Time Record)
Rasmussen Reports ^ | 11/05/2012 | Scott Rasmussen

Posted on 11/05/2012 9:22:53 AM PST by nhwingut

Oct 2012: Republican: 39.1% Democrat: 33.3% Other: 27.5% (R+5.8%)

Sep 2012: Republican: 36.8% Democrat: 34.2% Other: 29.0% (R+2.6%)

(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; partyid; polls
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-80 ... 161-163 next last
To: nhwingut

Is Ras going to release November?


41 posted on 11/05/2012 9:57:56 AM PST by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: DAC21

CEOs are the last people you want to rely on for how things are going.

CEO contact with real people is minimal. They drive by the common folk’s middle class homes in their chauffered limos on their way to the executive suite where they will be surrounded suck-up yes-men.

Their outside contacts are limited K-Street lawyers and lobbyists who are fighting to get them tax breaks and corporate welfare. For that, Obama is a great guy.

They are as sheltered and narrow-minded as the pundits and media types who only talk to each other and their politician friends.


42 posted on 11/05/2012 9:59:46 AM PST by oldbill
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: trappedincanuckistan

Yes, they are different. The trouble most of us are having with the pollsters is this: Self-identifying Republicans outnumber Democrats by five or ten percent. Generally, voter intensity is said to be favoring Republicans by about ten percent. That means the Republican advantage will be GREATER. Generally, pollsters are saying independents favor Romney by about ten percent. Romney’s advantage should grow, again. Yet, they are just about all saying the race is tied. Something does not add up.


43 posted on 11/05/2012 10:01:06 AM PST by liberlog
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: KansasGirl

Nevermind, this is as of October 31. Hmmmm...why is he not reflecting this in his polls?


44 posted on 11/05/2012 10:01:06 AM PST by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 41 | View Replies]

To: plushaye

From business perspective, it is always better to be wrong when all your competitors are wrong, than to be wrong when all your competitors are right. Rasumssen sees the competitive landscape and decides to call it similarly to everyone else, so that if they’re all wrong, he doesn’t get singled out.


45 posted on 11/05/2012 10:01:35 AM PST by Thane_Banquo (Support hate crime laws: Because some victims are more equal than others.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: TMA62

My guess is that, among other things, other pollsters saw the way Axelrod put the arm on Gallup (for which he should swing) and are trying to avoid a similar experience. They particularly don’t want to be seen as “favoring” Romney while Obama is throwing his post-election tantrum and looking for people to blame for his loss.


46 posted on 11/05/2012 10:02:53 AM PST by Arm_Bears (Be cheerful, be confident, and VOTE!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: DAC21
"Supposedly Axelrod told some connected folks that it is baked in, it’s a done deal 100% guaranteed."

Oh. Well. I guess that settles it then./sarc.

47 posted on 11/05/2012 10:04:06 AM PST by Reo (the 4th Estate is a 5th Column)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: DAC21

So basically they are saying they are stealing the election.


48 posted on 11/05/2012 10:04:37 AM PST by Lady Heron
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: nhwingut

Buried in one of Nate Silvers recent articles is this gem:

Mr. Romney would not be in much danger of losing the Electoral College if he won the popular vote by more than about 1.5 percentage points. For example, he would be about a 95 percent favorite in the Electoral College if he won the popular vote by two percentage points, according to the forecast model.

But with national polls now showing a slight edge for Mr. Obama, these outcomes have become less likely. If Mr. Romney wins the popular vote, it may be only barely, and that might not be enough for him to win the Electoral College.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/state-and-national-polls-come-into-better-alignment/


49 posted on 11/05/2012 10:04:39 AM PST by Raycpa
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ScottinVA

[ Kind of odd that Ras didn’t link this on his homepage. ]

I thought so too. He usually does!


50 posted on 11/05/2012 10:05:48 AM PST by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 32 | View Replies]

To: Reo
Oh. Well. I guess that settles it then./sarc.

I love posters who show up on threads and post stuff that has nothing to do with the topic, only to attempt to depress others.

Charlie Gasperino? Please.
51 posted on 11/05/2012 10:06:18 AM PST by nhwingut (Get out & Vote as if your life was on the line. Because it is.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 47 | View Replies]

To: Red Steel

That’s what I thought. I just got the impression that some people up thread were confusing the two. Just because someone identiufies as something doesn’t mean they are going to vote. It’s only important when seen through the lense of how likely people that identify with a particular group will vote. Correct?


52 posted on 11/05/2012 10:06:51 AM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 35 | View Replies]

To: Sarah Barracuda

Networks fear loss of revenue if the election is called early, and people head to bed...


53 posted on 11/05/2012 10:07:56 AM PST by who knows what evil? (G-d saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.org.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 37 | View Replies]

To: xzins
"he points out that Rasmussen says 12% of Republicans claim they are voting for Obama."

That's discouraging, but iirc it was noticeably higher v. McLame. We also have X amount of "don't-call-me-racist" response.

None of this late swing to R's has any relevance upon this 12%. I's, nor D's would change party affiliation to Republican to vote for Obie.

54 posted on 11/05/2012 10:08:53 AM PST by chiller (Sky is the limit with max T-Partiers in the House and Senate to stifle the RINOs)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 33 | View Replies]

To: Lacey2

I wish Rasmussen would answer that question.


55 posted on 11/05/2012 10:10:03 AM PST by WashingtonSource
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: nhwingut

The reason polls run so heavily Democrat is to account for voter fraud.


56 posted on 11/05/2012 10:10:36 AM PST by AppyPappy (If you really want to annoy someone, point out something obvious that they are trying hard to ignore)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: nhwingut

So why the heck is he using D+2 in his turnout model?


57 posted on 11/05/2012 10:11:00 AM PST by kevao (Hey, Obama: The 1930s called, they want their economic policy back.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: nhwingut
So party ID is R +5.8%; Romney has a huge lead with 'independents' (many of whom are disgruntled conservatives who switched from R to I), and Romney only has a 1-point lead?

ROTFLMAOPIMP...'math is hard, indeed!'

58 posted on 11/05/2012 10:11:21 AM PST by who knows what evil? (G-d saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.org.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Lacey2

Well IF this is correct Romney will win by double digits. When you aggregate all the national polls (which include 30k+ respondents) the numbers break as follows:

Dems: O 91.2%, R 7.6%, U/O 1.2%
Reps: O4.7%, R 94.5%, U/O 0.8%
Indies: 0 38.1%, R 47.7%, U/O 14.2%

If we allocate 6% of the indies to the third party candidates, Have the undecided breal 70/30 to Romney, and apply the Ras party affiliation model the election would turn out as follows:

Romney 54.7%
Obama 43.6%
Third party 1.7%

This sort of total blowout would of course have some other benefits, The Senate races would break R, and the Lib lackey’s in the MSM would be totally discredited.

Amazed that Ras is using a +3% D model in his samples.


59 posted on 11/05/2012 10:11:28 AM PST by Leto
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: nhwingut

Too bad his polls are not showing that republican swing. He still has a 3 or 4 % dem skew


60 posted on 11/05/2012 10:12:01 AM PST by Nifster
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-80 ... 161-163 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson