Skip to comments.NATE SILVER: Obama's Odds Of Winning Have Now Hit An Overwhelming 86%
Posted on 11/05/2012 9:19:17 AM PST by SeekAndFind
With one day to go in the U.S. presidential election, Obama's probability of winning has reached 86%, according to New York Times polling guru Nate Silver.
Betting markets Intrade and Betfair also show the President maintaining a strong (but less extreme) lead. These assessments come despite the continued release of some polls that look good for Romney. The difference between the national polls and the betting markets, some polling experts say, is that the national polls focus on the popular vote, whereas Silver's odds focus on state-by-state polls aimed at determining the winner of the electoral college and, with it, the Presidency. Nate Silver's model also averages hundreds of polls.
Nate Silver is so confident in his polling model that he publicly offered to bet MSNBC host Joe Scarborough who would win the election. Scarborough, who maintains that the election is a "toss-up," has not accepted the challenge.
Let's go to the data...
First, Nate Silver now gives Obama 86% chance of reelection. That's up from a post-first-debate low of ~60% three weeks ago, and it's higher than the 80% previous all-time peak Obama hit just before the first debate.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
Right to the end, Silver is going down in epic flames and taking his DU’ers with him. LoL.
I stepped outside of my conservative bubble briefly last night. I had no idea the lefties were so convinced they were going to win too. Not being an Eeyore, but I was a little unnerved by it.
Then I went over to Breitbart's and they were there in all there true to form vileness. I figured if they were so sure they were winning why would they be trolling at Breitbarts?
Nate Silver’s confidence depends on an accurate reading of the 9% of the voting public who have been polled.
It says nothing about the 90% who have NOT been contacted and whose voting intentions remain unknown.
That’s a big leap to take and the pollsters are not even going that far!
My understanding is that all Silver does is compile polls that heavily oversample Democrats.
When Romney is declared the winner tomorrow night the first thing I’m going to post on my Facebook page for all my liberal “friends” is “Nate Silver needs to send out his resume.”
...”and if he doesn’t win you’ll all know you got SCROOOOOOOOD by Redneck Tea Party RACISTS and Diebold voting machines...”
Here's Captain Cherry Pick on the Rachel Maddow show.
close- he cherrypicks polls that figure in on his agenda....he’s gone out of his way to berate Rasmussen’s polls in the past even though the facts were on Rasmussen’s side:
Bingo! It’s clear that Silver understands numbers, but his underlying assumptions are subjective and shifting. The first red flag is the fact that he assigns a probability of victory. No pollster does that because that isn’t what pollsters do.
better yet- leave a post on his twitter page....
Yep. Garbage in, garbage out.
Good grief. What an incredible degree of self-delusion, which is what I think it is. I don’t think he is lying, so much as he is a rabid believer in the Communist cause.
Aw man, really? 86% chance Obama will win? Jeez. I mean that’s a lot. I was gonna vote for Romney and stuff but if there’s only a 14% he’ll win, I mean, what’s the point? There’s gonna be long lines and waiting. And who knows what the weather might do. I’m so depressed. I guess I’ll just stay at home and watch TV.
Does this guy think everyone is stupid? I saw people stand in line at Chick-fil-A for a couple of hours to buy a damn sandwich! Are all those people going to vote for Obama?
Obama shows up somewhere and 4000 people come out to see him. Meanwhile, Romney shows up at a rally and almost 30,000 people come to see him! Are those people going to vote for Obama, too?
According to this guy we should just skip the election altogether and name Obama “President for Life.”
I don’t think so.
Short of me ending up in the hospital for some reason I’m voting tomorrow.
I’ll be up at 4 AM, be at work at 6 AM, and leave work an hour and a half early at 4:30 PM to vote. I should get to the polling station around 5:15 if I’m lucky. Then I’ll stand in line. I don’t care if I stand there until after 8. I’m voting! And nothing this ding-dong says will change that!
(And I ain’t a votin’ fer Obama!(spit))
Posted the story the other day. Turns out his crazily accurate predictions in 2008 were because Obama’s campaign was feeding him their internal polling info. They signed a confidentiality agreement. TOTAL FRAUD!
The consequence will be that if Romney wins, there will be cries of there being an election-stealing conspiracy, leading to violence.
Nate Silver used to post in a poker forum as Nate tha’ Great. In 2004 he
started a Swing State prediction contest.
He got the election wrong predicting a Kerry win. Kerry 275, Bush 263.
The states he got wrong:
He said Kerry would win AR, IA, and OH. Bush won all 3.
He said Bush would win WI. Kerry won it.
Nate has been wrong many times, and sometimes he guesses right too. But he
certainly is no expert, and certainly no better than any other commentator
or numbers cruncher.
I'm going to be at the poll when it opens (6:30 am in PA) and vote then. I hope to avoid the worst of the lines that way.
My daughter uses Facebook for business purposes and she showed me a sample of the angry posts from liberals today declaring that Romney is going down, big time. Many say that Romney shouldn’t bother to continue to campaign. ???
If Obama supporters are confident that O has it in the bag, why are they so angry?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.