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KSTP/SurveyUSA Poll Results: Minn. Amendments; Presidential Race
KSTP-TV (ABC Affiliate in Minneapolis-St Paul) ^ | 11/04/12 | Scott Theisen - Staff Reporter

Posted on 11/04/2012 9:14:13 PM PST by MplsSteve

A constitutional amendment that would define marriage in Minnesota as between 1 man and 1 woman remains today as it was 2 weeks ago, nose-to-nose, too-close-to-call, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in the Twin Cities. 48% of Minnesota likely voters today vote Yes on the marriage amendment, 47% vote No, within the survey's possible sources of error. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 2 weeks ago, Yes is up 1 point, No is up 1 point. Yes had led by 1, Yes still leads by 1. Any outcome is possible.

In an election in Minnesota today for President of the United States, Barack Obama defeats Mitt Romney 50% to 43%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 2 weeks ago, Obama is flat, Romney is up 3 points. Obama had led by 10, now leads by 7, with 7 days of the campaign remaining.

(Excerpt) Read more at kstp.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Minnesota
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; elections; mn2012; polling
Folks, I just saw this a while ago and posted it.

Unfortunately, I couldn't find the crosstabs on this poll. Maybe someone else can. But given how Minnesota votes, maybe this is not out of the question.

The traditional marriage amendment seems to be fading somewhat although this type of amendment votes always underperforms in polling. But the gay rights groups, the business community and just about everyone else has been spending money like crazy to stop this amendment from passing.

On the positive side, the Voter ID amendment seems to be passing well enough. I was out earlier today dropping lit for the Yes vote.

Comments or opinions - anyone?

1 posted on 11/04/2012 9:14:25 PM PST by MplsSteve
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To: NorthWoody; Manic_Episode; mikethevike; coder2; AmericanChef; Reaganesque; ER Doc; lesser_satan; ...

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2 posted on 11/04/2012 9:17:49 PM PST by MplsSteve (General Mills is pro-gay marriage! Boycott their products!)
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To: MplsSteve

Minnesota, Vote Yes on 1 Man 1 Woman Marriage.


3 posted on 11/04/2012 9:20:38 PM PST by Steelers6
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To: MplsSteve

Minnesota, Vote Yes on 1 Man 1 Woman Marriage.


4 posted on 11/04/2012 9:20:49 PM PST by Steelers6
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To: MplsSteve

Minnesota, Vote Yes on 1 Man 1 Woman Marriage.


5 posted on 11/04/2012 9:21:00 PM PST by Steelers6
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To: MplsSteve
Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 state of MN adults 10/26/12 through 10/28/12.

This is an old poll, conducted on weekend (Fri-Sun) at the height of concerns about Sandy.

6 posted on 11/04/2012 9:24:12 PM PST by paudio (5Bs: Bain, Big-bird, Binders, Bayonets, and... Bullshiter ! <= 0bama's campaign message)
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To: MplsSteve

crosstabs show R 30% D 37% I 28%

D+7 sample.


7 posted on 11/04/2012 9:28:33 PM PST by smoothsailing
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To: MplsSteve

Big skew to Democrats. In my opinion, this poll was in line with other polls prior to the big push, giving Obama a lead of 4 or 5 points after you take out the skew. This skew would mean that, at the time, the constitutional amendment to change the meaning of marriage was really behind by several points, not a toss-up.


8 posted on 11/04/2012 9:30:24 PM PST by Redmen4ever
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To: All

Breaking News Regarding This Post:

According to a tweet by Tom Hauser, KSTP’s political reporter, he says:

KSTP?SurveyUSA: New poll shows Obama leading Romney 52% to 41%. Margin of Error +-4.%. Obama lead was 7 points earlier this week. Now 11.

Again, I have no crosstabs for anyone. Just the verbatimt tweet above. Other than a visit by sleazy Bill Clinton, I see no apparent reason why Obama’s margin nshould increase;.

Anyone?


9 posted on 11/04/2012 9:34:57 PM PST by MplsSteve (General Mills is pro-gay marriage! Boycott their products!)
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To: MplsSteve
My hunch regarding the marriage amendment is that the polling is tilted to the NO side because of the tremendous pressure from the "vote no" campaign. A lot of Minnesotans just don't like confrontation and will tell the questioner what they think is the popular answer. The privacy of the polling booth will reveal their values and we will see that reflected Tuesday evening, one way or the other - I'm guessing the amendment will prevail.

The voter ID should pass comfortably, thank you for your work on the campaign.

At the annual deer camp this weekend there were 12 adults. 9 were voting R/R, 1 knucklehead was voting for Zero, 1 is a libertarian that will throw away his vote and 1 just can't be bothered.

All except for the 1 that can't be bothered stated they would vote for voter ID (even the zero voter.

We didn't get into the marriage amendment since anything related to homosexuals is just a generally avoided topic.

10 posted on 11/04/2012 9:35:44 PM PST by voteNRA (A citizenry armed with rifles simply cannot be tyrannized)
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To: MplsSteve; SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; ...

Poll ping. More trying to papers.


11 posted on 11/04/2012 9:37:39 PM PST by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
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To: smoothsailing

Thank you for spotting the crosstabs. My sleep-deprived brain (I’ve been out campaigning for a few days) didn’t see it.


12 posted on 11/04/2012 9:42:47 PM PST by MplsSteve (General Mills is pro-gay marriage! Boycott their products!)
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To: MplsSteve

Glad to help. :)


13 posted on 11/04/2012 9:50:11 PM PST by smoothsailing
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To: MplsSteve

Obama won by 10 in 2008. Things must be going well in Minnesota for him to increase his lead there while everywhere else his lead is reduced by large margins. The water?


14 posted on 11/04/2012 9:52:52 PM PST by jwalsh07
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To: MplsSteve

The amendment it tied, so we are to believe that a good chunk of folks that are voting against gay marriage are voting for the clown that supports it? Is Minn the lone state that voted for Mondale too? Something seems off kilter.


15 posted on 11/04/2012 11:33:10 PM PST by ScottinSacto (Liberals support abortion on demand and gay marriage....sounds like a great strategic plan!)
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To: ScottinSacto

Well, I go (& volunteer) at the biggest attending church in Minnesota, 18,000 regular attenders.

They don’t comment on political matters, BUT said consult the Bible with their questions and use that as your supreme law of the land.

Then, strongly encouraged EVERYONE to get out and vote. Then pray for our Country.

Hopefully, we can tilt it.


16 posted on 11/05/2012 2:50:47 AM PST by LiveFreeOrDie2001 (My Birthday is on Election Day. Wish me a VERY Happy Birthday!)
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To: voteNRA

Is the NRA GOTV effort working rural and exurban as much as they claim to be?


17 posted on 11/05/2012 4:50:12 AM PST by MSF BU (n)
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To: smoothsailing

It may not be D+7, but I have no doubt that Minnesota has more DFL’ers (that is Demoncrat for you in other states) than it does Republicans. Also, many of the Independents there are far left of the Demoncrats. It has been many years since I lived in Minnesota, but I would be surprised if it goes for Romney.


18 posted on 11/05/2012 5:46:58 AM PST by jim_trent
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To: jim_trent
Minnesota has more DFL’ers (that is Demoncrat for you in other states) than it does Republicans.

I noticed DFL in the crosstabs. What do the letters stand for?

19 posted on 11/05/2012 6:07:36 AM PST by smoothsailing
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To: smoothsailing

DFL = Demoncrat/Farmer/Labor party


20 posted on 11/05/2012 6:31:13 AM PST by jim_trent
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To: jim_trent

Thanks. Those farmers are certainly running with a bad crowd. Shame on them.


21 posted on 11/05/2012 6:57:25 AM PST by smoothsailing
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To: smoothsailing

DFL = Dumb ******* Losers


22 posted on 11/05/2012 7:03:33 AM PST by Fresh Wind (If Obama is an empty chair, then Biden is the whoopee cushion.)
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To: MSF BU
"Is the NRA GOTV effort working rural and exurban as much as they claim to be?"

Very good question. I am not seeing it here in MN but that wouldn't necessarily mean much since we have just attracted national attention in the last couple of weeks.

It would be interesting to find out what the NRA has been doing in states like PA, OH, MI or out West, specifically Colorado.

23 posted on 11/05/2012 7:48:04 AM PST by voteNRA (A citizenry armed with rifles simply cannot be tyrannized)
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