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Gravis Nationwide Poll: R 48%, 0 48% (40% Dem, 32% GOP
Gravis ^

Posted on 11/04/2012 7:57:34 PM PST by Arthurio

· President Obama and Governor Romney are in a dead heat nationwide, each with 48 percent of the vote.

· President Obama leads by 8 percentage points (52 to 44 percent) among early voters, while Governor Romney leads President Obama by 2 percentage points among those who have yet to cast their ballots.

· 46 percent approve of the President’s job performance, while 49 percent do not approve of the president’s performance.

· Similarly 45 percent of likely voters nationwide think the country is headed in the right direction, while 47 percent think it is headed in the wrong direction.

(Excerpt) Read more at gravispolls.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS:
Gravis Marketing conducted an automated survey of 872 likely voters in nationwide on November 3, 2012-November 5, 2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.3% and higher for subgroups.
1 posted on 11/04/2012 7:57:34 PM PST by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio

How/Why are they coming up with an 8 point enthusiasm gap?


2 posted on 11/04/2012 7:59:00 PM PST by Tea Party Terrorist (Your tattoo looks stupid.)
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To: Arthurio; SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; ...

Poll ping.


3 posted on 11/04/2012 7:59:52 PM PST by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
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To: Arthurio

I really wish ONE of these would have Romney leading...


4 posted on 11/04/2012 8:00:38 PM PST by PatrickHaggerty
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To: Arthurio

Funny how every poll has it tied magically.


5 posted on 11/04/2012 8:01:43 PM PST by The Conservative Goddess
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To: Arthurio

Another laughable +8 poll.

Look at the approve/disapprove numbers and the right track/wrong track numbers. Obama is cooked.


6 posted on 11/04/2012 8:02:11 PM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: Arthurio

Another great poll for Romney. Indy’s go 18% for Romney. +8 D sample. This means probably a 5-6 point Romney win Nationwide if you look at an unskewed polling sample. Actually many of the polls I think would be pretty similar if they all weighted D/R/I the same or within a couple points. The key is the Indy’s are going to Romney in most every poll and many by double digits. NO WAY that Romney doesn’t win , rather soundly, if Indy’s vote Romney by 8% or more.


7 posted on 11/04/2012 8:02:51 PM PST by shoedog
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To: Arthurio

They show the race “tied” so that when Obama loses they can say “Well we showed it tied, didn’t think the GOP enthusiasm would be that high” they are trying to give themselves cover


8 posted on 11/04/2012 8:04:06 PM PST by Sarah Barracuda
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To: Arthurio

Strange, I thought Gallup was predicting an R+3 advantage in this election. I guess Gravis didn’t get the memo.


9 posted on 11/04/2012 8:04:22 PM PST by Viennacon
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To: Tea Party Terrorist
How/Why are they coming up with an 8 point enthusiasm gap?

Either they are trying to mirror the heavy democrat turnout of 2008 (not going to be anywhere close to that this year) or

Conservative republicans tend to ignore pollsters much more than dems.

Anecdata shows the enthusiasm in our favor. RR rallies have 20 fold more audience members than the Bamster. Traditional lefty newspapers are tripping over themselves to endorse Romney.

Bottomline: Polling (using the current methodology anyway) is going the way of the buggy whip.

10 posted on 11/04/2012 8:05:18 PM PST by RightWingNilla
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To: Arthurio

D+8. Another very encouraging poll. So Romney will win at least 54% of the vote. Wicked good.


11 posted on 11/04/2012 8:09:14 PM PST by ConservativeInPA (I advocate indentured servitude for the 47% until the national debt is eliminated.)
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To: PatrickHaggerty

Romney is leading. It is not going to be D+8 or D+11 (CNN). And look how Romney is winning indy’s.


12 posted on 11/04/2012 8:11:05 PM PST by gswilder
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To: Arthurio

D+8 wow. Hey MSM why don’t you just do D+16 or D+20? Because that would give you the results that you really want!


13 posted on 11/04/2012 8:12:15 PM PST by erod (I'm a Chicagoan till Chicago ends...)
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To: PatrickHaggerty

How can ROmney lead in polls with +8 and +11 D? Ignore those polls, they’re done and compiled by leftwing retards. Now if Gallup comes out tomorrow with a tie or O ahead you’ll have something to worry about. But PPP andCNN are ajoke. Unprofessional. OF course they could be right but Obama won Ohio last time by 4.5 and that will be his highwater mark. PPP polls +8 D. Garbage.


14 posted on 11/04/2012 8:13:06 PM PST by jwalsh07
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To: gswilder

Yes big time. The new CNN poll Independents: Romney 59% Obama 37% .


15 posted on 11/04/2012 8:14:47 PM PST by Red Steel
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To: Arthurio

The sample was Nov. 3-5? November 5 is tomorrow. What’s up with that? So D+7 instead of D+8 would have Romney up by 1%?


16 posted on 11/04/2012 8:17:26 PM PST by Combat_Liberalism
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To: jwalsh07

+7 in 2008 was a record turnout advantage. Does anyone really believe people are going to turn out for Obama in larger numbers than 2008? Look at all the signs...


17 posted on 11/04/2012 8:18:58 PM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: trappedincanuckistan

The pollsters have lost their minds if they think the turnout will be +8 Democrat.


18 posted on 11/04/2012 8:24:28 PM PST by rdl6989 (January 20, 2013 The end of an error.)
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To: Arthurio

Man, everyone is pulling their punches


19 posted on 11/04/2012 8:24:44 PM PST by Ravi
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To: Sarah Barracuda

“They show the race “tied” so that when Obama loses they can say “Well we showed it tied, didn’t think the GOP enthusiasm would be that high” they are trying to give themselves cover”

You hit the nail right on the head. These polling outfits have a huge dilemma — most are so invested in Obama that they cannot reveal the truth, or it would depress their base. But they can’t afford to ruin their credibility either. So they are using these ties as a cop out so that they couldn’t really be wrong cause they had the race “going either way.”


20 posted on 11/04/2012 8:25:33 PM PST by lquist1
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To: rdl6989

Absolutely. Didn’t Gallup figure R+3?


21 posted on 11/04/2012 8:27:22 PM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: Ravi
Man, everyone is pulling their punches

If they came out and declared the winner, and were wrong, they would have egg on their face.

But if they declare it even steven, that way whoever wins, they merely say it was because the other side did not come out in sufficient numbers.

Win/Win, except they are wusses for not committing.

Oh, BTW, Romney, walking away, to the chagrin of some even on this site.

22 posted on 11/04/2012 8:29:55 PM PST by going hot (Happiness is a momma deuce)
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To: lquist1

This poll is a disaster for Obama.

The sample is 64% white. Whites were 74% of the electorate in 2008 and McCain won them 55-43.

Do the math.


23 posted on 11/04/2012 8:30:30 PM PST by jwb0581 (Borders, Language, Culture)
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To: shoedog
"Another great poll for Romney. Indy’s go 18% for Romney. +8 D sample."

Almost mirrors the CNN poll internals.

NO WAY that Romney doesn’t win

Right, only about 32 hours until the final day election polls open up. Bye Obama.

24 posted on 11/04/2012 8:38:44 PM PST by Red Steel
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To: Arthurio

The tentativeness and inconsistency of these polls reminds me of the final days of the ‘80 campaign, but with a heaping helping of PC Affirmative Action White guilt.


25 posted on 11/04/2012 9:03:20 PM PST by The Fop (Excuse me while I clean the saliva out of my racist dog whistle)
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To: trappedincanuckistan

If the turnout is even R+1, this thing is going to be a landslide.


26 posted on 11/04/2012 9:03:59 PM PST by Viennacon
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To: Viennacon

For sure. I’ve gotta believe based on the signs I’ve seen there will be a small Republican turnout advasntage.


27 posted on 11/04/2012 9:09:50 PM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: jwalsh07

I am no expert on polling and would welcome any insight re this question: is it possible that all the D+ polls that also show independents heavy for Romney are classifying more soft R’s than soft D’s as independents? The reason I ask is that the polls with the highest D+ also seem to show the highest independents for Romney. I agree that PPP can’t be trusted. The thing that I can’t get is that the breakdowns are all over the map but we can’t seem to get a lead for Romney no matter how the internals break out.


28 posted on 11/04/2012 9:11:22 PM PST by Uncle Augie
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To: Uncle Augie

Not easy to know. Their internals aren’t that detailed. But certainly what you suggest is a possibility. Hell, anythings possible this time around. For instance wouldn’t it be something if Romney loses Virginia and wins Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan? LOL


29 posted on 11/04/2012 9:15:38 PM PST by jwalsh07
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To: jwalsh07

I’d take WI, MN and MI. I have real hope for WI. As for MI, I grew up there and can remember the first Governor Romney. That was a different time and place. I will be shocked and proud if MI goes Romney.


30 posted on 11/04/2012 9:32:50 PM PST by Uncle Augie
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To: Arthurio

Holy $&?€#...did anyone notice the biggest problem with this poll - much worse even than the D+8?

They have the white voting percentage at only 64%!!

This is insanely low. 2008 was 78% by comparison.

I won’t often say this, but THIS poll is complete crap.

Hank


31 posted on 11/04/2012 10:35:29 PM PST by County Agent Hank Kimball (Myth Romney is a vile Fabian Socialist - his opponent is infinitely worse. How did it come to this?)
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball

Just noticed that they have an “other” option for race. Most polls do not. That may be the reason...


32 posted on 11/04/2012 11:21:35 PM PST by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio

My gut instinct is that all these polls are BS. I really feel like most Americans are ready to kick him out. I don’t really understand how any one other than the loony left would even consider voting for him.

Then I hear people who I know have above average intelligence, say they think he hasn’t done so bad, and that really makes me very uncertain.


33 posted on 11/05/2012 12:02:10 AM PST by greeneyes (Moderation in defense of your country is NO virtue. Let Freedom Ring.)
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To: Arthurio

Hey here is the kicker - another poll oversampling Democrats by +8 - and Bamster still cannot crack 50%!

I feel pretty good about tomorrow.

Even with the 2008 turnout model they’re still using, O cannot get over the top.

When an incumbent President is polling under 50% the final day before the election, that’s all that really matters.


34 posted on 11/05/2012 1:25:29 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Arthurio

My understanding as to why the numbers on so many of these polls look out of whack is because the pollsters are not weighting the polls to an specific previous model.

If a poll, say this one, decides they will contact 874 voters and ask them a series of questions, they will accept the input of the 1st 874 recipients of the call who agree to answer the questions. They will then break down the demographics of those folks as to Party, race, etc. So if of the 874 who answered the questions only 64% identified themselves as white, that is the number they report. Same for party affiliation, and all the other demographics they wish to report on.

This is what Gallup says they do and have always done, explaining they have never weighted their polls for any demographics.

In an age where media is not trusted and Conservatives especially may feel their time will be wasted answering questions because the results will be skewed, many simply hang up. This would mean an unbalanced and unrepresentative sample is used to assemble the final results of the poll since more Dems than Rep chose to take part.

As everyone one rightly says, the only poll which matters is on election day and the party which turns out more voters wins.


35 posted on 11/05/2012 1:52:14 AM PST by Lacey2
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