Obama will win Philadelphia county. He is likely to win Lakawanna county. Delaware, Montomery and Allegheny counties are toss ups. What is very notable is Allegheny (Pittsburgh), it is literally a dead heat there. Romney will win at least 62 counties, and in many of those counties Romney will get between 65 to 75% of the vote.
There is no early voting, but absentee ballots are in. Romney is up 19% in absentee voting.
While all of this sounds encouraging, you have to realize that over 550k will be voting for Obama in Philadelphia. If turn out is low in Philadelphia, 560k and below, then Romney will win. Obama has to get the vote out in Philadelphia. The machine in Philly is a machine. 83% will vote for Obama.
It is very difficult for all the small red counties in Pa to make up for the Philadelphia vote. A big help would be winning Bucks, Montomery and Delaware counties. I think Bucks will go for Romney. We’ll see about the other two.
Bush got almost 19.5% of Philly in 04. I think Romney will crack 20% or maybe a little more of the Philly vote. Problem is Dems keep growing their registration pie in Philly. Will there be a lesser turnout of that bigger pie? Maybe 560,000 for Obama to 150,000 for Romney. That is nearly the deficit (412,000 versus 410,000) Bush had coming out of Philly in 04 and Bush lost by 2.5% Can Romney make up that 410K deficit with higher turnout and more independents voting for him?