Posted on 11/04/2012 7:35:15 PM PST by shoedog
I didn't think PA was really a possibility until last couple days. Polls are looking good. However some real clues lie in the size of the crowd Romney pulled in a district Obama won with 53% in 2008. Additionally Clinton going there for 4 stops tomorrow. That is important for two poins. Dems worried. And the bigger point (my editorial belief) they know Obama isn't popular but PA liked Clinton, so they are sending him to try to pull the indy's and Dem's they are losing! The momentum is there PA people just get out and vote
I just got back from the rally today in PA, they told us we broke 30,000 that Ohio had yesterday (I heard 34,000 but I can’t confirm).
Bush had a rally in 2004 at the same location, and it was tiny in comparison to this. It was a sea of people out there.
Romney’s performing the best in the suburbs of Philadelphia since 1988, I’m certain. If Pennsylvania is a swing state, then it’ll go for Romney this time.
If not, I don’t know how the GOP can ever pick up PA.
An enormous rally for Mitt Romney in Bucks County, PA had people incredulous and tweeting like fury:
http://iowntheworld.com/blog/?p=156074
Do you know what 4 towns Clinton is visiting????
didn’t here sites just say a couple tweets (by both Dem and Rep) tweeters that said he had four stops.
I’d be surprised if Intercourse, PA isn’t on his list.
I am very happy with where we sit in this election. I think everyone is misreading this thing, and that PA will be the one that wins it for us.
I breathed a sigh of relief when Dick Morris failed to back down on his prediction on Gretta. In fact, he added MN to the Romney column!
It’s not just Morris either. Now Barone and Will think we’re going to see a decisive victory.
When the only person predicting a decisive victory for the Oblammo campaign is... *snigger*... Paul Krugman, you know there is a problem.
I agree Happy with Will who doesn’t go out on limbs, Morris, glad but don’t take him as serious but the one that I totally believe in is Barone, he has forgotten more about districts/voter patterns etcc/ than any one else out there period. While he is a Republican, he is a realist. For him to make the call makes me feel very good! Again, lots of non scientific data with crowds, momentum, signs, conversations with past Obama voters, feels like 2008 in reverse.
If willin' Willie is tag teaming with Pee Wee Herman they need to come to Bird-in-hand.
Like Intercourse, found in Leacock Township.
That's pronounced "LAY-cock", for those of you in Rio Linda.
Pennsylvania’s Tribune-Democrat: “ROMNEY Can Right Listing Ship”
Just saw this on twitter..even a Democrat paper in PA is endorsing Romney
Obama will win Philadelphia county. He is likely to win Lakawanna county. Delaware, Montomery and Allegheny counties are toss ups. What is very notable is Allegheny (Pittsburgh), it is literally a dead heat there. Romney will win at least 62 counties, and in many of those counties Romney will get between 65 to 75% of the vote.
There is no early voting, but absentee ballots are in. Romney is up 19% in absentee voting.
While all of this sounds encouraging, you have to realize that over 550k will be voting for Obama in Philadelphia. If turn out is low in Philadelphia, 560k and below, then Romney will win. Obama has to get the vote out in Philadelphia. The machine in Philly is a machine. 83% will vote for Obama.
It is very difficult for all the small red counties in Pa to make up for the Philadelphia vote. A big help would be winning Bucks, Montomery and Delaware counties. I think Bucks will go for Romney. We’ll see about the other two.
I’m curious what you guys think about my take on this.
It would seem to me that Clinton would only serve to remind them of how badly 0 is doing.
Am I off base here, or are the dems in bad enough shape that they have no choice but to take that risk?
I just love to start trouble.
;D
Or Climax which is just down the road.
Just out of curiosity, Freepers, how effective could Clinton, or anyone be—the day before the election? It’s a Monday...kids in school, working people at work...I guess the unemployed could go watch Clinton. Surely, all the undecideds have made up their minds, right?
hahaha, I’m sure there’ll be plenty of that! He ain’t doing this for free!
Maybe Pennsylvanians love Clinton, however, he isn’t on the ballot this year and with this boondoggle of a thing in Benghazi hanging over his wife’s head, I’m just not so sure he is a winning strategy. Just my point of view, of course.
This is precisely why I have favored having Romney as the nominee since W. barely eked out an electoral majority in his reelection campaign in 2004. The 2012 Republican Romney/Ryan ticket is the mirror image of the 1992 Democrat Clinton/Gore ticket. The purpose of having two northerners on the Republican ticket this year is the same as having two southerners on the 1992 Democratic ticket. It's to double down on appeal to a region in which the party has been week in recent elections.
Look at the 2000, 2004, and 2008 electoral maps. Some Great Lakes/midwestern states were just out of reach. I figured Romney was the right candidate to pick off Colorado, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire. Guess where the swing states are this year.
This is precisely why I have favored having Romney as the nominee since W. barely eked out an electoral majority in his reelection campaign in 2004. The 2012 Republican Romney/Ryan ticket is the mirror image of the 1992 Democrat Clinton/Gore ticket. The purpose of having two northerners on the Republican ticket this year is the same as having two southerners on the 1992 Democratic ticket. It's to double down on appeal to a region in which the party has been week in recent elections.
Look at the 2000, 2004, and 2008 electoral maps. Some Great Lakes/midwestern states were just out of reach. I figured Romney was the right candidate to pick off Colorado, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire. Guess where the swing states are this year.
SE Pa, from Pittsburgh to Waynesburg, has strong support for Romney.
Pittsburgh, Blue Bell, Philly, Scranton
http://www.politicspa.com/updated-clinton-coming-to-pa-monday/43732/
You mean SW Pa.
And you’re right. :)
My dad’s family is all in Northeastern PA (Schuylkill County)—they ALWAYS vote Democrat. Generations of coal miners. They are voting for Romney.
Bush got almost 19.5% of Philly in 04. I think Romney will crack 20% or maybe a little more of the Philly vote. Problem is Dems keep growing their registration pie in Philly. Will there be a lesser turnout of that bigger pie? Maybe 560,000 for Obama to 150,000 for Romney. That is nearly the deficit (412,000 versus 410,000) Bush had coming out of Philly in 04 and Bush lost by 2.5% Can Romney make up that 410K deficit with higher turnout and more independents voting for him?
And we have a winner!!!
May there be many more like them.
LOL!
Barone seems to think that Romney can mine enough votes in Bucks and other suburbs of Philly to get over the Philly hump. Guy knows what he’s talking about and the rally may be an indication that Romney is going to perform well in those burbs.
Geez, I was born in SW Pa.!
Given the sluggishness of the FR server for many users, maybe you should consider not posting images for the next couple of days if at all possible.
Well, as Rocco said in the Godfather 2: “Difficult. Not impossible.” Bush was the incumbent, the GOP turned out about as many voters as they possibly could in 2004, and he still lost by 2 points. Toomey, in a GOP wave year (2010) managed to only win by 2 points.
Now that being said, some points in Romney’s favor. His moderate, touchy-feely nonsense will probably play better than either Bush or Toomey, so I would expect him to outperform them by a few points. Romney should do well in the Philly suburbs, which are voter-rich. Romney needs to beat Obama there to offset the massive lead Obama will pile up in Philadelphia. There are not enough votes in the rest of the state to offset the 400,000 - 450,000 vote hole Romney will be in if he can’t win Bucks, Montgomery, Delaware, and Chester counties.
A few more plus Romney points. I am gradually seeing a few more Romney signs. I think people are becoming more interested in voting for Romney, than against Obama. I myself will now happily vote for Romney, whereas at one point I said I would not vote for him. Also, Romney is blowing Obama right off the air. Since Romney made a play for PA, his ads outnumber Obama’s 3-1. That should help.
If the independents significantly break for Romney, he will probably take the state. I would give him about a 40% chance of carrying PA. One last thought. Ed Rendell knows more about PA politics than anyone. He also will let the mask slip occasionally and tell you what he really thinks. He said Romney will outperform Tom Smith by a few points, presumably because Romney is more moderate. Smith is supposed to be within a point or two of Bob Casey, so Romney may actually be tied or ahead. I still give him a 40% chance.
The only images hosted on-site are the ones Jim deems worth pasting onto the front page.
Not too surprising Penna is in play - just remembering Obama’s “you can start a new coal company, but we’ll bankrupt it” - took people a while to catch on, but those who grew up in the coal fields of the Keystone state, even if they aren’t working in the mines now, seem to be finally waking up.....
If Obama loses, the party absolutely belongs to Clinton again starting Nov. 7th.
“Heck, take it from me, your pal Bubba, I can vouch for this nice young Black guy. I know you have your doubts about him, but you don’t have any doubts about me, right? So I’m tellin’ ya, I swear, even I couldn’t have done a better job fixin’ this mess in only four years than this nice young Black guy.”
Could you EVER picture Clinton having to make this kind of case for an older, more experienced White Democrat who was running for re-election? The idea that Clinton’s speech at the Democrat Convention helped Obama is nonsense! It was SOOOOO affirmative action. And the joke is that Clinton himself knew that he was ultimately hurting Obama, even though so many people thought he was helping him.
LOL!
if Obama was going to PA he’d probably go to Hershey via the highway...
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I got a robocall from Clinton today and I’d consider it to be effective for the Dem base. No calls from Obama this political season. One call from a Democratic volunteer sounded like a retiree. Eight calls today from the Republicans.
I got a robocall from Clinton today and I’d consider it to be effective for the Dem base. No calls from Obama this political season. One call from a Democratic volunteer sounded like a retiree. Eight calls today from the Republicans.
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