Ignore the polls, watch the action and the rhetoric.
Obama and Romney are both playing on mostly BLUE state turf. Romney is running the sort of campaign winning camps run, optimistic, hopeful, bland. Obama is running the sort of campaign losers run, nasty, desperate and shrill.
Obama is running around joined at the hip with Bill Clinton trying desperately to fire up the traditional Democrat blue collar vote. Obama is doing nothing to reach towards the middle. Romney is out there acting Presidential and reaching out to moderate and “leans Democrat” voters.
Obama is not acting like a candidate whose internal polling is showing him winning.
I would note this is almost exactly opposite from 2008.
That year, McCain you could tell was pretty much giving up, going on Saturday Night Live that Saturday etc.
I like many others on here was taken in with nonsense like “have a chance in PA” without any real evidence. Meanwhile, Obama campaigned in Indiana for crying out loud.
But, this year.....there is evidence we could possibly win PA and other states....from multiple polls (and not just GOP firms, which should always be suspect).
Though cautious, I am excited.