Skip to comments.CNN National Poll: Dead heat between Obama and Romney (R 49%, 0 49% .. + 11% Dem!)
Posted on 11/04/2012 5:32:26 PM PST by Arthurio
Washington (CNN) It's all tied up, according to a new national poll released two days before the presidential election.
And the CNN/ORC International survey not only indicates a dead heat in the race for the White House, but also on almost every major indicator of President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney that was tested in the poll.
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Forty-nine percent of likely voters questioned say they support the president, with an equal amount saying they back the former Massachusetts governor.
(Excerpt) Read more at politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com ...
11+ Dem sample? Are you kidding me? They’re desperate if so.
hey are starting to include registered voters to keep O’s numbers up.
just saw this on twitter . . +11 is crazy but still need those swing states but IF it is that bad nationally, OH has to turn red along with many more to fall to Red too!
Fox was showing O in Cinci and he was being heckled. haha
I feel a whole lot better now
This is truly farcical - Communist News Network has a Democratic voting advantage that is simply impossible!
And even here, O cannot crack 50%.
Ignore the polls, watch the action and the rhetoric.
Obama and Romney are both playing on mostly BLUE state turf. Romney is running the sort of campaign winning camps run, optimistic, hopeful, bland. Obama is running the sort of campaign losers run, nasty, desperate and shrill.
Obama is running around joined at the hip with Bill Clinton trying desperately to fire up the traditional Democrat blue collar vote. Obama is doing nothing to reach towards the middle. Romney is out there acting Presidential and reaching out to moderate and leans Democrat voters.
Obama is not acting like a candidate whose internal polling is showing him winning.
This poll has set twitter afire.
Why don’t we make it D+20 and be done with it so that I can stop even caring about the election?
What happened to journalistic credibility?
How do they explain the +11% Dem, or don’t they?
Otherwise it's totally useless.
The Christie bump is gone. We’ll deal with him later.
Can someone post the exact D/R/I breakdown of this poll?
Even if the actual turnout is the same as 2008 (D+8), Romney will see a narrow victory according to this poll. No way that happens though and D+11 is just out of the park crazy.
These polls are like junkies who need bigger and bigger doses to get the same high.
What is their reasoning for sampling more dems than republicans? I’m sure there must be a method behind their madness they claim publically. I understand what their hidden agenda is for doing it but why do they claim they oversample dems (if they do admit it)?
Talk about a biased tilted poll
I don’t know enough about the details. Are there more Democrats, is that why they keep the + Dems so high?
Where does it give the partisan breakdown?
I think it is clear what is going on here.
CNN showed a move towards Romney but didn’t want to report it because it would destroy the current narrative of Obambi’s inevitability. So, they hid it by massively inflating their RAT numbers.
This is the single best bit of polling news we have had in a week.
set twitter afire in that everyone is talking about the dead heat or the joke of the rats +11??
I’ve never heard an explanation for the absurd over sampling of democrats in these polls. Can these firms possibly truly expect this?
These polls are like junkies who need bigger and bigger doses to get the same high.
so annoying! just watched this panel of political pundits on CBS... all but one calling it for Obama... saying it’s just too difficult for Romney to get enough electoral votes... said Ohio is Obama’s... and one idiot even said the Romney camp has money to burn so that’s why they are in Pennsylvania... just to make Obama spend money there... oh brother...
The "gods of the copy-book headings" WILL take care of these bastards in the future.
...they WILL start reporting news as news and start identifying when they are offering opinions AND when offering up a "poll", that poll is honest and fair.
...they don't seem to have figured out that WE have them figured out and that unless they start acting like a "news" organization, they are toast.
How do they go about guesstimating the proportions of party voter turn out? And how can it possibly be the same across all states?
Where is it stated D + 11 sample?
I’m struck that a few hours before the election all that’s being discussed is polls and not policy. I’m guilty too, but it’s not good for our republic.
+11 rofl. That would explain Obama’s campaign events going from 80k to 4k.
In the backroom: "Let's see, does plus 8 D make it? No? How about plus 10?..."
We look forward to a Romney Ryan Landslide. It will be plus 10 R!
They’re in the tank for Obama and they’ve come to believe their own biased polls and propaganda.
Did you really expect CBS to be impartial? That is why I never watch the MSM.
It is the D+11 that has Twitter abuzz. It sound so unbelievable.
It’s in the appendix at back. 41D / 30R / 29I.
We could just waste JimRob's bandwidth talking about unicorn sightings.
I skimmed all 57 pages and couldn’t find it...
What an insane poll...tied and D+ double digits. Wow if true.
That said, here is a link to an interesting article from 2004 arguing why the polls were wrong and Kerry would win from some Dem.
It uses many of the same arguments we use today, so let’s not ASSUME we are winning and polls are wrong, even if oversampled. It could be that Dem turnout will be higher than we think.
I think in this case, oversampling etc. WILL mean we are going to win. But, don’t get too overconfident. Even good-sounding statistics can be wrong.
Based on this poll though, I would not be surprised if we do pull off a big upset.
Right now I predict a R win of 2 points, but I hope it’s five or even more.
They work backwards to figure out the sample they need to keep Obama in the lead.
Its CBS..what do you want them to say “Its over, Obama is toast!” of course they are going to pump Obama up but behind the scenes they know Obama is finished
ah, channeling the great one
Found the internals: “Among those likely voters, 41% described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans.”
Media is trying to control the narrative and this year polling has really been nuts with these unrealistic Dem samples.
Dems/media are trying to conceal Romney’s momentum. The Romney rallies contrasted with Obama rallies make it clear who has captured the nation’s attention. But that is something the media desperately tries to hide from the public.
I, personally ( just a numbers junkie) don't see 300EV but i do see a Romney/Ryan win.
good to hear...
They added France as the 51st state.
I would note this is almost exactly opposite from 2008.
That year, McCain you could tell was pretty much giving up, going on Saturday Night Live that Saturday etc.
I like many others on here was taken in with nonsense like “have a chance in PA” without any real evidence. Meanwhile, Obama campaigned in Indiana for crying out loud.
But, this year.....there is evidence we could possibly win PA and other states....from multiple polls (and not just GOP firms, which should always be suspect).
Though cautious, I am excited.
Page 29 of the survey report. D/R/I of 41%/30%/29%. If the election results were anything close to that then we have bigger problems than this election.
that does sound rather cynical though.
bronco bama is about to get rode out of town by cowboy mitt, in my humble opinion. however the rats WILL pull out all the stops before they concede.
I agree with you there.
But also, I think it was Rush or somebody else that mentioned something about the oversampling and its based somehow on voter turnout in the last election (2008) and that’s why they do it. It does not make sense especially in 2012 because there’s no way enthusiasm among the democrats it +anything let alone +11%.
Bottom line is, as you said, the Media is trying to control the narrative and this year polling has really been nuts with these unrealistic Dem samples.
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