Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

CNN National Poll: Dead heat between Obama and Romney (R 49%, 0 49% .. + 11% Dem!)
CNN ^

Posted on 11/04/2012 5:32:26 PM PST by Arthurio

Washington (CNN) – It's all tied up, according to a new national poll released two days before the presidential election.

And the CNN/ORC International survey not only indicates a dead heat in the race for the White House, but also on almost every major indicator of President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney that was tested in the poll.

– Follow the Ticker on Twitter: @PoliticalTicker

– Check out the CNN Electoral Map and Calculator and game out your own strategy for November.

Forty-nine percent of likely voters questioned say they support the president, with an equal amount saying they back the former Massachusetts governor.

(Excerpt) Read more at politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: poll; polling; polls
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-100101-108 next last
The CNN poll was conducted November 2-4 by ORC International, with 1,010 adult Americans, including 918 registered voters and 693 likely voters, questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error for likely and registered voters is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
1 posted on 11/04/2012 5:32:26 PM PST by Arthurio
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Arthurio

11+ Dem sample? Are you kidding me? They’re desperate if so.


2 posted on 11/04/2012 5:36:03 PM PST by conservativepoet
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Arthurio

hey are starting to include registered voters to keep O’s numbers up.


3 posted on 11/04/2012 5:37:03 PM PST by ez (When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Arthurio

+11 D....nonsense


4 posted on 11/04/2012 5:38:02 PM PST by The Wizard (Madam President is my President now and in the future)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Arthurio

just saw this on twitter . . +11 is crazy but still need those swing states but IF it is that bad nationally, OH has to turn red along with many more to fall to Red too!

Fox was showing O in Cinci and he was being heckled. haha


5 posted on 11/04/2012 5:38:11 PM PST by Qwackertoo (Romney/Ryan 2012 The Future of Our Children and Their Children are at stake.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Qwackertoo

I feel a whole lot better now


6 posted on 11/04/2012 5:39:54 PM PST by scooby321 (AMS)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Arthurio

This is truly farcical - Communist News Network has a Democratic voting advantage that is simply impossible!

And even here, O cannot crack 50%.

Its over!


7 posted on 11/04/2012 5:40:10 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Arthurio

Ignore the polls, watch the action and the rhetoric.

Obama and Romney are both playing on mostly BLUE state turf. Romney is running the sort of campaign winning camps run, optimistic, hopeful, bland. Obama is running the sort of campaign losers run, nasty, desperate and shrill.

Obama is running around joined at the hip with Bill Clinton trying desperately to fire up the traditional Democrat blue collar vote. Obama is doing nothing to reach towards the middle. Romney is out there acting Presidential and reaching out to moderate and “leans Democrat” voters.

Obama is not acting like a candidate whose internal polling is showing him winning.


8 posted on 11/04/2012 5:40:26 PM PST by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: LS; Ravi; InterceptPoint; tatown; Perdogg; nhwingut; ConservativeGuy; ConservativeDude; ...

This poll has set twitter afire.

Seriously D+11?

Why don’t we make it D+20 and be done with it so that I can stop even caring about the election?

What happened to journalistic credibility?


9 posted on 11/04/2012 5:41:00 PM PST by SoftwareEngineer
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Arthurio

How do they explain the +11% Dem, or don’t they?


10 posted on 11/04/2012 5:41:29 PM PST by John W (Viva Cristo Rey!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Arthurio
They need to take a much larger sample to get the margin of error to below that of the difference between the candidates.

Otherwise it's totally useless.

11 posted on 11/04/2012 5:42:01 PM PST by Paladin2
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Arthurio

The Christie bump is gone. We’ll deal with him later.


12 posted on 11/04/2012 5:44:03 PM PST by AU72
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Arthurio

Can someone post the exact D/R/I breakdown of this poll?


13 posted on 11/04/2012 5:44:30 PM PST by BlueStateRightist
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Arthurio
Gallup says the actual turnout should be more like R+3 - that's a 14 point swing from this poll which easily puts Romney in landslide territory (if R+3 is correct).

Even if the actual turnout is the same as 2008 (D+8), Romney will see a narrow victory according to this poll. No way that happens though and D+11 is just out of the park crazy.

14 posted on 11/04/2012 5:44:47 PM PST by SamAdams76
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop

These polls are like junkies who need bigger and bigger doses to get the same high.


15 posted on 11/04/2012 5:45:47 PM PST by LS
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: conservativepoet

What is their reasoning for sampling more dems than republicans? I’m sure there must be a method behind their madness they claim publically. I understand what their hidden agenda is for doing it but why do they claim they oversample dems (if they do admit it)?


16 posted on 11/04/2012 5:45:49 PM PST by tsowellfan (KEEP WORKING like we are 10 POINTS DOWN!!!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Arthurio

Talk about a biased tilted poll


17 posted on 11/04/2012 5:47:08 PM PST by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: conservativepoet

I don’t know enough about the details. Are there more Democrats, is that why they keep the + Dems so high?


18 posted on 11/04/2012 5:47:15 PM PST by Kenny (<p)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Arthurio

Where does it give the partisan breakdown?


19 posted on 11/04/2012 5:48:30 PM PST by PghBaldy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Arthurio

I think it is clear what is going on here.

CNN showed a move towards Romney but didn’t want to report it because it would destroy the current narrative of Obambi’s inevitability. So, they hid it by massively inflating their RAT numbers.

This is the single best bit of polling news we have had in a week.


20 posted on 11/04/2012 5:49:05 PM PST by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

set twitter afire in that everyone is talking about the dead heat or the joke of the rats +11??


21 posted on 11/04/2012 5:49:15 PM PST by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: conservativepoet

I’ve never heard an explanation for the absurd over sampling of democrats in these polls. Can these firms possibly truly expect this?


22 posted on 11/04/2012 5:49:17 PM PST by PatrickHaggerty
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop

These polls are like junkies who need bigger and bigger doses to get the same high.


23 posted on 11/04/2012 5:49:40 PM PST by LS
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Qwackertoo

so annoying! just watched this panel of political pundits on CBS... all but one calling it for Obama... saying it’s just too difficult for Romney to get enough electoral votes... said Ohio is Obama’s... and one idiot even said the Romney camp has money to burn so that’s why they are in Pennsylvania... just to make Obama spend money there... oh brother...


24 posted on 11/04/2012 5:50:12 PM PST by latina4dubya ( self-proclaimed tequila snob)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Arthurio
Whats going on here IMO, is that the Zer0-istas are attempting to spread as much confusion and doubt as possible at the last hour.

The "gods of the copy-book headings" WILL take care of these bastards in the future.

...they WILL start reporting news as news and start identifying when they are offering opinions AND when offering up a "poll", that poll is honest and fair.

...they don't seem to have figured out that WE have them figured out and that unless they start acting like a "news" organization, they are toast.

25 posted on 11/04/2012 5:50:49 PM PST by B.O. Plenty (Give war a chance.....)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Arthurio
It is official now, Obama is:

Obama is Toast

I wouldn't be surprised if NM, IL, WA, OR, and HI are now in play.

26 posted on 11/04/2012 5:51:24 PM PST by ConservativeInPA (I advocate indentured servitude for the 47% until the national debt is eliminated.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: comebacknewt

Bingo.


27 posted on 11/04/2012 5:52:08 PM PST by LS
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: conservativepoet

How do they go about guesstimating the proportions of party voter turn out? And how can it possibly be the same across all states?


28 posted on 11/04/2012 5:52:38 PM PST by HiTech RedNeck (cat dog, cat dog, alone in the world is a little cat dog)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: conservativepoet

Where is it stated D + 11 sample?


29 posted on 11/04/2012 5:54:11 PM PST by C. Edmund Wright ("GONE: The Four Year Wave That Rocked The Bubble" due out Nov 8th)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Arthurio

I’m struck that a few hours before the election all that’s being discussed is polls and not policy. I’m guilty too, but it’s not good for our republic.


30 posted on 11/04/2012 5:54:26 PM PST by Oldeconomybuyer (The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop

+11 rofl. That would explain Obama’s campaign events going from 80k to 4k.


31 posted on 11/04/2012 5:56:22 PM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Arthurio
They probably used 11 percent D just to make it look tied.

In the backroom: "Let's see, does plus 8 D make it? No? How about plus 10?..."

We look forward to a Romney Ryan Landslide. It will be plus 10 R!


32 posted on 11/04/2012 5:57:35 PM PST by garjog (We do not want another four more years of the last four years.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: latina4dubya

They’re in the tank for Obama and they’ve come to believe their own biased polls and propaganda.

Did you really expect CBS to be impartial? That is why I never watch the MSM.


33 posted on 11/04/2012 5:57:58 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: God luvs America

GLA,

It is the D+11 that has Twitter abuzz. It sound so unbelievable.


34 posted on 11/04/2012 5:59:15 PM PST by SoftwareEngineer
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: C. Edmund Wright

It’s in the appendix at back. 41D / 30R / 29I.


35 posted on 11/04/2012 6:00:00 PM PST by NittanyLion
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer
What happened to journalistic credibility?

We could just waste JimRob's bandwidth talking about unicorn sightings.

36 posted on 11/04/2012 6:00:11 PM PST by AndyJackson
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: PghBaldy

I skimmed all 57 pages and couldn’t find it...


37 posted on 11/04/2012 6:01:06 PM PST by Wyatt's Torch (I can explain it to you. I can't understand it for you.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: Arthurio; All

What an insane poll...tied and D+ double digits. Wow if true.

That said, here is a link to an interesting article from 2004 arguing why the polls were wrong and Kerry would win from some Dem.

It uses many of the same arguments we use today, so let’s not ASSUME we are winning and polls are wrong, even if oversampled. It could be that Dem turnout will be higher than we think.

I think in this case, oversampling etc. WILL mean we are going to win. But, don’t get too overconfident. Even good-sounding statistics can be wrong.

http://www.politicalstrategy.org/archives/000580.php

Based on this poll though, I would not be surprised if we do pull off a big upset.

Right now I predict a R win of 2 points, but I hope it’s five or even more.


38 posted on 11/04/2012 6:01:27 PM PST by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: HiTech RedNeck

They work backwards to figure out the sample they need to keep Obama in the lead.


39 posted on 11/04/2012 6:01:51 PM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: latina4dubya

Its CBS..what do you want them to say “Its over, Obama is toast!” of course they are going to pump Obama up but behind the scenes they know Obama is finished


40 posted on 11/04/2012 6:02:06 PM PST by Sarah Barracuda
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: AU72

ah, channeling the great one


41 posted on 11/04/2012 6:02:35 PM PST by dontreadthis
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: Arthurio

Found the internals: “Among those likely voters, 41% described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans.”


42 posted on 11/04/2012 6:02:48 PM PST by BlueStateRightist
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: tsowellfan

Media is trying to control the narrative and this year polling has really been nuts with these unrealistic Dem samples.

Dems/media are trying to conceal Romney’s momentum. The Romney rallies contrasted with Obama rallies make it clear who has captured the nation’s attention. But that is something the media desperately tries to hide from the public.


43 posted on 11/04/2012 6:03:14 PM PST by conservativepoet
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: Kenny
Historically speaking, there is a +4 D registered advantage. that being said, it is registered and not Likely voters. Also, the best guestimates say that there should be a +1 - +3 R this cycle. Which is still means little, other than those margins in swing states and there will be a rout this time, like Romney/Ryan 300+ EV rout.

I, personally ( just a numbers junkie) don't see 300EV but i do see a Romney/Ryan win.

44 posted on 11/04/2012 6:03:34 PM PST by IllumiNaughtyByNature ($1.84 - The price of a gallon of gas on Jan. 20th, 2009.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

good to hear...


45 posted on 11/04/2012 6:04:17 PM PST by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 34 | View Replies]

To: Arthurio

They added France as the 51st state.


46 posted on 11/04/2012 6:04:27 PM PST by grumpygresh (Democrats delenda est; zero sera dans l'enfer bientot)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: MNJohnnie

I would note this is almost exactly opposite from 2008.

That year, McCain you could tell was pretty much giving up, going on Saturday Night Live that Saturday etc.

I like many others on here was taken in with nonsense like “have a chance in PA” without any real evidence. Meanwhile, Obama campaigned in Indiana for crying out loud.

But, this year.....there is evidence we could possibly win PA and other states....from multiple polls (and not just GOP firms, which should always be suspect).

Though cautious, I am excited.


47 posted on 11/04/2012 6:06:37 PM PST by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Qwackertoo

Page 29 of the survey report. D/R/I of 41%/30%/29%. If the election results were anything close to that then we have bigger problems than this election.


48 posted on 11/04/2012 6:06:43 PM PST by USNBandit (sarcasm engaged at all times)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: trappedincanuckistan

that does sound rather cynical though.

bronco bama is about to get rode out of town by cowboy mitt, in my humble opinion. however the rats WILL pull out all the stops before they concede.


49 posted on 11/04/2012 6:08:04 PM PST by HiTech RedNeck (cat dog, cat dog, alone in the world is a little cat dog)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 39 | View Replies]

To: conservativepoet

I agree with you there.

But also, I think it was Rush or somebody else that mentioned something about the oversampling and its based somehow on voter turnout in the last election (2008) and that’s why they do it. It does not make sense especially in 2012 because there’s no way enthusiasm among the democrats it +anything let alone +11%.

Bottom line is, as you said, the Media is trying to control the narrative and this year polling has really been nuts with these unrealistic Dem samples.


50 posted on 11/04/2012 6:08:39 PM PST by tsowellfan (KEEP WORKING like we are 10 POINTS DOWN!!!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 43 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-100101-108 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson