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It all comes down to this. Pollsters are basing their numbers on turnout in 2008 where Democrats had a roughly 7% advantage. Do you see that kind of enthusiasm for Obama this time?

I look at early voting numbers. Democrat turnout down across the board.

I look at the polls’ internals and I see Republicans have an edge in enthusiasm and are much more likely to vote (Gallup is saying it will be a +3 Republican electorate). I also see Romney enjoying huge support among independents (Obama got a bump from Sandy, but today I see independents slowly swinging back to Romney).

I look at the crowds at campaign events. Tens of thousands of people standing out in the cold in swing or blue states to hear Romney.

I look at messaging. Obama has been attacking the Tea Party for two days in an effort to get his base out. If he’s still trying to get his base fired up this late he’s in trouble.

I look at where the battle is being fought. In swing states Obama carried last time or in blue states like Pennsylvania Obama should have locked up already.

Obama is mired in the mid to high forties. Big trouble for an incumbent.

The polls are either intentionally or unintentionally oversampling Democrats. That kind of turnout does not appear to be happening nor is it very likely to happen.

Have faith.