Obama and that 47 to 50 Percent Danger Zone

National Review ^ | 11/4/12 | Jim Geraghty

[randita]

Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos made a comment in early October that seemed surprising, but in fact reflects common sense: an incumbent president who’s consistently polling around 47 percent is in deep trouble, and unlikely to finish with the higher vote total.

The good news for President Obama is that he’s cracked that 47 percent ceiling in a few polls in some key states. The bad news is that he’s not much above that level, and he rarely hits 50 percent.

An incumbent above 50 percent is safe, and an incumbent at 50 is probably safe. Hitting 48 or 49 is probably the danger zone, and as mentioned above, 47 is the doom number.

Today, Sunday, twelve polls pitting Obama against Romney have been released at the state and national level. Here are Obama’s percentages in those polls:

Nationally: 48 percent (Politico/GWU/Battleground), 48 percent (NBC News/Wall Street Journal), 49 percent (Rasmussen).

Pennsylvania: 47 percent (Tribune Review/Susquehanna) 49 percent (Morning Call).

Ohio: 50 percent (Columbus Dispatch).

Michigan: 46 percent (Baydoun/Foster).

Maine (not really in play): 49 percent (Critical Insights).

Indiana (not really in play): 43 percent (Rasmussen).

Montana (not really in play): 43 percent (Mason-Dixon), 43 percent (Rasmussen).

Massachusetts (not really in play): 58 percent (Western NE University).

Now, if Obama’s at 48 percent, it doesn’t necessarily mean Romney will get 52 percent. Some folks will vote third-party, and some of the “likely voters” in these polls may decide to stay home. If Obama were consistently polling at 47 percent in the national polls, all of the Pennsylvania polls, the Ohio polls, I’d feel more confident of a Romney victory. But the bottom line is that Obama is shaky, right on the knife’s edge between victory and defeat in a slew of place he needs: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan — and nationally.

[tsowellfan]

Ever since that video came out about the 47% I really have not heard Romney talking about a 47%. In fact, all of Romney's speeches have been about helping 100% of Americans.

Obama, however, seems to think it's politically savy to tour the nation admitting that his agenda is revenge against 53% of this country.

[sodpoodle]

***Some folks will vote third-party,...***

Any polls listing Gary Johnson or ‘other’ percentages?

Ross Perot voters were polled!!!!!

[MNJohnnie]

Odd how all these experts forget the obvious.

In any election season the last week of the election the undecided and the indies take one last look at the candidate they are leaning against. So in the last week you see a tightening of the polls as they look back over their shoulder one last time. I suspect the polls tomorrow and Tuesday will show movement to Romney as his support with the Independent and undecided voters firms up.

[diogenes ghost]

The Colin Powell endorsement ad has been running a LOT here in Nawth Flawaduh. But I only bothered to pay attention to it once....and guess what?

As the ad shows an auto production line, he says "....and he saved the oil industry."

Saved the OIL industry?? WTF??

[comebacknewt]

As long as the happens, Johnnie, we win.

If the RATs are correct and those voters either stay at home, or split more evenly this time, then it will be excruciatingly close.

Praying that Mitt gets just one more surge before Tuesday.

[tsowellfan]

Saved the OIL industry?

Mexico's and Brazil's.

[Popman]

Funny, I just saw that political ad like 30 seconds ago....

“saved the oil industry” wtf ?

I had the same reaction.....

[carlo3b]

randita, I have absolutely nothing other than my own gut feelings, but I have a vivid memory of the 1980 Carter, Reagan contest..

There are so many indications that this is shaping up to be a mirror image.. The latest ping came from Axelrod, of all people.. He was being interviewed by a friendly CBS anchor, that asked him a harder than normal question, about Libya..

He knew, or had to know this question, and I’m sure he knew there would not be any push-back, or follow up questions, but he stammered, and stumbled.. That sounds like a stretch, but it’s indicative of nerves, that he never exhibits normally..

Check out all of the editorials and newspapers that have flipped for Romney this year.. The late night comics are starting to thump Oboso.. Naw, I think this isn’t going to be close.. We win, and win BIG!!!

[Cyber Liberty]

But the bottom line is that Obama is shaky, right on the knife’s edge between victory and defeat in a slew of place he needs: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan — and nationally.

This author toils for so long, then come up with this gem. Nationally? Why? Is there some number of "national" electors in the Electoral College with which I was previously unfamiliar?

[randita]

I truly hope and pray that you are right, because if Obama wins this despite his abject failures, this nation will have veered so far away from the shining light on the hill envisioned by our Founding Fathers that I no longer recognize it.

Romney and Ryan drew a line in the sand and I don’t think they could have been any clearer in laying out the two choices we are facing. They have run a very disciplined and honorable campaign - one they should be extremely proud of.

If people reject personal freedom and a free market economy that celebrates success, then we are on the path to European style socialism and the “new normal” will be future generations facing a declining standard of living.

The fact that Obama even has a spitting chance at winning a second term is a truly frightening prospect and a sure sign that we are on the precipice. Let’s pray that there are enough patriots out there to pull us back from the brink.