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A Final Romney Surge?
National Review ^ | 11/4/12 |  Victor Davis Hanson

Posted on 11/04/2012 1:29:09 PM PST by randita

The storm for a week diverted attention away from the growing Mitt Romney wave, and for a time highlighted the president, replete in bomber jacket, as presidential in directing relief efforts, as news understandably went silent on the huge Romney crowds and another dismal jobs report, and turned instead to administration officials appearing engaged and busy — all critical for both turnout and a key 3—5 percent of the voters who probably have not yet made up their minds. It is hard to calibrate the effect, but Romney seemed last week to be slipping 1–3 percent in many of the polls.

But after a week, the volatile ebb and flow is changing one final time — as millions were left without power and help, the Libyan catastrophe won’t go away as voters are beginning to grasp that it was the worst terrorist attack since 9/11 (and largely avoidable), and the president foolishly reverted to his customarily divisive form in revving up his base to go to the polls in the spirit of “revenge.”

The result is that Romney’s October momentum seems like it is resuming, as he appears far more presidential than the incumbent, who is running as a challenger on the premise that he has not been president the last four years. Obama’s tenor is reminiscent of a desperate Jerry Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H. W. Bush who in the last 72 hours of their campaigns could feel their presidencies slipping away, without the ability to do much about it. In contrast, Romney’s crowds and buzz are far more reminiscent of a down-the-stretch upbeat 1980 Reagan, 1992 Clinton — and 2008 Obama — whom you could feel in the last few hours of the campaigns were happy warriors surging as never before.

In truth, throughout this entire hare-and-tortoise campaign, Romney has been steady, disciplined, and focused, and has dealt well with surprises — from the 47 percent video release to Hurricane Sandy — something not true of the herky-jerky president, at least if we look at the nature of the pro-Obama ads, the stump-speech rhetoric, and the crudity of all sorts of surrogates and supporters. Apparently, Obama decided that he could win only by going negative and talking about hypotheticals rather than the last four years — and so may thereby have ensured that he will lose. For most voters, it is just too much for a bright and shining Messiah to end up as an all-too-real Nixon.


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: riggedpolls; romney2012; vdh
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To: TomGuy
Obama has been negative, mean, nasty, vicious, thuggish, condescending, angry since the 2nd debate. It shows and many do not like it.

You are so right. Yet a newspaper like the Wisconsin State Journal, even as they announce they are flipping to endorse Romney, can say things about Obama like "Obama is the more likeable candidate and inspiring speaker. ". I don't get that at all. I find him personally repulsive and disgusting to listen to, especially compared to Mitt Romney. This is just plain weird, even Romney can say things like Obama is a "likeable" guy. Obama and his wife are not likeable at all, in my opinion. They have rotten, negative attitudes to me and are not likeable at all.

21 posted on 11/04/2012 2:17:32 PM PST by Reddon
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To: goldstategop

True Pew does over sample dems, and Ras is even sampling dems +4 this week. The only thing that gets me a little wobbly is off year elections like 2010 are not the same as general elections. The party out of power always puts up better numbers especially considering 2010 there was still time to stop Obamacare and the unemployment number was even worse than now. That motivated republicans to come out +1.
Not sure it’s gonna happen on Tuesday but I don’t think it’ll be 2008 for Obama either

I’m at peace with whatever happens because, all we can do is vote, donate, volunteer for our side. Once that’s all over and people vote it’s not up to us anymore.


22 posted on 11/04/2012 2:41:50 PM PST by snarkytart
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To: snarkytart
It not only the +6 Dem sample, they also over sample Reps to reduce the Indy impact in the poll.

They do that because the Indy vote is massively in Romney's favor. Run a rational 37D-34R-29Indy sample and you would get a seriously different result more favorable to Romney

23 posted on 11/04/2012 2:46:20 PM PST by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: snarkytart

yeah, not happy about Pew either. They are not as easily dismissed as other polls. BUT, most of this seems to be a last minute Sandy bump. And they stopped polling yesterday. Bumps come, bumps go. Let’s see what happens on Election Day.


24 posted on 11/04/2012 2:49:02 PM PST by Arthurio
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To: randita

25 posted on 11/04/2012 3:03:24 PM PST by garjog (We do not want another four more years of the last four years.)
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To: WashingtonSource
the funniest part of this all is watching the DUmmies stroke each other with +6D and +8D polls that show obama leading by 1-2 points... hahaha.

No doubt this is getting more exciting by the day. I really want to wake up Wed morning reading about a Romney landslide and a senate republican majority... I'll call in sick just so I can troll for libs all day! Maybe gun sales will drop off and I can finally get my KSG, damnit!

...anyway, I'm backing up 2 steps now before I get all ahead of myself.

26 posted on 11/04/2012 3:10:17 PM PST by FunkyZero (... I've got a Grand Piano to prop up my mortal remains)
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To: mplsconservative

Bingo..

People who react to polls that are so easily disproved, with ridiculous D+6 and up samples, really tick me off..Why bother coming on FR? If I wanted to hear a false narrative I would watch MSNBC... Or even Fox News.(FNC is getting pretty bad with their “too close to call” BS)... Had to turn their asses off finally.

FR is for people seeking truth, not the leftist driven, almost DEMONIC propaganda of the enemy. Dont come on here with namby-pamby hand wringing.


27 posted on 11/04/2012 3:16:44 PM PST by HailReagan78
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To: HailReagan78

Okay. You’re invited to my election party! :) No more polls, except the one on November 6th, the one that counts.

We’ll have a beer cheese fondue with crunchy baguette, scallops wrapped in bacon, Szechuan green beans and a Caesar salad, just to pretend we’re healthy. Not to mention, lots of adult beverages.

Either way, I believe in Divine Providence. The pollsters are the same as the MSM in my book.


28 posted on 11/04/2012 3:48:12 PM PST by mplsconservative (Barack Hussein 0bama has American blood on HIS hands!)
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To: dancusa

Nice!


29 posted on 11/04/2012 3:59:18 PM PST by FrdmLvr (culture, language, borders)
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To: mplsconservative

Szechuan green beans?
I’m I invited, too?


30 posted on 11/04/2012 4:14:00 PM PST by RCFlyer
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To: RCFlyer

Ah, another fan of the beans! No more fresh ones off the vine, but store bought. Still yummy though so c’mon down!


31 posted on 11/04/2012 4:28:11 PM PST by mplsconservative (Barack Hussein 0bama has American blood on HIS hands!)
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To: mplsconservative

Sounds good to me!


32 posted on 11/05/2012 2:28:09 AM PST by HailReagan78
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To: mplsconservative

You had me at Bacon :)


33 posted on 11/05/2012 2:46:55 AM PST by Tony in Hawaii (Catch a wave and youre sittin' on top of the world...)
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