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Parsing the Polls (Gallup is Projecting R+3 turnout)
NRO ^

Posted on 11/04/2012 11:50:34 AM PST by Perdogg

Last week, the Gallup Organization provided more fodder for the debate over whether this year’s polls are skewed due to a systematic over-representation of Democrats in the samples. If Gallup has it right, Governor Romney’s lead may be several percentage points greater than the most recent round of polls suggests.

Gallup reviewed all of its interviews with “likely voters” conducted since October 1. Its conclusion: “The composition of the electorate for the 2012 presidential election is looking quite similar to what it was in 2008 as well as 2004.” Indeed, whether the sample is broken out on the basis of race, gender, level of education, or geographic location, the percentage of likely voters in each subset is no different than it was four years earlier.

(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...


TOPICS: Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: election2012

1 posted on 11/04/2012 11:50:37 AM PST by Perdogg
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To: Perdogg

Nate Silver gives it to Romney if the turnout is R+1.


2 posted on 11/04/2012 11:52:26 AM PST by AU72
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To: SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; Ravi; ...

ping


3 posted on 11/04/2012 11:52:34 AM PST by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: Perdogg

Can’t wait!!!


4 posted on 11/04/2012 11:52:56 AM PST by Michigander222
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To: Perdogg
This is what R+3 looks like:


5 posted on 11/04/2012 11:53:10 AM PST by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the psychopath.)
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To: Perdogg

my mother-in-law, am 86 year old life-long democrat, is considering not voting for obama this time around.


6 posted on 11/04/2012 11:54:45 AM PST by stickywillie (stanley ann went black, & never came back)
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To: stickywillie

Great news!! I am hearing that from many Dems on twitter..those who voted for Obama in 2008 but either will be voting for Romney on Tuesday or just staying home. Even many Dems are sick and tired of Obama..the only support Obama will get is from the far left kooks and of course the media


7 posted on 11/04/2012 11:57:42 AM PST by Sarah Barracuda
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To: stickywillie

“my mother-in-law, am 86 year old life-long democrat, is considering not voting for obama this time around.”

Tough nuts cracking all over the place :)


8 posted on 11/04/2012 11:57:46 AM PST by Michigander222
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Excellent. We need a pic of the LGBT “counter protest” for comparison :-)


9 posted on 11/04/2012 11:59:08 AM PST by Heart of Georgia ("Together we will unite America and get this done" - Paul Ryan - August 11, 2012)
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To: Heart of Georgia
This is what D-3 looks like:


10 posted on 11/04/2012 12:02:56 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the psychopath.)
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To: Sarah Barracuda

“far left kooks and of course the media”

One in the same.....


11 posted on 11/04/2012 12:03:16 PM PST by Puckster ( "Neanderthals Rule")
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To: Perdogg

Great analysis m. Aligns perfectly with my thinking!


12 posted on 11/04/2012 12:03:19 PM PST by pgkdan (A vote for anyone but Romney is a vote for obama. GO MITT!!)
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To: Heart of Georgia

No, we don’t!


13 posted on 11/04/2012 12:04:33 PM PST by RPTMS
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To: Perdogg

R+3 = Obama destruction.


14 posted on 11/04/2012 12:05:02 PM PST by Red Steel
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To: Perdogg

R+3 = Obama destruction.


15 posted on 11/04/2012 12:05:16 PM PST by Red Steel
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To: Red Steel

If it’s R+3 it will be an early night.


16 posted on 11/04/2012 12:07:53 PM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: Perdogg

“Gallup reviewed all of its interviews with “likely voters” conducted since October 1.”

As the Gallup turns.....the new soap opera.

As stated my my self and others, Romney has always led.

It is Gallup’s time to protect its integrity (laugh track) as the election draws nigh.

How clever “reviewed” is as a segue to retention of integrity.


17 posted on 11/04/2012 12:08:50 PM PST by Puckster ( "Neanderthals Rule")
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To: Perdogg

The confidence in an Obama victory over at DU is unshakable.

I’m no Romney fan, but the pleasure of helping to make heads explode over there won him my vote.

Here’s to a conservative House and Senate to keep Mitt on the straight and narrow!


18 posted on 11/04/2012 12:08:51 PM PST by M1911A1
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

I won’t even attempt a guess at what gender that is.


19 posted on 11/04/2012 12:10:06 PM PST by Heart of Georgia ("Together we will unite America and get this done" - Paul Ryan - August 11, 2012)
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To: AU72
#WhyImNotVotingForObama is the number 2 trending topic on twitter right now
20 posted on 11/04/2012 12:12:52 PM PST by CaptainK (...please make it stop. Shake a can of pennies at it.)
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To: CaptainK

“#WhyImNotVotingForObama is the number 2 trending topic on twitter right now”

Well crap! Things like this will spoil all our fun over at DU on election night :(


21 posted on 11/04/2012 12:18:38 PM PST by Michigander222
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To: E. Pluribus Unum
No, THIS is what R+# looks like ;-)


22 posted on 11/04/2012 12:26:27 PM PST by bigbob
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To: Perdogg; Sarah Barracuda; maggief; Ernest_at_the_Beach; Nachum; STARWISE; RedMDer; DJ MacWoW; ...
Read the last two paragraphs at the link!!!!

Correcting these polls so that there was a Republican edge in the sample of voters consistent with Gallup’s finding would hand Romney a lead between five to ten points.

Imagine the run on smelling salts at Mother Jones and MSNBC if that were to happen?

VOTE AND KEEP PRAYING!
23 posted on 11/04/2012 12:28:53 PM PST by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
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To: onyx

Yes!


24 posted on 11/04/2012 12:42:18 PM PST by RedMDer (https://support.woundedwarriorproject.org/default.aspx?tsid=om93destr)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

I’m going to bring bagels and cream cheese to the office the day after the election.

I would really like to cater lunch from the Hollywood Chik-Fil-A but have decided not to be that perverse.


25 posted on 11/04/2012 12:52:32 PM PST by BunnySlippers (I LOVE BULL MARKETS . . .)
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To: CaptainK

I guess if you aren’t voting for P-diddy Obama you are a racist according to some of the posts.


26 posted on 11/04/2012 12:55:42 PM PST by linn37 (Newt supporter here.)
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To: Perdogg

The Liberal Messiah is tied in national polls that are D+3. If more Republicans outvote Democrats nationally, Romney should be in good shape.


27 posted on 11/04/2012 12:57:19 PM PST by Repeal 16-17 (Let me know when the Shooting starts.)
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To: AU72

From all the poll analyst here some say even if it’s +2 or +3 Dem Romney can/will win. As long as it’s +3 or under for the Dems.


28 posted on 11/04/2012 12:59:06 PM PST by snarkytart
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

lol


29 posted on 11/04/2012 1:06:22 PM PST by KC_Conspirator
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To: RPTMS

Too late — I asked for the ICK pic and got it! Sorry, I didn’t think that out too well...


30 posted on 11/04/2012 1:18:16 PM PST by Heart of Georgia ("Together we will unite America and get this done" - Paul Ryan - August 11, 2012)
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To: Perdogg

31 posted on 11/04/2012 1:22:58 PM PST by Sylvester McMonkey McBean
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To: Perdogg

To expand on my earlier post, if Gallup is predicting a R +3% turnout model.

If this is true (R +3%). Then Romney will win by 9%

Looking at the raw data over at:Rebalanced Presidential Election Polls 2012

The samples of all the national polls include 30,000 voters. This is a huge sample size so the margin of error should be very small.

Looking across the %’s across the 30,000 raw numbers polled we see the following:

Obama leading among dems, 91.15%, 7.62%, Other/Undecided 1.23%

Romney leading among R’s, 94.47%, 4.74%, Other/Undecided .79%

Romney leading among Indies: 47.40%, 38.13%. Other/Undecided 14.16%

So we see the following Romney is leading among crossover voters by 2.88% and he is leading among Independents by 9.57%

I make the following assumptions to simplify. Independents will comprise 30% of the total vote. Among the 14.16% of undecided independents 6% will go to third party candidates.

The rest of the independents will break towards the challenger by a 70/30% ratio (a little under the historical norm.

If the turnout model is +3% R as per Gallup Romney wins 54.1% to 45.1%.

It is reminiscent of the 2006 & 2008 here they dems won big in the midterm then had and even bigger in the following election.


32 posted on 11/04/2012 1:36:05 PM PST by Leto
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To: Leto

Did you see these CO early voting numbers:

Republicans Early Voting Strong in Colorado — David Ramos

Another dispatch from reader David Ramos:

Final totals on early voting in Colorado from the Secretary of State’s office:

Total ballots cast – 1,640,023
Total Republican voters – 605,586
Total Democratic voters – 567,569
Total Unaffiliated (Independent) voters – 449,720
Total third party voters – 17,148

In the swing counties

Arapahoe County – Republicans lead by 1,327
Jefferson County – Republicans lead by 6,602
Larimer County – Republicans lead by 7,004

In the strong Democratic counties

Denver – Democrats lead by 68,736
Boulder – Democrats lead by 11,488
Adams – Democrats lead by 11,416
Pueblo – Democrats lead by 10,702

In the strong Republican counties

El Paso – Republicans lead by 45,204
Douglas – Republicans lead by 39,166
Mesa – Republicans lead by 14,183
Weld – Republicans lead by 12,600

What the numbers mean:

The Democrats – Their GOTV effort need to run up their totals in their strong counties. If there’s a surprise in the EV numbers, it’s from Boulder County. In the state, Boulder is commonly referred to as the “People’s Republic of Boulder.” For Democrats to be ahead only by 11,488, it may be a sign the more extreme elements of the Democrat party are disappointed with Obama.

The Republicans – If they’ve saved their turnout for Election Day, they need to run up their totals in El Paso County – we’re talking at least a 65-35 split. The best margin of victory ever was Bush 43 in 2004 where he won El Paso County 75-25. Douglas County has a strong Libertarian bent, but are reliably Republican in their voting pattern.

The Unaffiliateds (Independents) – They have the key to victory. It would be safe to assume unaffiliateds in strong Democratic areas to identify and vote closer to the Democratic side, and unaffiliateds in strong Republican areas to identify and vote closer to the Republican side. The unaffiliated voter bloc to watch will be in the swing counties of Jefferson, Arapahoe, and Larimer.

Total unaffiliated (independent) early voters – swing counties

Arapahoe – 48,625
Jefferson – 60,600
Larimer – 37,485

If they split along the same percentages as the R/D pairing in these counties, this is what you would see:

Arapahoe – 24,546 voted Republican
Jefferson – 31,666 voted Republican
Larimer – 20,381 voted Republican

The Republican lean among unaffiliated voters in these three swing counties is averaging 52-48 in favor of Romney.

Based on these numbers, the early voting pattern is showing Romney is doing what he needs to do to carry Colorado: mind the gap – especially in the swing counties, lead among independent voters, and increase his margin in solid Republican areas.  Please note these totals only reflect those ballots cast on voting machines at EV sites. Mail-in and absentee ballots are counted on election night.  Hope this gives a better view of how Colorado stands heading into election day.

– David Ramos


33 posted on 11/04/2012 1:54:49 PM PST by crosslink (Moderates should play in the middle of a busy street)
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To: onyx

Thanks for the ping, check out the CO info I found in my post. Ow we know why O was in Boulder on Thursday.


34 posted on 11/04/2012 1:59:06 PM PST by crosslink (Moderates should play in the middle of a busy street)
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To: onyx

BUMP!


35 posted on 11/04/2012 2:43:22 PM PST by maggief
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To: CaptainK

I’m surprised at how many black folks are posting there about not voting for him.


36 posted on 11/04/2012 3:00:10 PM PST by Straight Vermonter (Posting from deep behind the Maple Curtain)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

On election day, we should all visit a CFA for a meal, a snack, a carry-out, or a gift card. Let’s send another message!


37 posted on 11/04/2012 9:45:26 PM PST by Pining_4_TX ( The state is the great fiction by which everybody seeks to live at the expense of everybody else. ~)
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