Skip to comments.Parsing the Polls (Gallup is Projecting R+3 turnout)
Posted on 11/04/2012 11:50:34 AM PST by Perdogg
Last week, the Gallup Organization provided more fodder for the debate over whether this years polls are skewed due to a systematic over-representation of Democrats in the samples. If Gallup has it right, Governor Romneys lead may be several percentage points greater than the most recent round of polls suggests.
Gallup reviewed all of its interviews with likely voters conducted since October 1. Its conclusion: The composition of the electorate for the 2012 presidential election is looking quite similar to what it was in 2008 as well as 2004. Indeed, whether the sample is broken out on the basis of race, gender, level of education, or geographic location, the percentage of likely voters in each subset is no different than it was four years earlier.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
Nate Silver gives it to Romney if the turnout is R+1.
my mother-in-law, am 86 year old life-long democrat, is considering not voting for obama this time around.
Great news!! I am hearing that from many Dems on twitter..those who voted for Obama in 2008 but either will be voting for Romney on Tuesday or just staying home. Even many Dems are sick and tired of Obama..the only support Obama will get is from the far left kooks and of course the media
“my mother-in-law, am 86 year old life-long democrat, is considering not voting for obama this time around.”
Tough nuts cracking all over the place :)
Excellent. We need a pic of the LGBT “counter protest” for comparison :-)
“far left kooks and of course the media”
One in the same.....
Great analysis m. Aligns perfectly with my thinking!
No, we don’t!
R+3 = Obama destruction.
R+3 = Obama destruction.
If it’s R+3 it will be an early night.
“Gallup reviewed all of its interviews with likely voters conducted since October 1.”
As the Gallup turns.....the new soap opera.
As stated my my self and others, Romney has always led.
It is Gallup’s time to protect its integrity (laugh track) as the election draws nigh.
How clever “reviewed” is as a segue to retention of integrity.
The confidence in an Obama victory over at DU is unshakable.
I’m no Romney fan, but the pleasure of helping to make heads explode over there won him my vote.
Here’s to a conservative House and Senate to keep Mitt on the straight and narrow!
I won’t even attempt a guess at what gender that is.
“#WhyImNotVotingForObama is the number 2 trending topic on twitter right now”
Well crap! Things like this will spoil all our fun over at DU on election night :(
I’m going to bring bagels and cream cheese to the office the day after the election.
I would really like to cater lunch from the Hollywood Chik-Fil-A but have decided not to be that perverse.
I guess if you aren’t voting for P-diddy Obama you are a racist according to some of the posts.
The Liberal Messiah is tied in national polls that are D+3. If more Republicans outvote Democrats nationally, Romney should be in good shape.
From all the poll analyst here some say even if it’s +2 or +3 Dem Romney can/will win. As long as it’s +3 or under for the Dems.
Too late — I asked for the ICK pic and got it! Sorry, I didn’t think that out too well...
To expand on my earlier post, if Gallup is predicting a R +3% turnout model.
If this is true (R +3%). Then Romney will win by 9%
Looking at the raw data over at:Rebalanced Presidential Election Polls 2012
The samples of all the national polls include 30,000 voters. This is a huge sample size so the margin of error should be very small.
Looking across the %s across the 30,000 raw numbers polled we see the following:
Obama leading among dems, 91.15%, 7.62%, Other/Undecided 1.23%
Romney leading among Rs, 94.47%, 4.74%, Other/Undecided .79%
Romney leading among Indies: 47.40%, 38.13%. Other/Undecided 14.16%
So we see the following Romney is leading among crossover voters by 2.88% and he is leading among Independents by 9.57%
I make the following assumptions to simplify. Independents will comprise 30% of the total vote. Among the 14.16% of undecided independents 6% will go to third party candidates.
The rest of the independents will break towards the challenger by a 70/30% ratio (a little under the historical norm.
If the turnout model is +3% R as per Gallup Romney wins 54.1% to 45.1%.
It is reminiscent of the 2006 & 2008 here they dems won big in the midterm then had and even bigger in the following election.
Did you see these CO early voting numbers:
Republicans Early Voting Strong in Colorado David Ramos
Another dispatch from reader David Ramos:
Final totals on early voting in Colorado from the Secretary of States office:
Total ballots cast 1,640,023
Total Republican voters 605,586
Total Democratic voters 567,569
Total Unaffiliated (Independent) voters 449,720
Total third party voters 17,148
In the swing counties
Arapahoe County Republicans lead by 1,327
Jefferson County Republicans lead by 6,602
Larimer County Republicans lead by 7,004
In the strong Democratic counties
Denver Democrats lead by 68,736
Boulder Democrats lead by 11,488
Adams Democrats lead by 11,416
Pueblo Democrats lead by 10,702
In the strong Republican counties
El Paso Republicans lead by 45,204
Douglas Republicans lead by 39,166
Mesa Republicans lead by 14,183
Weld Republicans lead by 12,600
What the numbers mean:
The Democrats Their GOTV effort need to run up their totals in their strong counties. If theres a surprise in the EV numbers, its from Boulder County. In the state, Boulder is commonly referred to as the Peoples Republic of Boulder. For Democrats to be ahead only by 11,488, it may be a sign the more extreme elements of the Democrat party are disappointed with Obama.
The Republicans If theyve saved their turnout for Election Day, they need to run up their totals in El Paso County were talking at least a 65-35 split. The best margin of victory ever was Bush 43 in 2004 where he won El Paso County 75-25. Douglas County has a strong Libertarian bent, but are reliably Republican in their voting pattern.
The Unaffiliateds (Independents) They have the key to victory. It would be safe to assume unaffiliateds in strong Democratic areas to identify and vote closer to the Democratic side, and unaffiliateds in strong Republican areas to identify and vote closer to the Republican side. The unaffiliated voter bloc to watch will be in the swing counties of Jefferson, Arapahoe, and Larimer.
Total unaffiliated (independent) early voters swing counties
If they split along the same percentages as the R/D pairing in these counties, this is what you would see:
Arapahoe 24,546 voted Republican
Jefferson 31,666 voted Republican
Larimer 20,381 voted Republican
The Republican lean among unaffiliated voters in these three swing counties is averaging 52-48 in favor of Romney.
Based on these numbers, the early voting pattern is showing Romney is doing what he needs to do to carry Colorado: mind the gap especially in the swing counties, lead among independent voters, and increase his margin in solid Republican areas. Please note these totals only reflect those ballots cast on voting machines at EV sites. Mail-in and absentee ballots are counted on election night. Hope this gives a better view of how Colorado stands heading into election day.
Thanks for the ping, check out the CO info I found in my post. Ow we know why O was in Boulder on Thursday.
I’m surprised at how many black folks are posting there about not voting for him.
On election day, we should all visit a CFA for a meal, a snack, a carry-out, or a gift card. Let’s send another message!