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Parsing the Polls (Gallup is Projecting R+3 turnout)
NRO ^

Posted on 11/04/2012 11:50:34 AM PST by Perdogg

Last week, the Gallup Organization provided more fodder for the debate over whether this year’s polls are skewed due to a systematic over-representation of Democrats in the samples. If Gallup has it right, Governor Romney’s lead may be several percentage points greater than the most recent round of polls suggests.

Gallup reviewed all of its interviews with “likely voters” conducted since October 1. Its conclusion: “The composition of the electorate for the 2012 presidential election is looking quite similar to what it was in 2008 as well as 2004.” Indeed, whether the sample is broken out on the basis of race, gender, level of education, or geographic location, the percentage of likely voters in each subset is no different than it was four years earlier.

(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...


TOPICS: Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: election2012
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1 posted on 11/04/2012 11:50:37 AM PST by Perdogg
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To: Perdogg

Nate Silver gives it to Romney if the turnout is R+1.


2 posted on 11/04/2012 11:52:26 AM PST by AU72
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To: SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; Ravi; ...

ping


3 posted on 11/04/2012 11:52:34 AM PST by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: Perdogg

Can’t wait!!!


4 posted on 11/04/2012 11:52:56 AM PST by Michigander222
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To: Perdogg
This is what R+3 looks like:


5 posted on 11/04/2012 11:53:10 AM PST by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the psychopath.)
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To: Perdogg

my mother-in-law, am 86 year old life-long democrat, is considering not voting for obama this time around.


6 posted on 11/04/2012 11:54:45 AM PST by stickywillie (stanley ann went black, & never came back)
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To: stickywillie

Great news!! I am hearing that from many Dems on twitter..those who voted for Obama in 2008 but either will be voting for Romney on Tuesday or just staying home. Even many Dems are sick and tired of Obama..the only support Obama will get is from the far left kooks and of course the media


7 posted on 11/04/2012 11:57:42 AM PST by Sarah Barracuda
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To: stickywillie

“my mother-in-law, am 86 year old life-long democrat, is considering not voting for obama this time around.”

Tough nuts cracking all over the place :)


8 posted on 11/04/2012 11:57:46 AM PST by Michigander222
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Excellent. We need a pic of the LGBT “counter protest” for comparison :-)


9 posted on 11/04/2012 11:59:08 AM PST by Heart of Georgia ("Together we will unite America and get this done" - Paul Ryan - August 11, 2012)
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To: Heart of Georgia
This is what D-3 looks like:


10 posted on 11/04/2012 12:02:56 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the psychopath.)
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To: Sarah Barracuda

“far left kooks and of course the media”

One in the same.....


11 posted on 11/04/2012 12:03:16 PM PST by Puckster ( "Neanderthals Rule")
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To: Perdogg

Great analysis m. Aligns perfectly with my thinking!


12 posted on 11/04/2012 12:03:19 PM PST by pgkdan (A vote for anyone but Romney is a vote for obama. GO MITT!!)
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To: Heart of Georgia

No, we don’t!


13 posted on 11/04/2012 12:04:33 PM PST by RPTMS
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To: Perdogg

R+3 = Obama destruction.


14 posted on 11/04/2012 12:05:02 PM PST by Red Steel
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To: Perdogg

R+3 = Obama destruction.


15 posted on 11/04/2012 12:05:16 PM PST by Red Steel
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To: Red Steel

If it’s R+3 it will be an early night.


16 posted on 11/04/2012 12:07:53 PM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: Perdogg

“Gallup reviewed all of its interviews with “likely voters” conducted since October 1.”

As the Gallup turns.....the new soap opera.

As stated my my self and others, Romney has always led.

It is Gallup’s time to protect its integrity (laugh track) as the election draws nigh.

How clever “reviewed” is as a segue to retention of integrity.


17 posted on 11/04/2012 12:08:50 PM PST by Puckster ( "Neanderthals Rule")
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To: Perdogg

The confidence in an Obama victory over at DU is unshakable.

I’m no Romney fan, but the pleasure of helping to make heads explode over there won him my vote.

Here’s to a conservative House and Senate to keep Mitt on the straight and narrow!


18 posted on 11/04/2012 12:08:51 PM PST by M1911A1
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

I won’t even attempt a guess at what gender that is.


19 posted on 11/04/2012 12:10:06 PM PST by Heart of Georgia ("Together we will unite America and get this done" - Paul Ryan - August 11, 2012)
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To: AU72
#WhyImNotVotingForObama is the number 2 trending topic on twitter right now
20 posted on 11/04/2012 12:12:52 PM PST by CaptainK (...please make it stop. Shake a can of pennies at it.)
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