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Some State Polls Point to Romney Upset
commentarymagazine.com ^ | 11.04.2012 - 11:35 AM | Jonathan S. Tobin

Posted on 11/04/2012 11:24:18 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach

As I wrote last night, liberal analysts are right when they point out that the preponderance of state polls have greatly strengthened President Obama’s hopes for re-election. But a couple of the latest ones published this morning contradict that conviction, which caused New York Times columnist Paul Krugman to claim only stupid people think the election is not a cinch for Obama. One Democratic-leaning pollster has Romney ahead by one point in supposedly deep-blue Michigan, while a new Pennsylvania poll shows the race there deadlocked.

These may be outliers, but even a Nobel laureate (and, as the Wall Street Journal’s James Taranto likes to say, “former Enron advisor”) like Krugman is smart enough to understand that if Romney wins Pennsylvania and Michigan, Obama has virtually no chance to get to 270 electoral votes. The point here is that while we are all rightly focused on who will win Ohio, the president’s hold on a number of states that were thought to be likely Democrat wins is far from secure. What’s happened in the last month since the Denver debate turned the race around is not just a surge of Republican strength in the South and the West but a surprising comeback for the GOP in the rust belt and the Midwest.

The Michigan poll is from the Democratic firm of Baydoun/Foster sponsored by WJBK Fox Channel 2 in Detroit, and has a sample that has a nine percent edge for the Democrats in terms of partisan identification. More tellingly, it is a fairly large number of respondents for a state poll — 1,913 likely voters — and a relatively low margin of error at 2.24 percent. Yet shockingly it shows Romney up by more than half a percentage point: 46.86 percent to 46.24 percent.

(Excerpt) Read more at commentarymagazine.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: election2012; obama; romney

1 posted on 11/04/2012 11:24:25 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach
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To: Marine_Uncle
*********************************EXCERPT*******************************************

In Pennsylvania, a Susquehanna poll sponsored by the Scranton Tribune shows the race in Pennsylvania a virtual tie.

2 posted on 11/04/2012 11:26:22 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

I though Susquehanna showed Romney +4 in Pennsylvania.


3 posted on 11/04/2012 11:28:00 AM PST by WashingtonSource
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Krugman is insane—or, at least, delusional.


4 posted on 11/04/2012 11:29:36 AM PST by House Atreides
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To: WashingtonSource

The SQ poll in PA from 10/22 did show a Romney +4 lead. But their poll released today for the Tribune, shows it tied.


5 posted on 11/04/2012 11:30:31 AM PST by gswilder
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

All the polls are way off!


6 posted on 11/04/2012 11:31:47 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: WashingtonSource
That was a poll taken around Oct 18...I think...

There was a lengthy thread and toward the end some pointed out that the claim it was a recent poll was incorrect....might have been done on purpose.

7 posted on 11/04/2012 11:32:52 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Below is an email from FNC’s Ed Henry

In a nostalgic move, President Obama is going to be joined on Air Force One Monday by former aides Robert Gibbs and Reggie Love, according to a campaign official

The official noted the President has already said that win or lose this will be his last campaign — no comeback in 2016 if he fails this time. So the President wants some of the people who were with him at the beginning around for the last hours of his last campaign.


8 posted on 11/04/2012 11:33:25 AM PST by jennychase
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To: goldstategop

ALL?


9 posted on 11/04/2012 11:34:03 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
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To: jennychase

Maybe he knows somwrhing?


10 posted on 11/04/2012 11:35:46 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
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To: jennychase

Sounds like a political wake abourd AF1.

Let’s hope so...


11 posted on 11/04/2012 11:36:36 AM PST by Col Frank Slade
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To: jennychase
Below is an email from FNC’s Ed Henry In a nostalgic move, President Obama is going to be joined on Air Force One Monday by former aides Robert Gibbs and Reggie Love, according to a campaign official

Reggie LOVE? Barack's boyfriend is back?

Well, I gotta give him credit. Despite their little cat fight, looks like Reggie is there for Barack when the chips are down.

12 posted on 11/04/2012 11:39:05 AM PST by Lazamataz (The Pravda Press has gone from 'biased' straight on through to 'utterly bizarre'.)
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To: Col Frank Slade

More like a statement to his supporters to get him across the finish line in 1st.


13 posted on 11/04/2012 11:39:47 AM PST by CatOwner
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To: Col Frank Slade

With no bell to ring for the undead.


14 posted on 11/04/2012 11:43:10 AM PST by Red Steel
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

1980: “A few outlier polls point to a Reagan upset.”

Hehehe. Wise man says to watch what happens little sparrows...my patawahns.


15 posted on 11/04/2012 11:50:55 AM PST by Jeff Head
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Two more days to go. The we shall see which pollsters had it right.


16 posted on 11/04/2012 11:55:27 AM PST by Marine_Uncle (Honor must be earned.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Paul Krugman is a liar


17 posted on 11/04/2012 11:58:52 AM PST by yldstrk (My heroes have always been cowboys)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

paul krugman s the only man in the world with penis envy.


18 posted on 11/04/2012 12:07:27 PM PST by JohnBrowdie (http://forum.stink-eye.net)
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To: Col Frank Slade
Sounds like a political wake abourd AF1.

Maybe AF1 should be grounded until Romney takes up residence in the White House just to prevent Obama from flying it into some skyscraper somewhere?

19 posted on 11/04/2012 12:08:07 PM PST by The Duke
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
"Maybe he knows something?"

Krugman? Doubtful.

20 posted on 11/04/2012 12:53:47 PM PST by Reo (the 4th Estate is a 5th Column)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

So the author is trying to be positive by admitting Romney win would be an upset? Wow, I feel so much better.


21 posted on 11/04/2012 12:55:57 PM PST by paul544
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To: Lazamataz
Reggie LOVE? Barack's boyfriend is back?

Presidential Mile High Club?

22 posted on 11/04/2012 1:05:12 PM PST by A CA Guy ( God Bless America, God bless and keep safe our fighting men and women.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

When Gallup shows that the advantage has swung 15 points to the GOP the writing is on the wall. Tuesday may be an early night.


23 posted on 11/04/2012 1:16:20 PM PST by Mike Darancette (Obama didn't fix it!)
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To: jennychase
The official noted the President has already said that win or lose this will be his last campaign — no comeback in 2016 if he fails this time. So the President wants some of the people who were with him at the beginning around for the last hours of his last campaign.

Game. Set. Match.

24 posted on 11/04/2012 1:28:59 PM PST by ez (When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail.)
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To: gswilder

OK. Thanks.


25 posted on 11/04/2012 1:30:45 PM PST by WashingtonSource
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

More of the weird phenomenon others have noted shows up in this article: the larger the sample size the more favorable the poll is to Romney. I know of no statistical basis for such a phenomenon, but we have to hope and pray it carries over to the ultimate poll with the largest sample size — the election on November 6.


26 posted on 11/04/2012 2:55:08 PM PST by The_Reader_David (And when they behead your own people in the wars which are to come, then you will know...)
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