Skip to comments.Some State Polls Point to Romney Upset
Posted on 11/04/2012 11:24:18 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach
As I wrote last night, liberal analysts are right when they point out that the preponderance of state polls have greatly strengthened President Obamas hopes for re-election. But a couple of the latest ones published this morning contradict that conviction, which caused New York Times columnist Paul Krugman to claim only stupid people think the election is not a cinch for Obama. One Democratic-leaning pollster has Romney ahead by one point in supposedly deep-blue Michigan, while a new Pennsylvania poll shows the race there deadlocked.
These may be outliers, but even a Nobel laureate (and, as the Wall Street Journals James Taranto likes to say, former Enron advisor) like Krugman is smart enough to understand that if Romney wins Pennsylvania and Michigan, Obama has virtually no chance to get to 270 electoral votes. The point here is that while we are all rightly focused on who will win Ohio, the presidents hold on a number of states that were thought to be likely Democrat wins is far from secure. Whats happened in the last month since the Denver debate turned the race around is not just a surge of Republican strength in the South and the West but a surprising comeback for the GOP in the rust belt and the Midwest.
The Michigan poll is from the Democratic firm of Baydoun/Foster sponsored by WJBK Fox Channel 2 in Detroit, and has a sample that has a nine percent edge for the Democrats in terms of partisan identification. More tellingly, it is a fairly large number of respondents for a state poll 1,913 likely voters and a relatively low margin of error at 2.24 percent. Yet shockingly it shows Romney up by more than half a percentage point: 46.86 percent to 46.24 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at commentarymagazine.com ...
In Pennsylvania, a Susquehanna poll sponsored by the Scranton Tribune shows the race in Pennsylvania a virtual tie.
I though Susquehanna showed Romney +4 in Pennsylvania.
Krugman is insane—or, at least, delusional.
The SQ poll in PA from 10/22 did show a Romney +4 lead. But their poll released today for the Tribune, shows it tied.
All the polls are way off!
There was a lengthy thread and toward the end some pointed out that the claim it was a recent poll was incorrect....might have been done on purpose.
Below is an email from FNCs Ed Henry
In a nostalgic move, President Obama is going to be joined on Air Force One Monday by former aides Robert Gibbs and Reggie Love, according to a campaign official
The official noted the President has already said that win or lose this will be his last campaign no comeback in 2016 if he fails this time. So the President wants some of the people who were with him at the beginning around for the last hours of his last campaign.
Maybe he knows somwrhing?
Sounds like a political wake abourd AF1.
Let’s hope so...
Reggie LOVE? Barack's boyfriend is back?
Well, I gotta give him credit. Despite their little cat fight, looks like Reggie is there for Barack when the chips are down.
More like a statement to his supporters to get him across the finish line in 1st.
With no bell to ring for the undead.
1980: “A few outlier polls point to a Reagan upset.”
Hehehe. Wise man says to watch what happens little sparrows...my patawahns.
Two more days to go. The we shall see which pollsters had it right.
Paul Krugman is a liar
paul krugman s the only man in the world with penis envy.
Maybe AF1 should be grounded until Romney takes up residence in the White House just to prevent Obama from flying it into some skyscraper somewhere?
So the author is trying to be positive by admitting Romney win would be an upset? Wow, I feel so much better.
Presidential Mile High Club?
When Gallup shows that the advantage has swung 15 points to the GOP the writing is on the wall. Tuesday may be an early night.
Game. Set. Match.
More of the weird phenomenon others have noted shows up in this article: the larger the sample size the more favorable the poll is to Romney. I know of no statistical basis for such a phenomenon, but we have to hope and pray it carries over to the ultimate poll with the largest sample size — the election on November 6.