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Battleground Tracking poll: Mitt Romney, Barack Obama tied
Politico ^

Posted on 11/04/2012 10:55:16 AM PST by Arthurio

DENVER— With just two days to go until Election Day, Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama are tied in the race for president. A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of 1,000 likely voters — taken Monday through Thursday of this past week — shows the two presidential candidates tied at 48 percent.

It’s a fitting end to a presidential contest that has teetered on parity in recent months — Obama was ahead by one point in the Battleground poll last week, while Romney edged the president by two points the week before.

-snip-

The Battleground tracking poll has been performed each week. A final poll is being conducted this weekend and Monday. The results will be published Tuesday morning.

The POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground poll, conducted by the Tarrance Group and Lake Research Partners, surveyed 1,000 registered likely voters from Oct. 29 to Nov. 1 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83275_Page3.html#ixzz2BHVjgCVR

(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS:

1 posted on 11/04/2012 10:55:19 AM PST by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio

Obama unable to break 50%, still feelin good.


2 posted on 11/04/2012 11:01:19 AM PST by Paradox (I want Obama defeated. Period.)
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To: Arthurio

Lets see the internals. Probably weighted D+4 or higher. Taken during the height of Obama’s photo op on the hurricane, so not bad.

Romney’s momentum has slowed the last week at least in terms of polling. Whether hurricane or just normal race tightening, we will not know until Wednesday. But at least we are not seeing any major Obama resurgence in these last few days. He still cannot get above 50% in any poll.


3 posted on 11/04/2012 11:02:31 AM PST by gswilder
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To: Arthurio

It seems that they are showing Barry’s bounce with Sandy in these “polls”. I don’t that will mean anything it the voting booth. Americans are fed up with Barry.


4 posted on 11/04/2012 11:03:10 AM PST by FlingWingFlyer (The Red Cross says, Vote For Obama!)
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To: Arthurio

It will be interesting now to see what will be Ed Goeas’ final election voter projection be from the results of this poll. From him comments on C-Span this morning, he will probably be projecting a 50-48 Romney win.


5 posted on 11/04/2012 11:06:51 AM PST by David1 (.)
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To: Arthurio

Didn’t this same poll have Obama ahead recently?


6 posted on 11/04/2012 11:09:27 AM PST by Lacey2
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To: FlingWingFlyer

Post #4. “I don’t THINK that will mean anything in the voting booth.” Sorry.


7 posted on 11/04/2012 11:09:34 AM PST by FlingWingFlyer (The Red Cross says, Vote For Obama!)
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To: David1

They are going to do another poll. I think Goeas and Lake realize tht the storm may have skewed some of these numbers.


8 posted on 11/04/2012 11:09:49 AM PST by Arthurio
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To: Lacey2

Yep, last week it was a 49-48 Milhous lead. That was when Ed Goeas voter projection model was predicting a 52-47 Romney win. But from his comments this morning on C-Span, he is now predicting a 2 point Romney win. We’ll see when it comes out tomorrow.


9 posted on 11/04/2012 11:13:23 AM PST by David1 (.)
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To: Arthurio
What baffles me is this is totally normal. If it were anyone but Obama the pollsters would be making that point.

In the last week before the election, undecided and independent voters take one last look at the candidate they are leaning against. So you always get this tightening in the polls the last week. What we are seeing here in this poll is those leaners are going back to Romney.

10 posted on 11/04/2012 11:15:50 AM PST by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: David1

What did he say on cspan?


11 posted on 11/04/2012 11:19:50 AM PST by Arthurio
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To: MNJohnnie

yep but what baffles me, is that anyone could possibly vote for more damage to be done by this crap president.

truly baffles me.


12 posted on 11/04/2012 11:23:52 AM PST by Chuzzlewit
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To: Arthurio

When C-Span host asked him to make a prediction, he said he thought Romney would win by 2 points and 286 EC votes.


13 posted on 11/04/2012 11:24:37 AM PST by David1 (.)
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To: David1

So Obama lost a point in this poll and yet Goeas is now predicting a smaller margin of victory for Romney? Is he seeing a more pronounced Sandy effect?


14 posted on 11/04/2012 11:25:04 AM PST by Longbow1969
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To: Longbow1969

Exactly! You would think that Goeas would continue to project the 52-47 number with this new poll of his showing the race back to a tie. But for some reason he now thinks it’s a 2 point race. I don’t know if it is the Sandy effect or just the normal tightening of the race. Hope we find out tomorrow when he releases his final voter projection. At least I think he will be releasing it tomorrow if not later tonight. We’ll see.


15 posted on 11/04/2012 11:32:17 AM PST by David1 (.)
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To: Chuzzlewit

Baffles me to.


16 posted on 11/04/2012 11:33:14 AM PST by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: David1

Projection is based on poll internals more than Topline. Obama favorability improved, probably due to Christie/Sandy.

Did he say he’d be releasing a projection tomorrow? According to the last paragraph of this article, Battleground is going to do one final poll.


17 posted on 11/04/2012 11:35:32 AM PST by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio

No, he did not say when he would release it. If he did, I did not catch it because I did not see the whole segment. I’m just making an educated guess because the election is on Tuesday, and you would think they may want to release it the day before. If memory serves, I think Goeas released his final election projection the Monday before the election 4 years ago. I’m sure the last poll they will be conducting that you are talking about is being conducted today. So, I expect him to release his final voter projection tomorrow.


18 posted on 11/04/2012 11:43:05 AM PST by David1 (.)
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To: MNJohnnie

“What we are seeing here in this poll is those leaners are going back to Romney.”

I think that is exactly what is happening.


19 posted on 11/04/2012 11:46:03 AM PST by Parley Baer
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To: Lacey2

ha ha - teetering on parity, my redneck rump. The MSM had this in the bag, over, embarrassing, and unnecessary for six months. It only teetered, er fell over, after the Face-Plant-in-Denver when people could see the truth for themselves. The media were delusional before and delusional now.


20 posted on 11/04/2012 11:53:07 AM PST by epluribus_2
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To: Parley Baer

It is what I too have been expecting.

If it comes to fruition, then all these rumors of Romney’s death will have been greatly exaggerated.

Tommorow’s tracking polls tell the tale. If there is no movement towards Romney, it will be an extremely close race that could go either way.

On the other hand, if Romney picks up a point or two, we will finally have brought an end to the Kenyan’s reign of terror.


21 posted on 11/04/2012 12:20:46 PM PST by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: gswilder

Exactly. I want to see their assumptions about the composition of the electorate. It more than likely is weighted towards a big Democrat electorate. People are going to be shocked.


22 posted on 11/04/2012 12:23:35 PM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: gswilder; All

Note, this same group predicts a Romney win by 4-5 points from a couple days ago despite tied polls after weighting for various factors.

Very hard to tell, but appears to be D+3 poll as well, which is good for us if it’s an even election like expected as well as one with higher white turnout.


23 posted on 11/04/2012 2:37:52 PM PST by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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