Posted on 11/04/2012 6:56:26 AM PST by SoftwareEngineer
I know, it’s like, “ok, define ‘good’, becuse my nerves are shot”.
agree, comebacknewt.
Why isn’t Christie doing a press conference today saying that that Romney/Ryan are the ones to save our country?
Traitor, Judas, Turncoat.
Not really sure I understand what’s going on with Ras’s national polls this last week. He’s basically saying that of the undecideds, O is getting ALL of them *plus* R losing a point of support. Historically, this makes no sense.
It also makes no sense from the internals, as well as state polling. Which is wrong? It could very well be a tied race, but plenty of times a tied race doesn’t actually turn out to be that close at all.
Only 87% Repubs going for Romney. Absurd. No way that 13% are going for O or 3rd Party. I can’t imagine that many Repubs out there willing to throw the election to Zero.
Put it this way, if the race was really tied nationally, O would be up by a small amount in IA, WI, and NH, and up several points in MI and PA. As I understand, the race is deadlocked in those states per Ras, so something is wrong somewhere.
Adjusting the stats based on these numbers gives Romney a healthy lead. Too bad Gallup stopped polling. Haven’t seen anything from Battleground lately, either.
SE-
With the concentration over the base support/crossover statistics, I missed the point that Romney is back up to a 9 point lead with Indies.
If that holds, Romney wins rather easily.
NH,
Yeah. That did make me happy and I pointed that out in my commentary
I fully expect the Governor to win Independents by double digits
Cheers!
Thanks so much for breaking these down, especially over the past few days. What did you see as the percentages to the decimal point w/ leaners?
Same here! Chat later... need to get out and rake some leaves.
Bottomline: Everyone is showing the race to be one of the tightest in history. And so here comes the 3 years of grassroots work - Tea Party, Townhalls, GOTV, Walker Recall, etc.
We can do this!!
Well, that does explain this poll somewhat. Now, we have the issue of whether or not R’s support from Republicans is really 87%, or in fact, higher. If it is higher, which I would expect, it puts him back up by a point at least.
Then, Ras is using a +2 D sample. Whether that is correct remains to be seen. I think this race will be close...not 2000 close, but 2004 close, and that Romney has the edge.
What's even more bizarre is that the state polls don't seem to have moved in tandem. Supposedly OH, MI, MN, WI, PA, VA, IA, NH, NC, CO and FL are all within a few points of each other. And yet these state results in 2008 were spread by 14 points (difference between FL and MI) with the rest in between. Not to mention the fact that media polls show FL and NC competitive when it's generally acknowledged that they'll be won by Romney. So is Obama overrepresented in those states in order to make it look competitive? If so, is the reverse true in places like MN, MI and PA (Romney is propped up to fuel the narrative of a close race)? Or can we assume that FL polling is biased toward Obama and thus so are the other states' polls?
If someone can explain this result as anything other than poll manipulation, I'd like to hear it.
If this turns out to be a D +2 year, Obama may win. But then, according to CNN, 2008 was a D+2.5 year, and I don’t think there is any way in hell that the country is as pro-Obama this year as it was in 2008.
2004 was a R+1.5 year, and I think that is much more realistic. If anything, I’d guess the figure will be higher this year than in 2004. Gallup agrees, calling it a R+2 year.
I think any poll that shows a significant democrat advantage in turnout is stupid. How gullible do you have to be to think Obama is as popular with democrats now as in 2008?
But we’ll see.
Now, let’s see Gallup chime in with a tied race (O up 5 from their last one). The race may be this close, but if it was, the state polls are horribly wrong.
That and the fact that there is not one McCain state trending 0bama gives me hope.
Ras’ data is a mess and I have zero confidence in it.
The turnout model is already wrong.
And the all-important topline number is O still cannot get to 50% even with polls tilted heavily in the Democrats’ favor.
That’s the only thing you need to know about Tuesday!
It will all come down to turnout. Whichever side gets the most people to show up, will win. Actually, the R side will need to be at least 3% ahead in order to overcome vote fraud.
Ras and other pollsters are basically punting this time around. What with early voting, incredibly low response rates, record low Democrat turnout, and so on, this election is going to be very hard for them to handicap. So they’ll peg it at 50-50 as a shot in the dark. Statistically, 50-50 is also the estimate that gives the highest MOE, all else equal. Thus, it is the safest from a reputation standpoint.
Yes. Remember the Alamo. Remember Chick-fil-a Day.
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