Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Daily Rasmussen: SUN: 11/04: R:49 O:49 Obama -8: 2 Days to go!!!
Rasmussen Reports ^ | 11/04/2012 | Rasmussen Reports

Posted on 11/04/2012 6:56:26 AM PST by SoftwareEngineer

Sunday, November 04, 2012

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows the race tied with President Obama and Mitt Romney each attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and another one percent (1%) remains undecided. See daily tracking history.

These figures include both those who have already voted and those likely to vote. Obama leads among those who have already voted, while Romney leads among those deemed likely to vote. Thirty-nine percent (39%) of voters are projected to be Democrats and 37% Republicans. Both candidates do well within their own party, while Romney has a nine-point advantage among unaffiliated voters.

One key to the outcome on Election Day will be the racial and ethnic mix of the electorate. In 2008, approximately 74% of voters were white. The Obama campaign has argued that this will fall a couple of percentage points in 2012 with an increase in minority voting. Others have noted the increased enthusiasm among white voters and the decreased enthusiasm among Hispanic voters and suggest that white voters might make up a slightly larger share of the electorate this time around. It is significant because Romney attracts 58% of the white vote, while Obama has a huge lead among non-white voters.

(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; election; obama; rasmussen; romney
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-100101-129 next last
COMMENTARY BY ENGINEER

This is actually good news believe it or not. Internals show the Governor rising.

He would have been at 50 today but his “Lean Romney” number got rounded down to Zero. This is the first uptick the Governor has had all week. This means that the Sandy bump is fading

Also the bad Gov Romney day on WED fell off. I think THU is also a bad Gov Romney day and tomorrow that will fall off too


1 posted on 11/04/2012 6:56:30 AM PST by SoftwareEngineer
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: LS; Ravi; InterceptPoint; tatown; Perdogg; nhwingut; ConservativeGuy; ConservativeDude; ...

Daily RAS Ping!

Also, look at the commentary by Scott (above). He is projecting a D+2 final turnout


2 posted on 11/04/2012 6:58:15 AM PST by SoftwareEngineer
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer
Photobucket
3 posted on 11/04/2012 6:59:17 AM PST by ConservativeInPA (I advocate indentured servitude for the 47% until the national debt is eliminated.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

Looks like a meeting at the 50 yrd. line and a coin toss is gonna settle this.

YEH! Another tied poll. lol Thanks for your analysis.

48 hours! just 48 hours!


4 posted on 11/04/2012 6:59:20 AM PST by snarkytart
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

Why is he predicting a +2 dem turnout? What was the dem turn out in 2008 on a national level?

TIA!!


5 posted on 11/04/2012 7:01:43 AM PST by snarkytart
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

IF Romney loses this, I put 100% of the blame at the feet of Chris Christie.


6 posted on 11/04/2012 7:03:01 AM PST by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer
Something is really screwy, we are lead to believe that Romney is in striking distance in WI, MI, PA, and MN. All States that traditional go to Rats by a significant margin. Yet Nationally it's tied at 49%, how does that happen? Romney is only squeaking by in solid Red states?
7 posted on 11/04/2012 7:03:36 AM PST by DAC21
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

America is going to choose Obamacare and slavery to government. Game over. The Republic is doomed. Emperor Palpatin is Obamugabe.


8 posted on 11/04/2012 7:04:13 AM PST by SoFloFreeper
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: DAC21

traditional > traditionally


9 posted on 11/04/2012 7:05:49 AM PST by DAC21
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

It all comes down to whether the number of Americans who are informed, self responsible and love this nation can turn out in greater numbers than the Obama base of parasites, socialists, racists, and braindead.


10 posted on 11/04/2012 7:06:26 AM PST by Proud2BeRight
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Proud2BeRight

Did Sandy turn this election from 1980 to 1976?


11 posted on 11/04/2012 7:07:16 AM PST by StopDemocratsDotCom
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: DAC21
All States that traditional go to Rats by a significant margin.

They were within 5% in 2000 and 2004.

12 posted on 11/04/2012 7:07:23 AM PST by Darren McCarty (Holding my nose one more time to get rid of Eric Holder)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: SoFloFreeper
You're defeatist crying is really annoying, having just cleaned my monitor


13 posted on 11/04/2012 7:08:30 AM PST by tomkat ( PAlabama '12 = RR = 300 +)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: comebacknewt

Agreed....that selfish, short sighted walking Jabba the Hut cares more about himself than the future of this country....can you imagine a Democratic governor ever doing what he did?


14 posted on 11/04/2012 7:09:27 AM PST by teg_76
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: Proud2BeRight

These polls are so screwy. Where is Ras coming with the D +2?

I guess we will know after Tuesdsay


15 posted on 11/04/2012 7:10:12 AM PST by Doc Justice
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: SoFloFreeper

Signed up a few days before the 2004 election.

Consistently posting “the sky is falling” garbage.

Try harder.


16 posted on 11/04/2012 7:10:29 AM PST by VanDeKoik
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: SoFloFreeper

Again dude chill. See the forest for the trees.


17 posted on 11/04/2012 7:10:36 AM PST by Ravi
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: comebacknewt

Completely agree with you. Since the 27th Romney is (-1) and Obama is (+3). It still comes down to turnout but the Dems are now well within the margin of ‘cheat’. Based on the topline only, it’s a coin toss. Problem is, Obama has a loaded coin.


18 posted on 11/04/2012 7:11:28 AM PST by tatown (Obama was right, it was a 'one term proposition')
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: SoFloFreeper

Romney may win, but not decisively. That says a lot about the state of the electorate and none of it is good. America is in decline. There is no doubt about that. A failed, divisive, incompetent President like Obama should not be able to pull almost 50% of the vote. He has completely wrecked our economy and finances, but almost 50% of the electorate could not care less.


19 posted on 11/04/2012 7:11:52 AM PST by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

Free Republic’s Concern Trolls out in force in this morning.

O still has not cracked 50%.

And he’s bleeding in Blue States!


20 posted on 11/04/2012 7:12:16 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: LS; Ravi; InterceptPoint; tatown; Perdogg; nhwingut; ConservativeGuy; ConservativeDude; ...

We finally have the DEFINITIVE split from Rasmussen

D/R/I: 39/37/24

UNBELIEVABLY Low Independent number
UNBELIEVABLY High Democrat number

Only 87% of Republicans voting for the Governor, as per Rasmussen.

Plug in the EXACT breakdown just with a 95% Republican vote for the Governor and you will get:

R: 51.53 ((37*0.95)+(39*.10)+(52*0.24))
D: 46.88 ((37*0.05)+(39*.89)+(43*0.24))

So, even if I use D+2 and the ONLY change I make is that I expect 95% of Republicans to vote for the Governor, here is the result I get using the D/R/I of 39/37/24

Gov Romney: 52
Pres Obama: 47

That is what I have said all along!!!


21 posted on 11/04/2012 7:12:36 AM PST by SoftwareEngineer
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

Screw the polls, there isn’t a single one telling the truth, frankly I’m glad they are trying to paint it as a dead heat relying upon hype and drama to keep the MSM energized.

Of which I am ignoring. Making my Bluray player work overtime lately, no live news or shows PERIOD.


22 posted on 11/04/2012 7:13:24 AM PST by Eye of Unk (OPSEC)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: comebacknewt

[ IF Romney loses this, I put 100% of the blame at the feet of Chris Christie.]

Totally agree. Christie can kiss his Presidential aspirations goodbye as well.


23 posted on 11/04/2012 7:14:06 AM PST by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: SoFloFreeper

Oh for pete’s sake, get a grip.


24 posted on 11/04/2012 7:14:16 AM PST by Personal Responsibility (In times of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act - Orwell)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: KansasGirl

Idiots like you haven’t seen the CO Romney event last night.

Does that look like a man who will lose?

I saw the Obama rally in VA and Clinton spoke more than O did. That’s telling!


25 posted on 11/04/2012 7:14:27 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: DAC21

Will RAS release this tracking poll Monday and Tuesday?

I do agree when you look at the internals, that the Hurricane did have some impact last week. Whether it was a shift/bounce, hard to tell. But just the fact the election was off the front page for 5 days, impacts polling perceptions.

In the end, I cannot see Obama getting a lasting impact from the hurricane. This has always been an election about the economy and the role of government. That did not change last week.

Romney trending back up with independents is very good to see. He definitely has the enthusiasm gap. Both based on polling and anecdotal evidence like crowd sizes and campaign messages. The fact that Romney is even close in PA, MN, MI, & WI tells me this race has to be trending his way. And that the top line polls are not picking it up.

Also, Romney has closed or taken the lead in early voting in several swing states compared to 2008. In OH alone, there is a flip of 263k early votes from 2008 to 2012. Obama won OH by 262k. And McCain actually won election day in OH by 60k votes. Even Axelrod this morning didn’t try and dispute the numbers of Fox News Sunday.

In the end, Romney will win Independents. Obama won them by 8 in 2008. So if Romney even wins them by 8 (which is on the low side based on all the polling), they I can’t see him losing the election. Gallup/Pew/RAS have all released Party ID polls in the last week, showing anywhere from a 12-15 point Party ID shift from D to R since 2008. And these are large sample polls with a MOE of 1% (Gallup was over 9,000 respondents).

And finally, Romney will win because he has the enthusiasm gap. Obama had it in 2008, but Romney is drawing crowds 10x Obama in the same states this time. We saw what happened in 2010, and nothing has changed that anger and frustration the last 2 years. In fact, a vast part of the country is even more frustrated than in 2010. The economy is actually going in reverse the last 18 months. And the USSC upheld Obamacare.

Romney is a businessman and has run a well organized and strategic campaign. I am confident his GOTV efforts will carry the day on Tuesday. (we have already seen it in the early voting).


26 posted on 11/04/2012 7:17:02 AM PST by gswilder
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

I am just not buying Rasmussen’s crosstabs with base. Sorry. And you know I am not some conspiracy guy. I see the data and try to analyze it objectively.

But historically (even John McCain in a horrid GOP year), every GOP candidate gets at least 93% of GOP voters. And historically, the GOP always outperforms Dems with crossovers. Even, again, John McCain did in 2008.

And so with the enthusiasm off the charts, I cannot believe that Romney is only pulling in 87% of Repubs - not with everything on the line.

Here’s the deal. With the base support generally being 90%, every 3 points of base you add to Romney would result in a full point in support, i.e. 90 x.36 = 1.08.

For example if Romney were simply pulling in 90% of GOP he’d be at 50%. If he pulls in 93% as is the historical standard, he is at 51%.

This low GOP support will not stand, I guarantee it. Not looking at the size of the rallies, the enthusiasm online, the early voting, etc. GOP is over-performing in every category. While the Dems are under-performing.


27 posted on 11/04/2012 7:17:52 AM PST by nhwingut (Get out & Vote as if your life was on the line. Because it is.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop

Did I say I thought he would lose? I said he wasn’t going to get the decisive victory that he should.


28 posted on 11/04/2012 7:19:27 AM PST by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: snarkytart

The national turnout in 2008, I think, was +8 dem.

No way that happens this time for the dems.


29 posted on 11/04/2012 7:19:38 AM PST by july4thfreedomfoundation (.Remember on Tuesday!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

Thank you Friend!
As I suspected, RAS is playing loose with the numbers.
Thanks for providing the internals, and your perspective.
I agree with your logical results.


30 posted on 11/04/2012 7:20:33 AM PST by sillsfan (Reagan and Sarah are right- WE win, they lose!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

That’s encouraging. Do you know what the cross over numbers were like in 2008? I know McCain won the crossover vote and I *believe* had like 92-93% Republican support, no way Romney gets less then that.


31 posted on 11/04/2012 7:21:09 AM PST by dloreanwiz
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer
The Amazing Morphing Campaign Money Map
32 posted on 11/04/2012 7:21:21 AM PST by Berlin_Freeper (WINNING IS EVERYTHING!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

ABC WAS PO said Romney was going to get 97% of the GOP vote.


33 posted on 11/04/2012 7:21:41 AM PST by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

Hi SE

I did not see this post prior to mine re: Base Support.

This is exactly what I was talking about.

No way, no how that Romney only pulls in 87% of Repubs in the most important election in history.

It’s not a sour grapes post. It’s just historically a fact. It’s an important data point.


34 posted on 11/04/2012 7:24:55 AM PST by nhwingut (Get out & Vote as if your life was on the line. Because it is.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: All; SoftwareEngineer
Romney has done his part better than I think any of us imagined.

GOTV or it's four more of Obama-Biden malaise.

Vote & drag 'right thinking' people to the polls with you.

35 posted on 11/04/2012 7:25:39 AM PST by newzjunkey (Osama's dead... and so is our ambassador - Coulter.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop

I know, it’s like Clinton wants Hussein to win this thing more than he, himself does.

I guess they don’t know how to get Hillary out of jail without the win.

Thwy’ll have to figure that out. Maybe their Arab buddies will have to come through for them and then we’ll have to go through a 9/11 all over again, just like in 2001, when their friend, the absolute nutcase, Algore was supposed to get in.

Romney, watch out, foreigners in high places are expecting a Dem win.

Read up and put nothing, nothing past these baby killers.


36 posted on 11/04/2012 7:25:52 AM PST by stanne
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: SoFloFreeper
Suggestions:

Step away from the internet.

Do something productive to help us win.

37 posted on 11/04/2012 7:26:10 AM PST by Lazamataz (The Pravda Press has gone from 'biased' straight on through to 'utterly bizarre'.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: sillsfan

Romney winning only 87% of republicans is simply incorrect.


38 posted on 11/04/2012 7:27:52 AM PST by Ravi
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 30 | View Replies]

To: Ravi; sillsfan

Long Island Newsday just endorsed Romney.

Long Island Newsday.

Huge and serious.


39 posted on 11/04/2012 7:29:30 AM PST by stanne
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 38 | View Replies]

To: KansasGirl
“Totally agree. Christie can kiss his Presidential aspirations goodbye as well”

There are a lot of vain voters whom would never vote for Christie due to his weight issues. Sounds horrible, but there is no denying many women will vote for the physically better looking candidate, or Blacks voting for a Black person for no other reason than the color of their skin.
Having said that, some weight loss and a change of Party to Indy could be in Christies future.

40 posted on 11/04/2012 7:29:37 AM PST by DAC21
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer
The difference between now and last week is that Obama improved a lot his numbers among democrats in Rasmussen internals. Today internals: Romney GOP 88% DEM 10% IND 52%; Obama GOP 10% DEM 89% IND 43% Now compare this with October 23 internals (when Romney was +4) Romney lost 5 points among democrats, Obama gained 7. Rasmussen has apparently a sample with Dem at 38-39%. This 12 points swing among democrats means a difference of 0.12*38 = 4.56% or 0.12*39 = 4.68% And that's why Romney is not any longer up by 4 but tie.
41 posted on 11/04/2012 7:30:24 AM PST by Massimo75
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: nhwingut; LS; SoftwareEngineer; snarkytart

McCain got 90% of the GOP base NO WAY Romney gets only 87%.


42 posted on 11/04/2012 7:30:37 AM PST by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 34 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop
I saw the Obama rally in VA and Clinton spoke more than O did. That’s telling!

The clip they showed on Fox of Barry with his "you know me" speech was pathetic...like the rotten boyfriend trying to convince the girl to take him back.
43 posted on 11/04/2012 7:31:57 AM PST by Miss Didi ("After all...tomorrow is another day." Scarlett O'Hara, Gone with the Wind)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: LS; Ravi; InterceptPoint; tatown; Perdogg; nhwingut; ConservativeGuy; ConservativeDude; ...

NHWinGut, my brother from another mother (unless you are a gal, then my sister from another mother),

You and I are in agreement that a couple of numbers sound COMPLETELY off in the cross-tabs

First of all, I hope you are feeling better. You were sorely missed.

I will donate $100 to any charity of your choice if the Governor gets less than 93% of self identified Republicans.

Secondly, I don’t buy the low Independents number. Thirdly, the Democrat number is too high

Fourthly, I refused to believe the Hispanic/Asian RT/WT

Scott Rasmussen is a respected pollster, but I feel that post Sandy his data got skewed

I think WED and THU were bad polling days, in terms of people he was able to connect with


44 posted on 11/04/2012 7:32:21 AM PST by SoftwareEngineer
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 34 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer

It will all come down to turnout. Whichever side gets the most people to show up, will win. Actually, the R side will need to be at least 3% ahead in order to overcome vote fraud.


45 posted on 11/04/2012 7:32:28 AM PST by PapaBear3625 (political correctness is communist thought control, disguised as good manners)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer
Romney has a nine-point advantage among unaffiliated voters.

Here's the disconnect in so many of these polls. Either this is a lie or the polls aren't tied.

I'm no math wizard but can do basic arithmetic. I assume Rassmussen can, as well.

46 posted on 11/04/2012 7:32:36 AM PST by stevem
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Ravi

Look, I’ll set aside my bias for a moment and just look at something.

We now have polls that show PA, MI, MN, and WI too close to call. Obama won those by double digits in ‘08,

That alone should tell all of us that the national polls should be taken with a grain of salt, if that. SOMETHING DOESN’T SMELL RIGHT FOLKS. The wave crashes ashore in 2 days!!! Make sure you are all a part of it!!!


47 posted on 11/04/2012 7:33:01 AM PST by BuckeyeGOP
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 38 | View Replies]

To: comebacknewt

Yup. Christie Cream Larry sinclaired Obama.


48 posted on 11/04/2012 7:34:47 AM PST by GlockThe Vote (The Obama Adminstration: 2nd wave of attacks on America after 9/11)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: gswilder; PJBankard

Post 26 is why I believe we will win Tuesday.


49 posted on 11/04/2012 7:35:13 AM PST by Norman Bates
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: SoftwareEngineer
Scott Rasmussen is a respected pollster, but I feel that post Sandy his data got skewed

Agreed... If you recall, Scott said that due to the storm he farmed out his call center following Sandy. If so, that explains a lot. Because none of the crosstabs make sense.
50 posted on 11/04/2012 7:35:17 AM PST by nhwingut (Get out & Vote as if your life was on the line. Because it is.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 44 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-100101-129 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson