He is expected to have an early lead, just not as much as he did in 2008.
The point that is being missed is that registered Republicans (i.e., the Peggy Noonan crowd) will not be voting for Obama at anywhere near the rate of 2008. The other point, made by several Freepers, is that a larger percentage of Democrats will not be voting for Obama. Thus, the early voting by party registration is meaningless, until they count the votes.