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Dispatch Poll: Ohio's a toss-up
Dispatch ^

Posted on 11/03/2012 9:26:08 PM PDT by Arthurio

Dispatch Poll: Ohio's a toss-up

Obama has edge, but high GOP turnout could turn Ohio to Romney

The “Ohio firewall” precariously stands for President Barack Obama, but a strong Republican turnout could enable Mitt Romney to tear it down on Election Day.

The final Dispatch Poll shows Obama leading 50 percent to 48 percent in the Buckeye State. However, that 2-point edge is within the survey’s margin of sampling error, plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.

Ohio remains the consensus top battlefield in the 2012 presidential election, and the campaigns are showing it: Both candidates and both running mates are here today, and three of the four are coming back on Monday. That will make 83 visits by presidential candidates to Ohio this year, a record at least in modern history.

(Excerpt) Read more at dispatch.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: 2012polls
The mail poll of 1,501 likely Ohio voters Oct. 24 through yesterday has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points. The partisan breakdown of those who returned the poll: 40 percent Democrat, 36percent Republican, 21 percent independent, and the rest divided among the other four political parties recognized in Ohio.
1 posted on 11/03/2012 9:26:10 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio

Excellent! D+4 aint happening!


2 posted on 11/03/2012 9:32:17 PM PDT by Ravi
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To: Arthurio

Me don’t likey. OH don’t be big guilty white fools.


3 posted on 11/03/2012 9:32:33 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: Arthurio

D+4, not enough INDs. Flip the numbers. Romney 50-48.


4 posted on 11/03/2012 9:32:57 PM PDT by CatOwner
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To: Ravi

Romney will win both OH and PA.

Its over!


5 posted on 11/03/2012 9:34:12 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Arthurio

#Obamasrevenge
http://twitter.com/search?q=%23ObamasRevenge


6 posted on 11/03/2012 9:34:22 PM PDT by combat_boots (The Lion of Judah cometh. Hallelujah. Gloria Patri, Filio et Spiritui Sancto.)
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To: CatOwner

Yup, this one is looking real good. If OH, goes R, then PA, MI are possible. If this happens its game over.


7 posted on 11/03/2012 9:35:07 PM PDT by ping jockey (Winning in 2012)
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To: Arthurio

Ive read this poll has been very accurately in predicting the winner in years past. This damn state just won’t budge...the Obama campaign has basically been poisoning it for the past four years.


8 posted on 11/03/2012 9:36:08 PM PDT by SMCC1
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To: goldstategop

I know. Very exciting to see this. It represents what i see with the early vote and spreadsheet. Actually still undercounting the republican enthusiasm i see in the data.


9 posted on 11/03/2012 9:36:31 PM PDT by Ravi
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To: Ravi; CatOwner

Nail bitingly close. FWIW, the Dispatch overestimated Obama’s winning margin in ‘08 by 1.5 points


10 posted on 11/03/2012 9:42:04 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: SMCC1

I know. It seems there are too many union members.


11 posted on 11/03/2012 9:42:45 PM PDT by Lou Budvis (I'm voting AB0/RYAN)
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To: combat_boots

I just saw this one and retweeted it:

#ObamasRevenge: The Constitution says what the government can do “for” the people not what it can do “to” the people!


12 posted on 11/03/2012 9:43:33 PM PDT by tsowellfan (KEEP WORKING like we are 10 POINTS DOWN!!!!)
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To: Arthurio

Pretty good news for Romney.

These numbers certainly don’t guarantee he takes Ohio, but he is right in the thick of it and has got to feel very good about his chances.


13 posted on 11/03/2012 9:43:33 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: SMCC1; Ravi

And Romney’s own team said they have OH at +2 or -2 delpending on the polling day. It’s gonna be all about turn out. ALL the polls showing OH tied or Obama slightly ahead cannot be wrong. Period.

The only positive thing is early voting for dems is down from 2008 and up for pubbies in OH.


14 posted on 11/03/2012 9:43:56 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: SMCC1; Ravi

And Romney’s own team said they have OH at +2 or -2 depending on the polling day. It’s gonna be all about turn out. ALL the polls showing OH tied or Obama slightly ahead cannot be wrong. Period.

The only positive thing is early voting for dems is down from 2008 and up for pubbies in OH.


15 posted on 11/03/2012 9:45:51 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: comebacknewt

I heard on the radio today that we can expect from %2 up to as high as %6 in some swing states to be voter fraud and that number should be added to Obama’s side because of it.

I’m assuming this polling data has already considered that.

http://foxnewsinsider.com/tag/voter-fraud/


16 posted on 11/03/2012 9:46:03 PM PDT by tsowellfan (KEEP WORKING like we are 10 POINTS DOWN!!!!)
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To: snarkytart

Just watch my county by county update tomorrow nite.


17 posted on 11/03/2012 9:46:17 PM PDT by Ravi
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To: tsowellfan

Not in ohio


18 posted on 11/03/2012 9:47:11 PM PDT by Ravi
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To: Arthurio

IMO Ohio is looking good, better than Virginia to be honest. If we can steal another midwestern state like Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, we could get some insurance incase Virginia goes sour.


19 posted on 11/03/2012 9:48:41 PM PDT by wolfman23601
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To: Ravi

‘Adolf Hitler’ Shows Up on Voter Registration Card in Ohio


20 posted on 11/03/2012 9:48:51 PM PDT by tsowellfan (KEEP WORKING like we are 10 POINTS DOWN!!!!)
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To: Ravi
Like all polls, the Dispatch Poll is subject to possible error other than sampling error. Other sources of error include unintentional bias in the wording of questions, data-entry error and nonresponse bias. Nonresponse bias means that those who responded might not necessarily reflect the views of those who did not participate. The response rate for this poll was 15 percent.
21 posted on 11/03/2012 9:50:45 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: tsowellfan

A few people out of 5.8 million voters. I will take those odds. Did u forget the purge husted did earlier this year?


22 posted on 11/03/2012 9:51:03 PM PDT by Ravi
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To: tsowellfan
The Constitution says what the government can do “for” the people...

Perhaps you should read the Constitution to get a feel for what it really says.

23 posted on 11/03/2012 9:54:14 PM PDT by ProtectOurFreedom
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To: wolfman23601

“If we can steal another midwestern state like Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, we could get some insurance incase Virginia goes sour.”

Add Iowa to the states likely to go sour. The Nov. 4 Des Moines Register poll is out showing President Obama with a 5 point lead - Romney only has 42.


24 posted on 11/03/2012 10:04:28 PM PDT by Perkalong
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To: ProtectOurFreedom
Perhaps you should read the Constitution to get a feel for what it really says.

And exactly WHERE in FreeRepublic do I not have a feel for what the US Constitution says?

25 posted on 11/03/2012 10:07:31 PM PDT by tsowellfan (KEEP WORKING like we are 10 POINTS DOWN!!!!)
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To: Ravi

I will Ravi. I follow your threads like a groupie. lol


26 posted on 11/03/2012 10:08:02 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: Perkalong

That poll has a history of being horribly wrong. Said Obama would win by 17 points, he won by only 9. Said Kerry would win Iowa by 3, but Bush won Iowa.

Iowa is in play. No other reason for Obama to be spending so much time there in the final weekend.


27 posted on 11/03/2012 10:09:34 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Perkalong

Internals?


28 posted on 11/03/2012 10:11:31 PM PDT by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: Perkalong

Forget Iowa, this is down to Virginia and Ohio.


29 posted on 11/03/2012 10:11:53 PM PDT by wolfman23601
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To: snarkytart

since you are going wobbly maybe you should be reminded that the GOP is doing very already in Ohio.


30 posted on 11/03/2012 10:14:43 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: wolfman23601

says who? VA will go Romney.


31 posted on 11/03/2012 10:16:08 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: wolfman23601

WI is too small to help unless he gets CO and OH too. The chance of Romney winning PA even while losing VA? That’d be the king of all Hail Mary passes.


32 posted on 11/03/2012 10:20:04 PM PDT by JediJones (Vote NO on Proposition Zero! Tuesday, November 6th!)
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To: JediJones

“The chance of Romney winning PA even while losing VA? That’d be the king of all Hail Mary passes.”

You never know. Virginia is very black, which is Obama’s base. Suppose the black vote turns out for Bammy, but the union white vote doesn’t? You could have a PA win and a VA loss. Different demographics.


33 posted on 11/03/2012 10:24:45 PM PDT by wolfman23601
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To: wolfman23601

Romney will win both.


34 posted on 11/03/2012 10:25:43 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: JediJones

No early voting in PA. So a last minute surge in PA wins it.

WI + CO + NH = R victory, assuming VA holds.


35 posted on 11/03/2012 10:25:45 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: wolfman23601

VA is not that “black” - stop being an Eeyore.


36 posted on 11/03/2012 10:27:07 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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37 posted on 11/03/2012 10:27:33 PM PDT by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
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To: wolfman23601

“Forget Iowa, this is down to Virginia and Ohio.”

This is why it is so mystifying that Romney has been spending so much time in other states like Wisconsin and now Pennsylvania. That is what McCain did.


38 posted on 11/03/2012 10:28:16 PM PDT by Perkalong
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To: Perkalong

Or, another way to look at it, less than a week before election day and Obama has only nailed down 47% of the vote in a state he won easily back in 2008.

If undecideds break heavily for the challenger, as they have in almost every single past election, Romney could indeed still take Iowa.


39 posted on 11/03/2012 10:29:34 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: snarkytart

No problem.


40 posted on 11/03/2012 10:30:32 PM PDT by Ravi
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To: Arthurio
That will make 83 visits by presidential candidates to Ohio this year, a record at least in modern history.

What a moronic sentence. Maybe Andrew Jackson visited more times?

41 posted on 11/03/2012 11:00:56 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Obama didn't fix it!)
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To: Perkalong
This is why it is so mystifying that Romney has been spending so much time in other states like Wisconsin and now Pennsylvania. That is what McCain did.

Do you realize Paul Ryan is from Wisconsin!

Do you realize Governor Walker won his recall and has the ground work in place for Romney/Ryan?

42 posted on 11/03/2012 11:16:23 PM PDT by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
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To: onyx

Let me get this straight. Perkalong questions the wisdom of Romney’s presence in Iowa/Wisconsin/Pennsylvania, cites a poll due out tomorrow that I suspect will be juiced, and questions if the Romney campaign is inflating attendance numbers at events to make up for struggling in the polls?


43 posted on 11/03/2012 11:30:08 PM PDT by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: Perkalong

I’ve been polling folks in OH, PA, & WI (and other swing states as a pollster research assistant) for this election. A lot of Obama support but Romney has many backers too. Then I get folks who say they hate both parties/candidates & to “hell” with them both. Lol


44 posted on 11/03/2012 11:30:50 PM PDT by sarah palin rocks
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To: comebacknewt

As I recall most of the feeling by experts was that Kerry would take OH in 2004, if only narrowly. We see how that turned out.


45 posted on 11/04/2012 4:00:20 AM PST by TNCMAXQ
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To: Perkalong
Add Iowa to the states likely to go sour. The Nov. 4 Des Moines Register poll is out showing President Obama with a 5 point lead - Romney only has 42.

Register's "Iowa poll" has 47, Romney 42 with each including one point of leaners.

Are there any other polls out there leaving 11% not allocated to either?! That 11% broke down as 4% Someone else, 2% "Not sure (didn't remember)" and 5% "Don't want to tell".

Does anyone think Gary Johnson wins 4% in Iowa? Ron Paul may have finished third in the caucus voting, but he captured the state party apparatus by outmaneuvering the rest during the subsequent conventions. If the Iowa Ron Paul leadership encourages voting for itself it is advising voting Republican!

As for those "Don't want to tell" folks, was it the voters didn't want to tell or the Register didn't want to tell about them?

I'll concede the "not sure" and "don't remember" folks as Obama fodder, but doubt they'll decide and remember to vote by Tuesday.

The poll provided no D/R/I breakdown. In 2008 in Iowa registered D lead R by a lot (about 200k IIRC), but currently R leads D by 1400 with I leading both. Last weekend's endorsement of Romney was the Register recognizing reality and trying to remain relevant after the election. This poll is their final attempt to thwart reality.

46 posted on 11/04/2012 11:05:57 AM PST by JohnBovenmyer (Obama been Liberal. Hope Change!)
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