Trib poll shows presidential race in Pennsylvania remains too close to call (R 47% O 47%)

Pittsburgh Tribune-Review ^ | 11-4-2012 | Mike Wereschagin

[smoothsailing]

Trib poll shows presidential race in Pennsylvania remains too close to call

by Mike Wereschagin

Published: Saturday, November 3, 2012, 11:56 p.m.

President Obama and Republican Mitt Romney entered the final days of the presidential race tied in a state that the campaigns only recently began contesting, a Tribune-Review poll shows.

The poll showed the race for Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes locked up at 47 percent in its final week. Romney was scheduled to campaign in the Philadelphia area on Sunday, and former President Bill Clinton planned to stump for Obama on Monday. The campaigns have begun to saturate the airwaves with millions of dollars in presidential advertising.

“They’re both in here because of exactly what you’re seeing” in this poll, said Jim Lee, president of Susquehanna Polling & Research, which surveyed 800 likely voters Oct. 29-31. Most of the interviews occurred after Hurricane Sandy inundated Eastern and Central Pennsylvania. The poll’s error margin is 3.46 percentage points..........

[JediJones]

2 weeks ago they had Romney up by 4. In their new poll, Romney dropped 2 and Obama gained 2. So it’s really a discouraging sign, with the momentum on Obama’s side in PA. Still too close to call though.

[FredZarguna]

Ever since I stopped being a union thug in the early 80’s I’ve worked phone banks and as a poll watcher for Republicans. The thrill of Reagan crushing Mondull was a once in a lifetime experience. This year, I just don’t have the time; the memory of being told by McCain’s people that “internal polling” was telling them we could win PA (we lost by 10+) has left me deeply suspicious. I hope it’s true. But I’m keeping my expectations low.

[JediJones]

Democrats in PA aren’t the typical liberals you get further northeast. They are mainly two groups. Blue collar Catholic types, who want very conservative social policy on guns, abortion and marriage, but they want high taxes on the “greedy” rich to be redistributed back to them. The other type are basically libertarians, wealthier, who want low taxes for obvious reasons, would be fine with legal abortion, same-sex marriage, and gun control, but would be fine with government making a bunch of fiscal cuts in general.

This makes a lot of PA Democrats potential swing voters, and it also makes them not particularly enthusiastic, which is why they don’t show up for mid-terms that much. Neither party really speaks to everything they really want.

[JediJones]

the memory of being told by McCain’s people that “internal polling” was telling them we could win PA (we lost by 10+) has left me deeply suspicious.

I volunteered for McCain/Palin here and they told us the same thing basically. Didn't bother to volunteer this time. It was a pretty demoralizing experience. And Romney not even trying to campaign in PA until the last minute, unlike Bush and McCain who hit here heavily, was not too encouraging. Of course I've never been enthusiastic about Romney as a candidate, and didn't bother attending any of his rallies unlike I did for Bush and Palin.