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Trib poll shows presidential race in Pennsylvania remains too close to call (R 47% O 47%)
Pittsburgh Tribune-Review ^ | 11-4-2012 | Mike Wereschagin

Posted on 11/03/2012 9:22:32 PM PDT by smoothsailing

Trib poll shows presidential race in Pennsylvania remains too close to call

by Mike Wereschagin

Published: Saturday, November 3, 2012, 11:56 p.m.

President Obama and Republican Mitt Romney entered the final days of the presidential race tied in a state that the campaigns only recently began contesting, a Tribune-Review poll shows.

The poll showed the race for Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes locked up at 47 percent in its final week. Romney was scheduled to campaign in the Philadelphia area on Sunday, and former President Bill Clinton planned to stump for Obama on Monday. The campaigns have begun to saturate the airwaves with millions of dollars in presidential advertising.

“They’re both in here because of exactly what you’re seeing” in this poll, said Jim Lee, president of Susquehanna Polling & Research, which surveyed 800 likely voters Oct. 29-31. Most of the interviews occurred after Hurricane Sandy inundated Eastern and Central Pennsylvania. The poll’s error margin is 3.46 percentage points..........

(Excerpt) Read more at triblive.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Pennsylvania
KEYWORDS: 2012polls
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To: FredZarguna

Both polls used a D+6. As you say, within the MOE.

If we average the two, it’s Romney 48 Obama 46.

If 2/3 of the undecideds break for Romney he wins 52 to 48.

I’ll take it. It will make for an early night and a Romney wave rolling west!


21 posted on 11/03/2012 10:09:21 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: CatOwner

Yes it is, very much so.


22 posted on 11/03/2012 10:11:05 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: CatOwner

It has nothing to do with registration.

In 2008 it was D+7 (D/R/I) 44/37/18 and in 2004 it was D+2 (D/R/I) 41/39/20.


23 posted on 11/03/2012 10:11:32 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: Perdogg

I guess that makes sense. PA has GOP controlled upper and lower state houses, governorship, and US House representatives.


24 posted on 11/03/2012 10:14:05 PM PDT by CatOwner
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To: Kahuna

I will be at the rally in Philly tomorrow. I’m so excited!!


25 posted on 11/03/2012 10:15:47 PM PDT by PaulZe
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To: CatOwner

a lot of D’s will vote for Romney in Pa.

blue dog Reagan Democrats


26 posted on 11/03/2012 10:40:45 PM PDT by Lib-Lickers 2
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To: smoothsailing

Yeah, unfortunately, I just don’t think D+6 is realistic in a state with a D+13 registration advantage (D+12 active reg advantage as of 10/15/2012.) D+8 or D+9 is probably closer to reality. That still makes it VERY CLOSE.


27 posted on 11/03/2012 11:35:10 PM PDT by FredZarguna ("Post Hoc, ergo propter hoc," is no way to reason through life, son.)
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To: FredZarguna
Yeah, unfortunately, I just don’t think D+6 is realistic in a state with a D+13 registration advantage (D+12 active reg advantage as of 10/15/2012.) D+8 or D+9 is probably closer to reality. That still makes it VERY CLOSE.

Regardless of the D registration advantage, the self-identified vote went D+7 in 2008 and D+2 in 2004. a D+6 sample may be OVERSAMPLING Democrats.

28 posted on 11/03/2012 11:40:41 PM PDT by NYRepublican72
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To: CatOwner
Your figures are out of date. The current number according to the PA Dept of State was D/R/I 50/38/12 as of 10/15/2012.

Keep in mind that the we are a closed primary state, in consequence of which a lot of voters change party ID without changing official party registration unless they have a hot primary to vote in, so registration edge is somewhat of a lagging indicator here.

Susquehanna has a pretty good reputation, although I would be happier with D+8 or D+9. However, there are a LOT of lazy Dems in PA, so we win statewide races quite often during the midterm election years.

29 posted on 11/03/2012 11:41:50 PM PDT by FredZarguna ("Post Hoc, ergo propter hoc," is no way to reason through life, son.)
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To: PaulZe
They are counting on the Philly suburbs being flippable. IMHO, they should be working the Northeastern part of the state as well. Coal country is usually Dem leaning, but has gone for Republicans in Presidential years in the past, and with the war on coal, they will run some anti-EPA ads in the Scranton Wilkes-Barre area if they're smart (much cheaper ad-buy, though far fewer votes than the Philadelphia market.)

I wish the Scranton diocese and Johnston/Altoona archdiocese would have priests reading the episcopal letters being read out at Mass in Illinois this Sunday. OH and PA have very large ethnic Catholic populations and the Roman Church could help.

30 posted on 11/03/2012 11:47:48 PM PDT by FredZarguna ("Post Hoc, ergo propter hoc," is no way to reason through life, son.)
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To: FredZarguna

The registration edge for Dems in PA is that big?? Very surprising considering their congressional delegation usually tilts Republican and I think the GOP has controlled the legislature for most of the recent past. The state is certainly very purple so it must be that a lot of those registered Dems vote Republican in many elections. So I am hopeful Mitt can eke out a win there. If so he will almost certainly take the presidency.


31 posted on 11/04/2012 4:10:04 AM PST by TNCMAXQ
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To: TNCMAXQ

Actually of those identifying as Republican vs. Democrat (including leaners), Gallup has PA with a D+5 edge (in 2011). That’s a large swing from 2009. You can see those statistics as well as other states from this link:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/125066/State-States.aspx


32 posted on 11/04/2012 4:29:56 AM PST by trackman
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To: fatima; Fresh Wind; st.eqed; xsmommy; House Atreides; Nowhere Man; South Hawthorne; PaulZe; ...

PA Ping!

If you want on/off the PA Ping List, please freepmail me.

If you see posts of interest to Pennsylvanians, please ping me.

Thanks!


33 posted on 11/04/2012 5:01:26 AM PST by randita
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To: FredZarguna

Actually, D+6 is quite reasonable. If anything, it understates the crossover vote this year. A D+4 or D+5 is more likely, IMO.

In Pennsylvania, voter registration is a lousy indicator of voter intent. Consider the fact that a D+13 registration advantage has resulted in a current Republican Governor, Republican control of the General Assembly, a Republican majority Congressional delegation, and one of the most conservative Republican US Senators(Pat Toomey).


34 posted on 11/04/2012 5:34:48 AM PST by smoothsailing
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To: smoothsailing

Leftist PPP is claiming Obama has a six point lead in PA... with D+10... (D/R/I: 48/38/14)


35 posted on 11/04/2012 8:57:47 AM PST by Qbert ("The best defense against usurpatory government is an assertive citizenry" - William F. Buckley, Jr.)
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To: Qbert

That’s laughable, PPP is certainly known for skewing polls. LOL

A D+4-6 range is realistic.


36 posted on 11/04/2012 10:34:15 AM PST by smoothsailing
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To: Kahuna

“Brilliant move by Romney & Ryan to make campaign stops in PA.”

It would be “brilliant” if they’d remind the people in PA about Hussein’s remark about the bitter clinger hicks in areas like Pennsylvania. I wonder if they remember that.


37 posted on 11/04/2012 1:57:37 PM PST by MayflowerMadam
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To: smoothsailing

Agreed, but ALL elected in a midterm year. Presidential years haven’t been as fertile.


38 posted on 11/04/2012 4:53:02 PM PST by FredZarguna ("Post Hoc, ergo propter hoc," is no way to reason through life, son.)
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To: smoothsailing

Agreed, but ALL elected in a midterm year. Presidential years haven’t been as fertile.


39 posted on 11/04/2012 5:04:48 PM PST by FredZarguna ("Post Hoc, ergo propter hoc," is no way to reason through life, son.)
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To: FredZarguna

Think positive, Fred.

Remember, Romney was on the winning end of the Redskins Rule today!


40 posted on 11/04/2012 5:17:33 PM PST by smoothsailing
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