Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

WaPo-ABC tracking poll: all tied up as Romney draws even on favorability
Washington Post ^

Posted on 11/03/2012 9:21:36 PM PDT by Arthurio

President Obama and Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney are once again tied nationally with just days to go in the 2012 campaign, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll.

Among likely voters, Obama and Romney are deadlocked at 48 percent. For the first time this year, the two contenders are also tied among political independents, with 46 percent apiece. Before this poll, Romney had been consistently ahead with these potentially critical voters.

While Obama has evened the score with independents, the challenger has made gains of his own. Heading into Nov. 6, 53 percent of likely voters express favorable impressions of the former Massachusetts governor, right in line with the 54 percent who view the president favorably.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls
The Post-ABC tracking poll is a series of consecutive, one-night “waves” of interviews reported as a rolling, multi-night average. The new results are for interviews conducted Oct. 30 to Nov. 2, among a random sample of 1,809 likely voters. The results have an error margin of plus or minus three percentage points.
1 posted on 11/03/2012 9:21:41 PM PDT by Arthurio
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Arthurio

I am told to disregard all polls at this point. But the sum total of everything coming in now, gives me increasing confidence. Everyone needs to pray & vote.


2 posted on 11/03/2012 9:26:17 PM PDT by outofstyle (Down All the Days)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Arthurio
Romney will campaign in suburban Philly on Sunday. Will the suburban Philly vote and thus the PA vote go for Romney?

If suburban NYC's Newsday endorsement of Romney is any indication of what's going on in the suburbs of the NE, then yes PA will vote Romney.

3 posted on 11/03/2012 9:36:06 PM PDT by FreeReign
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Arthurio

Since the polls are overly weighted towards the D, this means a hugh and series victory for our side.


4 posted on 11/03/2012 9:38:37 PM PDT by rdl6989 (January 20, 2013 The end of an error.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Arthurio
An interesting thing about this poll is that Romney is getting 6% more of his base than Obama is of his. (97% of Republicans for Romney, 91% of Democrats for Obama). The independent number is a little troubling, but this poll was taken a couple days ago in aftermath of the Hurricane (Oct 30 - Nov 2) so Obama probably got a bump from that which has already worn off.
5 posted on 11/03/2012 9:39:20 PM PDT by apillar
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: apillar

Yup. 4 day sample. I expect Romney’s numbers to improve as storm days fall off.


6 posted on 11/03/2012 9:43:42 PM PDT by Arthurio
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Arthurio

Yes, independents seem to be closing up for Romney the past week. I think Indy’s have tightened in RAS also.

Only concerning trend of the past week. But this does go back to Tuesday when the hurricane was still churning, so who knows.

All about turnout and GOTV


7 posted on 11/03/2012 9:46:12 PM PDT by gswilder
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: Arthurio

Let’s re-phrase that to reflect reality:

“The WaPo-ABC tracking poll is all tied up as election day draws near and pollsters switch from influencing mode to trying to end up with a final prediction that won’t get them laughed out of the business for the next election cycle.”


8 posted on 11/03/2012 9:46:59 PM PDT by bigbob
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: apillar
D33/R29/I34 If anybody is interested.

Seems a little high on the independents, about right on democrat, and laughably low on Republicans (29% was the 2008 turnout). 35D/36R/29I is what Gallup says is the current makeup. Re-average for that and Romney has a 2 or 3 point lead.

9 posted on 11/03/2012 9:48:04 PM PDT by apillar
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: apillar; Arthurio; snarkytart; SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; ...

In 2004 Bush got only 93% of the GOP (Kerry 89% of Dem vote) and Kerry won the Indies by 1%. It appears to be at least a D+5 poll. Still a pretty good poll for Romney.


10 posted on 11/03/2012 9:51:30 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: apillar

Funny how the Indy splits goes up to 34 right as Obama starts doing better with them.


11 posted on 11/03/2012 9:54:56 PM PDT by gswilder
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: apillar

too many Indies, that is why that number is tied.


12 posted on 11/03/2012 9:56:44 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: Arthurio

Independents are not even, they are breaking for Romney six to one in most cases.

What a clown poll.


13 posted on 11/03/2012 9:57:13 PM PDT by Senator Goldwater
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Senator Goldwater

I am surprised I am even looking at it.


14 posted on 11/03/2012 10:00:01 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

Romney getting 97% of Republicans. Base is strong!!!!


15 posted on 11/03/2012 10:08:34 PM PDT by hawaiian
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: Arthurio
http://news.yahoo.com/elections/polls/ Yahoo! has already called the race for Obama with 303 decisive electoral votes.
16 posted on 11/03/2012 10:19:26 PM PDT by douginthearmy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Arthurio; All

Really disturbed by the independent numbers.

The trend there I think is undeniable.....they are now in the latest polls even or for Obama or barely Romney.

Scary...

GOTV.

Believe that’s due to Sandy and just temporary, but who knows. GOTV just in case.


17 posted on 11/03/2012 10:38:28 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: rwfromkansas

Same here. I think Obama got a Sandy bounce that is now starting to fade.

If we are right, the polls tomorrow and Monday should show Romney reopening a slight lead. If not, and the turnout really is D+4 or better, it is going to be very tough to pull this one off.

If turnout winds up being D+3 or less, say hello to President Romney.


18 posted on 11/03/2012 10:46:06 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: FreeReign

Newsday endorsed Romney? I haven’t read that rag in years. I remember them being as far to the Left as the NY Times. Unless they underwent some sort of ideological change that I’m unaware of, this is shocking.

What about the NY Daily News? I was doing a search on the internet today to see who they endorsed. I didn’t come up with anything, leading me to believe that they still haven’t made an endorsement yet. They’ve always been a pretty Centrist paper, at least by Northeastern standards. If they endorse Romney it will speak volumes.


19 posted on 11/03/2012 10:56:42 PM PDT by The Fop (Excuse me while I clean the saliva out of my racist dog whistle)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: douginthearmy
If you believe that FL and NC are toss up you are really gullible. I'll be back in a second, Kate Upton is in my bedroom and calling me.
20 posted on 11/03/2012 10:57:45 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: apillar

If the hurricane bump hasn’t already worn off, it will likely be pretty much gone in another couple of days.


21 posted on 11/04/2012 12:48:52 AM PDT by Jeff Winston
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

I don’t believe those polls for a second. Just be prepared for every leftist, liberal and Ozombie to claim that Romney stole the election. I have already seen this line of reasoning posted on several forums. The libs believe Obama has it wrapped up. They will not accept a Romney win as legitimate.


22 posted on 11/04/2012 1:22:23 AM PDT by douginthearmy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: Arthurio

Why are we putting ANY weight in an ABC/WAPO poll? In the past these polls have shown Obama ahead as have the other media commissioned polls and they have been (rightly) roundly debunked as being partisan.

My take on ALL these media polls is we are in a psyops game now and the media is trying to put out a number which best ensures getting out the vote for their guy.

A poll showing Obama up by 2, 3 or more may cause some liberals to stay home, believing it’s “in the bag” while a tied or 1 point race will cause people to feel they can win this if they just make sure they vote. IOW, they feel THEIR vote can really make a difference.

OTOH the professional pollster such as Gallup and Ras. will have much more of an interest in getting it right because polling is their primary livelihood. That said I am not past believing even these pollsters will hedge a bit and not go out on a limb predicting a winner unless it is a wide margin of difference.

I have no inside info but I fully expect Rasmussen to NOT call a winner while Gallup, based on the last result showing Romney up by 5 and their extensive research on enthusiasm and how people are self identifying regards Party affiliation, most probably will call a winner in this race in his last published result Monday.


23 posted on 11/04/2012 2:11:07 AM PST by Lacey2
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Arthurio
Yup. 4 day sample. I expect Romney’s numbers to improve as storm days fall off.

And as the pain intensifies despite the WON being in control of a few photo ops. Bloom(ingidiots)berg sent the Guard away because they carried weapons - will slow recovery/dispensing of needed supplies and increase crime.

24 posted on 11/04/2012 4:25:24 AM PST by trebb (Allies no longer trust us. Enemies no longer fear us.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: bigbob

Exactly right, this tightening was inevitable for cred. Pollsters have been creating a false narrative since the Republican nominee was selected. Walking back is no surprise.


25 posted on 11/04/2012 4:44:20 AM PST by adc
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Arthurio

So what is this, a D+15 sample?


26 posted on 11/04/2012 6:02:38 AM PST by SoFloFreeper
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: rdl6989

Not just hugh and series, but hugh and VEY series.


27 posted on 11/04/2012 6:03:44 AM PST by SoFloFreeper
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: The Fop

The News has also endorsed Mitt.


28 posted on 11/04/2012 6:06:07 AM PST by Miss Didi ("After all...tomorrow is another day." Scarlett O'Hara, Gone with the Wind)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: Arthurio

Barry and Mittens being tied among Independents is a joke.


29 posted on 11/04/2012 6:14:34 AM PST by Bridesheadfan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Arthurio

LOL! Just as everyone predicted, the fraudulent polls of the preceding weeks have “tightened up” to show a dead even race so the media can save a little face when Romney wins.


30 posted on 11/04/2012 6:44:36 AM PST by catnipman (Cat Nipman: Vote Republican in 2012 and only be called racist one more time!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson