Posted on 11/03/2012 9:14:39 PM PDT by Arec Barrwin
Trib poll shows presidential race in Pennsylvania remains too close to call
By Mike Wereschagin
Published: Saturday, November 3, 2012, 11:56 p.m. Updated 11 minutes ago
President Obama and Republican Mitt Romney entered the final days of the presidential race tied in a state that the campaigns only recently began contesting, a Tribune-Review poll shows.
The poll showed the race for Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes locked up at 47 percent in its final week. Romney was scheduled to campaign in the Philadelphia area on Sunday, and former President Bill Clinton planned to stump for Obama on Monday. The campaigns have begun to saturate the airwaves with millions of dollars in presidential advertising.
“They’re both in here because of exactly what you’re seeing” in this poll, said Jim Lee, president of Susquehanna Polling & Research, which surveyed 800 likely voters Oct. 29-31. Most of the interviews occurred after Hurricane Sandy inundated Eastern and Central Pennsylvania. The poll’s error margin is 3.46 percentage points.
Nearly 60 percent of people say the country is on the wrong track, and economic concerns continue to dominate. Almost half of likely voters say economic issues are the primary driver of their choice for president.
“I’m concerned about all the young people graduating from college, whether they’re finding jobs,” said Pauline Hoxie, 84, a Republican from Jersey Shore in Lycoming County. Her grandson graduated with a degree in graphic design but works a manual labor job because he can’t find openings in his field, she said.
Democrats shrugged off the Romney campaign’s late play for Pennsylvania, sending emails to supporters and journalists showing past Republican presidential candidates doing the same thing. Pennsylvania hasn’t given its electoral votes to the Republican candidate since 1988.
The state’s urban, suburban and rural voters usually give winners narrower victories than Obama’s 10-point win in 2008. John Kerry won by 2.5 percentage points in 2004; Al Gore won by 4.2 in 2000.
The state is a tempting target for candidates in close races. It has two more electoral votes than the 18 up for grabs in Ohio, the focus of more campaign activity in the past few weeks than any other state.
“Some people call it fool’s gold. Republicans come close but it just doesn’t happen at the end of the day,” Lee said.
It could be different for the GOP this year, Lee said.
Pennsylvania’s unemployment rate surpassed the national average in September after remaining below average throughout the recession. In Ohio, where both campaigns have spent far more time and money, the unemployment rate was 7 percent in September, more than a percentage point lower than Pennsylvania’s 8.2 percent.
“There is no president who only deals with what happens during his four years,” said Lorraine Gregor, 61, a Democrat from McKees Rocks. “I don’t care who the president would’ve been when Barack Obama took office; we would be talking about the same thing today.”
The national unemployment rate was 7.9 percent in October, when employers added 171,000 jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
“I just don’t feel that President Obama is doing the job at all. What has he accomplished?” said Roger Briggs, 67, of Monongahela. He questioned why accused 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohamed and Fort Hood gunman Nidal Malik Hassan haven’t been tried. “They’re too lenient on these Muslims, these radical Muslims. He’s bending over backwards.”
Obama enjoyed wide leads in state polling during most of the race. That narrowed when Romney’s image improved as a result of the October presidential debates. Susquehanna found 48 percent of voters view Romney favorably, the first time he tied Obama on that measure. A Trib poll in September found Obama with a 47 percent favorability rating, compared with Romney’s 41 percent.
“We’ve continued to show the president failing to hit the 50-percent mark. Pennsylvanians have pretty much split their perceptions of him. Those perceptions are hardened; they don’t change,” Lee said.
What changed, he said, is Romney’s image among undecided voters: “Romney has given undecided a reason to vote for him.”
Romney’s image suffered among some voters because of comments he made at a fundraiser that 47 percent of people see themselves as victims entitled to government handouts.
Romney has since called the remarks “completely wrong.”
“I don’t believe Romney is concerned with the working class. I just don’t like how we’re looked at these days,” said Gregory Lutz, 64, a Democrat from Mildred in Sullivan County. Attacks that highlighted Romney’s foreign bank accounts sowed more doubt, he said.
Because he’s taken advantage of offshore tax benefits, “I don’t trust what he says about keeping jobs in the U.S.”
Pennsylvania’s sudden emergence as a state up for grabs shouldn’t surprise anyone, Lee said. Even when state polls showed a wide gap in Obama’s favor, the president rarely registered more than 50 percent, he said.
“I think it’s always been here for the taking,” Lee said. The question, he said, is whether Romney’s recent play for the state is “a day late and a dollar short.”
Mike Wereschagin is a staff writer for Trib Total Media. He can be reached at 412-320-7900 or mwereschagin@tribweb.com.
Read more: http://triblive.com/home/2878015-74/romney-percent-poll-state-obama-pennsylvania-president-lee-presidential-voters#ixzz2BDvjARxP
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Meanwhile dispatch poll shows O-50 to R-48 (Ohio). I almost feel like R/R would be better off going for PA. Ohio just seems poisoned.
Voter fraud - the elephant in the room.
If Pittsburgh is getting polls results that the presidential race is tied then ? Romney is in good shape to take PA.
OH dispatch poll is D+4. not happening. R wins OH by minimum of 2-3
As posters just said on another conservative site:
“If Romney is tied in PA, he’s ahead in Ohio.”
and the reply was:
” Absolutely..and up significantly. WPA votes very much like Eastern Ohio.” WPA = western pennsylvania
He’s at 47% in virtually every state of significance, and many national polls. It’s looking to be the magic negro’s magic number.
Voter fraud won’t come into play unless it is down to a few thousand votes. It is a problem, but the effect isn’t bad enough to negate a 1%+ win.
47%? That sounds familiar for some mysterious reason.
Rooters had Ohio at Obama by 1%
internals: 46% Dem/38% GOP
Feel better?
Rooters had Ohio at Obama by 1%
internals: 46% Dem/38% GOP
Feel better?
_______________________
Actually, I do. ;0)
the cheating machines still worry me though
:p
In case anyone is curious, the Trib is the more conservative of the two major Pittsburgh newspapers. The Post-Gazette is a liberal rag.
I’ve seen an awful lot of Romney signs in the suburbs just outside Pittsburgh - even in liberal areas. Whether Romney has enough support to flip PA red is anyone’s guess, but I certainly hope so, because I’m not so optimistic about Ohio.
Obama targeted Ohio as part of the firewall from day one and has put 100 million into Ohio bashing romney for 6 months. Plus OH, has early voting that started 1 day before the first debate.
PA has minimal early voting and relatively few ads which allowed the real Romney to show through.
Yes, PA and OH are now battlegrounds.
Michael Barone has written about PA also supporting Romney because of Obama’s war on the suburbs and the middle class.
Almost half? WTH can be more important to these people, any people today then getting the economy turned around and jobs created? Something is wrong with this poll.
Not to mention the war on coal that has effected the western part of Pa.
Not to mention the war on coal that has effected the western part of Pa.
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
Why should that make a difference.
I remember ‘rejoicing’ in 07 or 08 when THEY openly vowed to shut down the mines in W PA and Murtha and OB waltzed into office without a hiccup.
Of course while campaigning, Murtha and OB may have ‘marched in backwards’ and everyone thought they were leaving????
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