Skip to comments.Pennsylvania's Most Accurate Pollster Points to Romney Win
Posted on 11/03/2012 3:13:15 PM PDT by forbushalltheway
Mitt Romney and Republican allies have suddenly poured more than $10 million into Pennsylvania to fund a late push by the presidential challenger.
In what could prove to be a brilliant campaign move, the Romney campaign hid details of a Sunday campaign appearance in Pennsylvania until after the Obama team released their final campaign schedule. Now, a new poll by Susquehanna Polling and Research shows Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama by four points in the Keystone State, 49-45%. Critics have been dismissing Susquehanna's tight polling for over a month based on little more than the fact that a Republican presidential candidate hasn't won Pennsylvania since the 1980s. George W. Bush came close, however, in both of his campaigns. Republicans also took the US Senate seat and Governor's mansion in 2010, despite Pat Toomey being called "unelectable" by the media.
If Romney wins Pennsylvania, the race is over. If the Obama campaign and the media ignores Susquehanna's polling, they do so at their own peril. Let's take a quick look at the three most recent major statewide races in Pennsylvania, and how Susquehanna fared compared to their polling counterparts:
2010 US Senate Race - Susquehanna was the only pollster to nail Pat Toomey's two-point margin of victory over Joe Sestak. The media-despised Rasmussen Reports was second closest (two points off), while Quinnipiac and Public Policy Polling (the "real" pollsters) were off by three points.
2010 PA Governor's Race - Republican Tom Corbett won the race by eight points, 54-46. Susquehanna polled the race within one point, showing Corbett winning by seven points. Rasmussen, PPP, and Quinnipiac reported the same margin, resulting in a four-way tie in correctly predicting the race.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
RR must see something in PA to be allocating time, money, and energy there (diverting from IA, OH, and WI in the process).
I do not think it is a head-fake or desperation as some have suggested.
We shall see....
Where are NH, CO and NV?
If Romney wins Pennsylvania, as Susquehanna suggests he is on the verge of doing, he no longer needs Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, Iowa, or New Hampshire. Of course, if he does win Pennsylvania, he stands to win some of those states, too. At this point Romney isn't just looking for a win. He is looking for a mandate.
If you want on/off the PA Ping List, please freepmail me.
If you see posts of interest to Pennsylvanians, please ping me.
I think I won’t get sleep the next 3 days. God, let this be over, and let this country survive this revenge-mongering community divider.
Romney on the campaign trail this weekend: quietly confident, looking forward to the next 4 years. 0bama: angry, exhausted.
Oh, and they ran it during the Notre Dame game as well. Possibly one of the dumbest political ad placements I've seen. It would be like running an ad for Depends on MTV.
RR will be in PA tomorrow in Bucks County (NE of Philadelphia).
I saved some valium from some dental work I had done just to get through the next few days. LOL!
That is my sense as well.
Over the last two days Obama has attacked using themes including "revenge" and the Tea Party.
Romney has been quite the opposite in his themes...
Please, Pennsylvania... let it be real this time.
LOL. I hope Chrissy Mathews is wearing his Depends on Tuesday night or he will feel something different going down his leg.
If you take Philly out of the equation, PA IS a Red State.
And its been trending Red for 20 years.
Wasn’t it already established this was an old poll?
There are lots of conservatives in PA. They are motivated to vote!!!
Is this the latest SQ poll? Earlier today it was reported this was an old poll that got reposted last night and everyone ran with him. My understanding there is a new poll coming out sunday which will show it closer than 4. Not trying to be a downer, but that is what I saw this morning.
Oh how I wish this was true but every other poll disagrees :(
Your “concern” is duly noted....
That’s just a compilation of polls anticipating a Democrat turnout equal to or in excess of 2008. Not gonna happen. Quit blowing smoke and/or wetting yourself.
IMHO, we'll get 'em all. 360 electorals. A slap-down is what's needed. Mitt needs to be able to say we've won the last 5 throw downs: VA-McDonnel, Wisconsin, union-busting, Wisconsin recall, 2010 mid-terms, and now the WH, and every gay-marriage vote we can remember.
Americans don't want your stinkin' ideas
Well, tomorrow will be the final barrage. The good news, the Churchs will be firing all salvo’s too for a change.
I hope it works out well for us. Given how important this election is, how pivotal it is for the nation today and for years to come, we all have to answer the bell.
Some news from the front: had to wait for 30 minutes in very GOP NE Florida today to cast my vote. First time ever I had to wait to get to the polling place in the 16 years I have voted here. If that is an indication of how much interest there is on the right here and if that is an echo of how much it is across the nation, I’d say His Excellency is on the way out. We know and have been told repeatedly it is a close election, maybe so, maybe not but in any event, I just want Romney to win.
I have been gone from FR for a long time and came back to lurk due to the election. I was surprised/pleased to see allt he support for Romney. I live in PA now and I think it’s a lot different than it was in 2008. McCain/Palin were not good candidates. I like McCain/respect him, but he was not in the right spot, and even though Sarah had way mroe experience than the chosen one...didn’t care for her after a while. I do think it’s different this time around. Both Romney and Ryan are strong candidates and even my 18 year old Mountaineer cast her vote for Romney/Ryan. I have been seeing ads for Romney or against Romney for months so I am confused about how they just started running ads, because that is not true. I did go to rally today for Paul Ryan and it was amazing; people were turned away from the airplane hangar at Harrisburg Airport. I got in only to leave in about 5 minutes but still it was exciting.
Anybody hear how the Ryan event in Harrisburg went today? Crowd?
Salens Zito says OBAMA has to match his 2008 turnout to have a chance..
Pennsylvania.....Avenue, as in 1600...and as opposed to Sesame “Street”.
These other PA pollsters that the article mentions... What are THEY saying about the race? Tied?
Well, yet another “concerned” Negative Nelly” registers on 11/1/12. Pretty darned transparent.
The article cited is dated today and speaks of “a new poll by Susquehanna Polling and Research...”
I am pretty confident this was confirmed by the polling outfit this morning, that these are numbers from 10/22. And the pollster said the new poll on sunday for the (Tribune?) would show it closer. I think the tipp off it was an old poll was it had the exact same number of respondents (1376 I believe).
Regardless, its about GOTV at this point. R is close enough in PA to take it with a good turnout. Can’t wait for Tuesday evening. It is going to be a great night.
Welcome to Free Republic. Your purported concern is duly noted.
I’m going to the Romney event at Morrisville, PA tomorrow.
Any other FReepers going?
@NumbersMuncher: Another monster rally for Romney tonight. This one from Colorado. http://instagr.am/p/RlmSk8Mcq2/ picture thanks to @Rick_Gorka
Even if Romney is tied, it is a bad omen for Obama.
I went to one here in Florida several weeks ago- they expected about 5K..there were 10K of us. Get there EARLY and prepare to wait hours. It will be worth every minute:)
“RR will be in PA tomorrow in Bucks County (NE of Philadelphia).”
And me out of town . . .
Not stupid, tactical. Obama is still desperate to shore up his basse.
Sorry, it was stupid. Pennsylvania AND Notre Dame doubles down on Catholic. Some Catholics who voted for Obama would see that ad and decide that maybe Romney wasn’t so bad after all.