Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Pennsylvania's Most Accurate Pollster Points to Romney Win
Briebart.com ^ | 3 Nov 2012, | Dustin Hawkins

Posted on 11/03/2012 3:13:15 PM PDT by forbushalltheway

Mitt Romney and Republican allies have suddenly poured more than $10 million into Pennsylvania to fund a late push by the presidential challenger.

In what could prove to be a brilliant campaign move, the Romney campaign hid details of a Sunday campaign appearance in Pennsylvania until after the Obama team released their final campaign schedule. Now, a new poll by Susquehanna Polling and Research shows Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama by four points in the Keystone State, 49-45%. Critics have been dismissing Susquehanna's tight polling for over a month based on little more than the fact that a Republican presidential candidate hasn't won Pennsylvania since the 1980s. George W. Bush came close, however, in both of his campaigns. Republicans also took the US Senate seat and Governor's mansion in 2010, despite Pat Toomey being called "unelectable" by the media.

If Romney wins Pennsylvania, the race is over. If the Obama campaign and the media ignores Susquehanna's polling, they do so at their own peril. Let's take a quick look at the three most recent major statewide races in Pennsylvania, and how Susquehanna fared compared to their polling counterparts:

2010 US Senate Race - Susquehanna was the only pollster to nail Pat Toomey's two-point margin of victory over Joe Sestak. The media-despised Rasmussen Reports was second closest (two points off), while Quinnipiac and Public Policy Polling (the "real" pollsters) were off by three points.

2010 PA Governor's Race - Republican Tom Corbett won the race by eight points, 54-46. Susquehanna polled the race within one point, showing Corbett winning by seven points. Rasmussen, PPP, and Quinnipiac reported the same margin, resulting in a four-way tie in correctly predicting the race.

(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Pennsylvania
KEYWORDS:

1 posted on 11/03/2012 3:13:16 PM PDT by forbushalltheway
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: forbushalltheway

RR must see something in PA to be allocating time, money, and energy there (diverting from IA, OH, and WI in the process).

I do not think it is a head-fake or desperation as some have suggested.

We shall see....


2 posted on 11/03/2012 3:15:45 PM PDT by wolf24
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: wolf24

Where are NH, CO and NV?


3 posted on 11/03/2012 3:17:36 PM PDT by Paladin2
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: forbushalltheway
From the article:

If Romney wins Pennsylvania, as Susquehanna suggests he is on the verge of doing, he no longer needs Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, Iowa, or New Hampshire. Of course, if he does win Pennsylvania, he stands to win some of those states, too. At this point Romney isn't just looking for a win. He is looking for a mandate.

4 posted on 11/03/2012 3:18:39 PM PDT by LoveUSA (God employs Man's strength; Satan exploits Man's weakness.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: fatima; Fresh Wind; st.eqed; xsmommy; House Atreides; Nowhere Man; South Hawthorne; PaulZe; ...

PA Ping!

If you want on/off the PA Ping List, please freepmail me.

If you see posts of interest to Pennsylvanians, please ping me.

Thanks!


5 posted on 11/03/2012 3:19:11 PM PDT by randita
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: forbushalltheway

I think I won’t get sleep the next 3 days. God, let this be over, and let this country survive this revenge-mongering community divider.


6 posted on 11/03/2012 3:19:57 PM PDT by parisa
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: wolf24

Romney on the campaign trail this weekend: quietly confident, looking forward to the next 4 years. 0bama: angry, exhausted.


7 posted on 11/03/2012 3:21:32 PM PDT by maro (We tried the hope. It's time for change.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: forbushalltheway
Just saw an Obama ad on Philly TV, bashing Romney for quotes saying he would overturn Roe v Wade and eliminate Planned Parenthood. A stupid ad in heavily pro-life Catholic Pennsylvania.

Oh, and they ran it during the Notre Dame game as well. Possibly one of the dumbest political ad placements I've seen. It would be like running an ad for Depends on MTV.

8 posted on 11/03/2012 3:22:16 PM PDT by dirtboy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: forbushalltheway
Rompney wins Florida
9 posted on 11/03/2012 3:23:15 PM PDT by Berlin_Freeper (WINNING IS EVERYTHING!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: wolf24

RR will be in PA tomorrow in Bucks County (NE of Philadelphia).


10 posted on 11/03/2012 3:23:31 PM PDT by grimalkin (Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself. Friedman)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: parisa

I saved some valium from some dental work I had done just to get through the next few days. LOL!


11 posted on 11/03/2012 3:26:03 PM PDT by CityCenter (It's too late, Obama yeah, it's too late.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: maro
Romney on the campaign trail this weekend: quietly confident, looking forward to the next 4 years. 0bama: angry, exhausted.

That is my sense as well.

Over the last two days Obama has attacked using themes including "revenge" and the Tea Party.

Romney has been quite the opposite in his themes...

12 posted on 11/03/2012 3:26:52 PM PDT by wolf24
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: forbushalltheway

Please, Pennsylvania... let it be real this time.


13 posted on 11/03/2012 3:27:34 PM PDT by ScottinVA (Pray hard!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dirtboy
It would be like running an ad for Depends on MTV.

LOL. I hope Chrissy Mathews is wearing his Depends on Tuesday night or he will feel something different going down his leg.

14 posted on 11/03/2012 3:37:22 PM PDT by ConservativeInPA (I advocate indentured servitude for the 47% until the national debt is eliminated.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: forbushalltheway

If you take Philly out of the equation, PA IS a Red State.

And its been trending Red for 20 years.


15 posted on 11/03/2012 3:40:06 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: forbushalltheway

Wasn’t it already established this was an old poll?


16 posted on 11/03/2012 3:44:12 PM PDT by zt1053
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop

There are lots of conservatives in PA. They are motivated to vote!!!


17 posted on 11/03/2012 3:44:45 PM PDT by FreedBird
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop

Is this the latest SQ poll? Earlier today it was reported this was an old poll that got reposted last night and everyone ran with him. My understanding there is a new poll coming out sunday which will show it closer than 4. Not trying to be a downer, but that is what I saw this morning.


18 posted on 11/03/2012 3:44:57 PM PDT by gswilder
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: forbushalltheway

Oh how I wish this was true but every other poll disagrees :(
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/pa/pennsylvania_romney_vs_obama-1891.html


19 posted on 11/03/2012 3:56:45 PM PDT by ocloc13
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ocloc13

Your “concern” is duly noted....


20 posted on 11/03/2012 3:58:49 PM PDT by moonhawk (Free Republic: Show prep for Rush Limbaugh.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: ocloc13

That’s just a compilation of polls anticipating a Democrat turnout equal to or in excess of 2008. Not gonna happen. Quit blowing smoke and/or wetting yourself.


21 posted on 11/03/2012 4:01:55 PM PDT by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: LoveUSA
We need the mandate. And the Senate. A Romney win is key #1 to begin the fix, but it gets difficult without the Senate.

IMHO, we'll get 'em all. 360 electorals. A slap-down is what's needed. Mitt needs to be able to say we've won the last 5 throw downs: VA-McDonnel, Wisconsin, union-busting, Wisconsin recall, 2010 mid-terms, and now the WH, and every gay-marriage vote we can remember.

Americans don't want your stinkin' ideas

22 posted on 11/03/2012 4:05:11 PM PDT by chiller (Sky is the limit with max T-Partiers in the House and Senate to stifle the RINOs)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: maro

Well, tomorrow will be the final barrage. The good news, the Churchs will be firing all salvo’s too for a change.

I hope it works out well for us. Given how important this election is, how pivotal it is for the nation today and for years to come, we all have to answer the bell.

Some news from the front: had to wait for 30 minutes in very GOP NE Florida today to cast my vote. First time ever I had to wait to get to the polling place in the 16 years I have voted here. If that is an indication of how much interest there is on the right here and if that is an echo of how much it is across the nation, I’d say His Excellency is on the way out. We know and have been told repeatedly it is a close election, maybe so, maybe not but in any event, I just want Romney to win.

God Bless.


23 posted on 11/03/2012 4:06:03 PM PDT by Mouton (Voting is an opiate of the electorate. Nothing changes no matter who wins..)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: forbushalltheway

I have been gone from FR for a long time and came back to lurk due to the election. I was surprised/pleased to see allt he support for Romney. I live in PA now and I think it’s a lot different than it was in 2008. McCain/Palin were not good candidates. I like McCain/respect him, but he was not in the right spot, and even though Sarah had way mroe experience than the chosen one...didn’t care for her after a while. I do think it’s different this time around. Both Romney and Ryan are strong candidates and even my 18 year old Mountaineer cast her vote for Romney/Ryan. I have been seeing ads for Romney or against Romney for months so I am confused about how they just started running ads, because that is not true. I did go to rally today for Paul Ryan and it was amazing; people were turned away from the airplane hangar at Harrisburg Airport. I got in only to leave in about 5 minutes but still it was exciting.


24 posted on 11/03/2012 4:07:51 PM PDT by merry10
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ScottinVA

Anybody hear how the Ryan event in Harrisburg went today? Crowd?


25 posted on 11/03/2012 4:11:54 PM PDT by mwl8787
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: mwl8787

Salens Zito says OBAMA has to match his 2008 turnout to have a chance..


26 posted on 11/03/2012 4:16:22 PM PDT by Hojczyk
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: forbushalltheway

Pennsylvania.....Avenue, as in 1600...and as opposed to Sesame “Street”.


27 posted on 11/03/2012 4:21:59 PM PDT by Anima Mundi (ENVY IS JUST PASSIVE, LAZY GREED)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: forbushalltheway

These other PA pollsters that the article mentions... What are THEY saying about the race? Tied?


28 posted on 11/03/2012 4:26:30 PM PDT by Doctor 2Brains
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: forbushalltheway
If this is the poll Breitbart is referring to: Romney Up In PA, it is a few weeks old. An update is to be released tomorrow.
29 posted on 11/03/2012 4:30:29 PM PDT by Mrs.Liberty (Somewhere in Kenya AND Delaware, villages are missing idiots.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ocloc13

Well, yet another “concerned” Negative Nelly” registers on 11/1/12. Pretty darned transparent.


30 posted on 11/03/2012 4:44:01 PM PDT by House Atreides
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: gswilder

The article cited is dated today and speaks of “a new poll by Susquehanna Polling and Research...”


31 posted on 11/03/2012 4:47:19 PM PDT by Lucas McCain (The day may come when the courage of men will fail, but not this day.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: Lucas McCain

I am pretty confident this was confirmed by the polling outfit this morning, that these are numbers from 10/22. And the pollster said the new poll on sunday for the (Tribune?) would show it closer. I think the tipp off it was an old poll was it had the exact same number of respondents (1376 I believe).

Regardless, its about GOTV at this point. R is close enough in PA to take it with a good turnout. Can’t wait for Tuesday evening. It is going to be a great night.


32 posted on 11/03/2012 4:51:46 PM PDT by gswilder
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 31 | View Replies]

To: ocloc13

Welcome to Free Republic. Your purported concern is duly noted.


33 posted on 11/03/2012 4:52:49 PM PDT by Deo et Patria
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: randita

Ping


34 posted on 11/03/2012 5:04:11 PM PDT by Tucker39
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: forbushalltheway

I’m going to the Romney event at Morrisville, PA tomorrow.

Any other FReepers going?


35 posted on 11/03/2012 5:59:46 PM PDT by SnuffaBolshevik (In a tornado, even turkeys can fly.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Paladin2
Re: CO

‏@NumbersMuncher: Another monster rally for Romney tonight. This one from Colorado. http://instagr.am/p/RlmSk8Mcq2/ picture thanks to @Rick_Gorka

36 posted on 11/03/2012 6:04:15 PM PDT by wolf24
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: forbushalltheway

Even if Romney is tied, it is a bad omen for Obama.


37 posted on 11/03/2012 6:07:35 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: merry10
"people were turned away from the airplane hangar at Harrisburg Airport."


38 posted on 11/03/2012 6:23:28 PM PDT by Paladin2
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: SnuffaBolshevik

I went to one here in Florida several weeks ago- they expected about 5K..there were 10K of us. Get there EARLY and prepare to wait hours. It will be worth every minute:)


39 posted on 11/03/2012 6:39:01 PM PDT by SE Mom (Proud mom of an Iraq war combat vet)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 35 | View Replies]

To: forbushalltheway; SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; ...

Poll ping.


40 posted on 11/03/2012 6:41:17 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: grimalkin

“RR will be in PA tomorrow in Bucks County (NE of Philadelphia).”

And me out of town . . .


41 posted on 11/03/2012 10:52:05 PM PDT by conservatism_IS_compassion (The idea around which “liberalism" coheres is that NOTHING actually matters except PR.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: dirtboy

Not stupid, tactical. Obama is still desperate to shore up his basse.


42 posted on 11/04/2012 4:59:43 AM PST by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: 1010RD

Sorry, it was stupid. Pennsylvania AND Notre Dame doubles down on Catholic. Some Catholics who voted for Obama would see that ad and decide that maybe Romney wasn’t so bad after all.


43 posted on 11/04/2012 6:01:43 AM PST by dirtboy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 42 | View Replies]

To: forbushalltheway

*


44 posted on 11/04/2012 7:00:20 AM PST by tomkat ( PAlabama '12 = RR = 300 +)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson