Posted on 11/03/2012 12:29:29 PM PDT by Arthurio
Washington, D.C. - Today’s Reuters/Ipsos national voting data shows the candidates exactly even on 46%. Other findings include:
Over a quarter (27%) have already cast votes, which breaks down to 51% Obama vs. 44% Romney
Almost a third (31%) have been contacted on the phone or in person by one or both of the campaigns
The most important issues to voting are the economy and jobs, followed by healthcare, the deficit, and social issues. Independents especially prioritize economic issues like unemployment and the deficit
These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters from Oct. 29-Nov. 2, 2012. For the survey, a sample of 6,211 American registered voters and 5,114 Likely Voters (all age 18 and over) was interviewed online. On October 29th, Ipsos began boosting sample in four swing states, which accounts for the increase in our overall sample size. The data collected in these states are included in our national sample, although weighted appropriately to reflect the population of each state relative to the national population. The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.0 percentage points for Registered Voters and 3.4 for Likely Voters. Likely voter model adjusted to include all respondents who have voted, as of 10.15.12. For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.
(Excerpt) Read more at ipsos-na.com ...
Yup. No one goes to campaign rallies to hear a loser.
I remember in my youth attending a campaign rally with my father for Walter Mondale in Long Beach, California at Long Beach Airport. He never showed up.
Don’t look at the polls - look at how the campaigns are doing. Romney is doing everything right, the momentum and the enthusiasm is on his side.
In contrast, despite media fawning, O can barely attract a decent-sized crowd. His own supporters are not that stupid. They know the political headwinds are against him.
People will be shocked on Tuesday and every one will be talking about this election for years to come!
I respectfully disagree.
At this point, the only polls worth looking at are the tracking polls.
The state polls that will be released between now and election day would have been conducted during the Sandy bounce. In other words, they are outdated before the are even published.
The trends in the tracking polls should tell us who has the momentum and who will win. Historically, it is the challenger who gains momentum heading into election day.
If that holds true this year, Obama is in big trouble, although it is still very close.
Yes, regardless of top line #, Obama cannot get above that infamous 47% in any poll. And at least this one shows, not major national shift to Obama here in the waning days.
Hey, I just noticed the pic. Is that my hero Daffy Duck?
THUFFERIN’ THUCCOTASH!!!
Even tracking polls are garbage.
The data is bad because it rests on a bad assumption.
Namely, that this election is a rerun of 2008.
It won’t be. But the pollsters refuse to make adjustments for it. And Romney probably knows that in reality, he has a very comfortable lead. He can afford to take some risks.
O has run out of time.
And looking back to 2004 and 2008, the state polls were all over the place and often wildly off the final margins, whereas the national polls nailed it for the most part.
My sister attended Ryan’s in PA just a while ago—said it was packed...and she just made it in before they stopped letting people in. At a guess, she said 3000 thousand people.
The GOP is united I think in NH; it would be great to get Ovide in as Governor with control of the legislature. They could put right to work legislation in place as well as put several constitutional measures permanently outlawing broadbased taxes in front of the people.
Wow... I feel pretty good about Romney picking up PA!
The Mittmentum that the media paints as stalled, is gathering a head of steam all over the country!
Once again, the pollsters are saying that the D+4 turnout this year is due to republicans defecting to indies. Hence, Romney s winning the indy vote.
I disagree completely, but that is neither here nor there.
We could, indeed, be looking at a big Electoral College win.
Ovide was there. Most of the NH team - Chris Sununu, Guinta, Ayotte, etc.
I would like to see Ovide up more in the polls. But it appears he has a steady 2-3 point lead.
He’s been slammed in the TV ads, and really never fought back. Can’t believe that the communist Hassan is even making it a race. But I think the turnout is going to be all GOP and carry pretty much the entire team.
Right now Im hold up both hands with the middle finger on both hands at attention.
I’m with you. If you look at the early voting numbers, event attendances and polling re enthusiasm there is no way the pollsters assumptions re turnout come to fruition. Romney is winning. Period.
I think one of the stories that will be discussed after the election is that national pollsters don’t know how to conduct state polls.
Just this week two polls from Florida showed totally contradictory results. One had Obama winning by five, the other had Romney winning by six.
Even “margin of error” doesn’t really explain that type of discrepancy.
Actually, this means Romney wins 54-46.
Hey Obama 46%<50% how are the other 8% going to vote?
“Actually, this means Romney wins 54-46.”
Maybe more like 52-48. The undecideds won’t break 100% for the challenger. At best, they’ll break 3:1. Most polls still suggest that Romney wins 51-48 (1% other). I’ll take it. Rasmussen stated on Hannity last week that it’s virtually impossible to lose the Electoral College if a candidate wins by more than 1% nationally.
Thank you for posting your firsthand experience.
Ipso facto?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.