Skip to comments.Ipsos/Reuters Daily Election Tracking: Obama 46% - Romney 46%
Posted on 11/03/2012 12:29:29 PM PDT by Arthurio
Washington, D.C. - Todays Reuters/Ipsos national voting data shows the candidates exactly even on 46%. Other findings include:
Over a quarter (27%) have already cast votes, which breaks down to 51% Obama vs. 44% Romney
Almost a third (31%) have been contacted on the phone or in person by one or both of the campaigns
The most important issues to voting are the economy and jobs, followed by healthcare, the deficit, and social issues. Independents especially prioritize economic issues like unemployment and the deficit
These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters from Oct. 29-Nov. 2, 2012. For the survey, a sample of 6,211 American registered voters and 5,114 Likely Voters (all age 18 and over) was interviewed online. On October 29th, Ipsos began boosting sample in four swing states, which accounts for the increase in our overall sample size. The data collected in these states are included in our national sample, although weighted appropriately to reflect the population of each state relative to the national population. The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.0 percentage points for Registered Voters and 3.4 for Likely Voters. Likely voter model adjusted to include all respondents who have voted, as of 10.15.12. For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.
(Excerpt) Read more at ipsos-na.com ...
We need the turnout model, otherwise this information is of marginal value.
But O still cannot crack 50% in the lefty-leaning al Rooters/Ipsos! That’s all that really matters.
Kiss him good-bye!
Like I have been saying for a while, Obama will get about 46-47 percent of the moocher vote, the rest will go to Romney..Romney will win 52-47
Isn’t it interesting that all the polls have it a ‘dead heat’?
Bammy at 46%. Best national poll in several days with the conventional wisdom that 2/3 break for the challenger.
Mixing registered with likely voters to give Obama some 'juice'.
These guys show Obama up in both Virginia and Florida, which should tell you something about the accuracy of the national number.
Any Presidential incumbent stuck at 46-47% is usually called an ex-President.
I was wondering what the trend was.
Suggests the small hurricane bump is fading. Should be completely gone by Tuesday.
Barry's toast. Finis. Stick a fork in him.
Yep. Was going to comment similarly.
Obama is in deep trouble. The race is basically a dead heat nationally, using a D+3-7 model.
But if the electorate is more in line with R+1 then Romney wins rather easily. Plus it is clear that the enthusiasm and drive is on the Romney side. The crowds are on fire.
I attended Romney’s NH Rally this morning. There had to be 3-4,000... for a (doors open at 630AM) early morning rally. McCain would pull in 500 or so.
Just looking at the event today, and his people, the planners, staff - this looks like a team that knows it’s going to win. It was impressive.
The media is propping up O like Bernie’s on the weekend.
Their national numbers are a joke. No one really believes O will get 50%. The MSM and the Left are living in the dream world they have carefully constructed for themselves.
It will all come crashing down on Tuesday, like a house of cards!
State polls are the only thing to count if one is even remotely interested in the polls. Any national poll that say surveys a ton of people in some democommie stronghold like Mass would surely favor the democommie.
I don’t care if Romney wins by one or 202, I just want him to win. In fact, the closer to even the better as that will send the deranged psychotic left over the edge. Know what a wild democommie whose side loses an election and begins rioting is called: a moving target.
About 35-38% of registered voters do not vote. This indicates that the likely voter is overstated by 20%. Based on history the likely voters in a sample of 6,211 would be about 3,900. Registered voter polls always seem to favor democrats.
“For the survey, a sample of 6,211 American registered voters and 5,114 Likely Voters (all age 18 and over) was interviewed online. “
shouldn’t it be “were interviewed online” and not “was interviewed online”??
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Yup. No one goes to campaign rallies to hear a loser.
I remember in my youth attending a campaign rally with my father for Walter Mondale in Long Beach, California at Long Beach Airport. He never showed up.
Don’t look at the polls - look at how the campaigns are doing. Romney is doing everything right, the momentum and the enthusiasm is on his side.
In contrast, despite media fawning, O can barely attract a decent-sized crowd. His own supporters are not that stupid. They know the political headwinds are against him.
People will be shocked on Tuesday and every one will be talking about this election for years to come!
I respectfully disagree.
At this point, the only polls worth looking at are the tracking polls.
The state polls that will be released between now and election day would have been conducted during the Sandy bounce. In other words, they are outdated before the are even published.
The trends in the tracking polls should tell us who has the momentum and who will win. Historically, it is the challenger who gains momentum heading into election day.
If that holds true this year, Obama is in big trouble, although it is still very close.
Yes, regardless of top line #, Obama cannot get above that infamous 47% in any poll. And at least this one shows, not major national shift to Obama here in the waning days.
Hey, I just noticed the pic. Is that my hero Daffy Duck?
Even tracking polls are garbage.
The data is bad because it rests on a bad assumption.
Namely, that this election is a rerun of 2008.
It won’t be. But the pollsters refuse to make adjustments for it. And Romney probably knows that in reality, he has a very comfortable lead. He can afford to take some risks.
O has run out of time.
And looking back to 2004 and 2008, the state polls were all over the place and often wildly off the final margins, whereas the national polls nailed it for the most part.
My sister attended Ryan’s in PA just a while ago—said it was packed...and she just made it in before they stopped letting people in. At a guess, she said 3000 thousand people.
The GOP is united I think in NH; it would be great to get Ovide in as Governor with control of the legislature. They could put right to work legislation in place as well as put several constitutional measures permanently outlawing broadbased taxes in front of the people.
Wow... I feel pretty good about Romney picking up PA!
The Mittmentum that the media paints as stalled, is gathering a head of steam all over the country!
Once again, the pollsters are saying that the D+4 turnout this year is due to republicans defecting to indies. Hence, Romney s winning the indy vote.
I disagree completely, but that is neither here nor there.
We could, indeed, be looking at a big Electoral College win.
Ovide was there. Most of the NH team - Chris Sununu, Guinta, Ayotte, etc.
I would like to see Ovide up more in the polls. But it appears he has a steady 2-3 point lead.
He’s been slammed in the TV ads, and really never fought back. Can’t believe that the communist Hassan is even making it a race. But I think the turnout is going to be all GOP and carry pretty much the entire team.
Right now Im hold up both hands with the middle finger on both hands at attention.
I’m with you. If you look at the early voting numbers, event attendances and polling re enthusiasm there is no way the pollsters assumptions re turnout come to fruition. Romney is winning. Period.
I think one of the stories that will be discussed after the election is that national pollsters don’t know how to conduct state polls.
Just this week two polls from Florida showed totally contradictory results. One had Obama winning by five, the other had Romney winning by six.
Even “margin of error” doesn’t really explain that type of discrepancy.
Actually, this means Romney wins 54-46.
Hey Obama 46%<50% how are the other 8% going to vote?
“Actually, this means Romney wins 54-46.”
Maybe more like 52-48. The undecideds won’t break 100% for the challenger. At best, they’ll break 3:1. Most polls still suggest that Romney wins 51-48 (1% other). I’ll take it. Rasmussen stated on Hannity last week that it’s virtually impossible to lose the Electoral College if a candidate wins by more than 1% nationally.
Thank you for posting your firsthand experience.
Subject is “sample” so “sample was.”
Wonder why this is not included in RCP’s average?
A FRIGGIN ONLINE POLL... SAUCED UP FOR JUST THE RIGHT MARXIST FLAVOR!!! BOGUS POLL ALERT!!!!!!! FROM THEIR SITE:
“These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters from Oct. 29-Nov. 2, 2012. For the survey, a sample of 6,211 American registered voters and 5,114 Likely Voters (all age 18 and over) WAS INTERVIEWED ONLINE. On October 29th, Ipsos began boosting sample in four swing states, which accounts for the increase in our overall sample size. The data collected in these states are included in our national sample, although weighted appropriately to reflect the population of each state relative to the national population. The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.0 percentage points for Registered Voters and 3.4 for Likely Voters. Likely voter model adjusted to include all respondents who have voted, as of 10.15.12. For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.
The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by gender, age, education, and ethnicity. Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of one per cent. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.
It was funny, because I brought my reluctant wife who is a soft Republican but not very political.
So we are walking out of the rally (it was at Pease Air Force Base with Romney’s plane parked right behind him) and my wife walks over to this area to see if she could see Romney walk out towards his plane.
And what do you know... It was part of the “rope line” and my wife got to shake Mitt and Ann Romney’s hands.
My wife said Mitt looked her straight in the eyes and thanked her “for taking time out of your day.” She could not believe the sincerity. It fired her up for the election now just like me.
Things work in strange ways. I converted my own wife. :)
That is Karl Rove's final prediction: 51-48 and at least 279 EV. In 2008 he gave "EV prediction: Obama 338, McCain 200." Final was 365 - 173; 52.7 - 45.6
Michael Barone's "Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223. That sounds high for Romney. But he could drop Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election. Fundamentals."
I don’t recall ever getting as many calls as I’ve had this year from pollsters. Maybe it’s due to my wife being a `free-thinker’ in years past or my misspent political youth and their records show we may be `polling gold’.
But once they pose the stock: “Do you believe that you’re better off now than 4 years ago ... “ query, and I start giving them an earful (e.g. Heeeeeellllll no!) the disappointment on the other end is tangible.
I spoke to a `Lateesha’ this morning; sorry darlin’ but you asked.
So I guess we’ll see, but I expect this Tuesday night when it’s looking a lot like deja-1980 all over again for the Dems, and then when the dust settles ... four years from now they’ll be pulling out the same: “9 out of 10 pollsters, who also happen to be TV medical doctors, using quasi-scientific methodology virtually untainted by partisan sampling bias, on odd-numbered days influenced by neap tides blah blah blah” happy crappy, Pappy.
I’m ready for this to be over so we can start riding Romney in the right direction. My one-time tag line, below, demonstrates my near crab-boat fatigue with the pols, their hired hands and the polls.
Anything by the sub-human, neo-Nazi, anti-semitic crew at Reuters is useless. These pricks are spawn from Goebbel’s propaganda ministry, and Israel has either arrested or banned their stringers from entering the country. They are persona non grata.
Useless twaddle, Reuter a-holes.
Whoever ran the Hassan pays no property tax ad deserves a pat on the back. It’s easy to drive up other peoples taxes as you live in tax exempt school property...what a bunch of BS...this really struck a cord with my relatives in Franklin, Tilton, Meredith & Laconia; people are angry about this one.
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