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In The Last Few Hours…Sudden Danger Signs In Polling
Dick Morris.com ^ | November 2,2012 | Dick Morris

Posted on 11/03/2012 9:36:38 AM PDT by Hojczyk

As Election Day approaches, we must be very sensitive to last minute changes in the polls. Remember that President George W. Bush fell from a 4 point lead into a tie over the last weekend in 2000 and Clinton rose from a tie to a 5 point win in the last weekend of 1992.

With that caution in mind, a danger signal comes from the latest Rasmussen Poll reflecting a two point gain for Obama. Whereas before the storm, Rasmussen showed Romney two ahead, he now has the race tied at 48-48.

That is troublesome.

It may be that Obama’s visit to New Jersey and the high profile (figurative) kisses bestowed on him by nominal Republican Mayor Bloomberg of New York and real Republican Chris Christie of New Jersey might have helped him.

Perhaps he is erasing the image of a nit-picking, petulant president deep into negative charges against his opponent and replacing it with the image of an executive handling a tough situation for our country.

This race is not over yet! And with a media determined to re-elect Obama, we may see the president’s recovery continue unless we step up our own efforts to thwart it.

We are still likely to win. The undecided vote always goes against the incumbent and all the polling suggests we will be more successful than they will be at turning out our vote. But, early warning signs must be headed.

Bottom line: WORK LIKE HELL!!!

(Excerpt) Read more at dickmorris.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; morris; toesucker
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1 posted on 11/03/2012 9:36:41 AM PDT by Hojczyk
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To: Hojczyk

There will be a new morris-ism out by this afternoon... with him tallying the new polling out today and finding his balls again. Steady people... we are winning.

LLS


2 posted on 11/03/2012 9:39:32 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer (OUR GOVERNMENT AND PRESS ARE NO LONGER TRUSTWORTHY OR DESERVING OF RESPECT!)
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To: Hojczyk

Dick Morris hedging his seven point prediction.

I won’t. Romney by seven.


3 posted on 11/03/2012 9:40:36 AM PDT by bolobaby
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To: Hojczyk

This is a reality. This positive PR for Obama at tax payers expense due to Sandy , abetted by the MSM, could wipe out much of O’s very bad last 2 weeks.


4 posted on 11/03/2012 9:41:11 AM PDT by Be Careful
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To: Hojczyk

Dick Morris doing some major backtracking.

He is correct though, the hurricane really really helped Obama and may tilt the presidency to him.

It completely changed the narrative of the race.

Besides it being a great disaster for so many people, it was a political disaster for us and for the future of the country.


5 posted on 11/03/2012 9:41:14 AM PDT by over3Owithabrain
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To: Hojczyk

Obama is back on the campaign trail, and he’s already stepped in it with his “revenge” remark, which Romney has converted into a brilliant ad. Another three days of the greatest orator giving speeches, and he’ll finish himself off.


6 posted on 11/03/2012 9:41:31 AM PDT by The Fop (Excuse me while I clean the saliva out of my racist dog whistle)
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To: Hojczyk

For those who are getting anxious over last minute shifts in the polls, just step away from the computer and tv and take a break.

If you want to make a difference, volunteer for the campaign. Or, simply read a book or something relaxing.

Momentum hasn’t drastically shifted to Obama just because Christie stood next to Obama for a photo op, and Rasmussen had a slight down tick.

Besides, if I’m wrong, what good is being miserable for the next 3 days?


7 posted on 11/03/2012 9:41:31 AM PDT by Shadow44
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To: Hojczyk

Obama is back on the campaign trail, and he’s already stepped in it with his “revenge” remark, which Romney has converted into a brilliant ad. Another three days of the greatest orator giving speeches, and he’ll finish himself off.


8 posted on 11/03/2012 9:41:35 AM PDT by The Fop (Excuse me while I clean the saliva out of my racist dog whistle)
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To: Hojczyk

Dick Morris doing some major backtracking.

He is correct though, the hurricane really really helped Obama and may tilt the presidency to him.

It completely changed the narrative of the race.

Besides it being a great disaster for so many people, it was a political disaster for us and for the future of the country.


9 posted on 11/03/2012 9:41:43 AM PDT by over3Owithabrain
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To: Hojczyk

Obama is back on the campaign trail, and he’s already stepped in it with his “revenge” remark, which Romney has converted into a brilliant ad. Another three days of the greatest orator giving speeches, and he’ll finish himself off.


10 posted on 11/03/2012 9:41:43 AM PDT by The Fop (Excuse me while I clean the saliva out of my racist dog whistle)
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To: Hojczyk

Obama is back on the campaign trail, and he’s already stepped in it with his “revenge” remark, which Romney has converted into a brilliant ad. Another three days of the greatest orator giving speeches, and he’ll finish himself off.


11 posted on 11/03/2012 9:41:48 AM PDT by The Fop (Excuse me while I clean the saliva out of my racist dog whistle)
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To: bolobaby
I'll chime in and reinforce my own prediction that dates back to mid-summer:

If Obama wins on Tuesday, he's going to demand a recount in every swing state. I've been saying for months that Mitt Romney is campaigning for a job that Barack Obama doesn't even want anymore.

12 posted on 11/03/2012 9:43:08 AM PDT by Alberta's Child ("If you touch my junk, I'm gonna have you arrested.")
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To: Hojczyk

Logic dictates Romney must win. All the indicators point in his favor.

And yet Obama maintains a tie/lead in the polls, even with the youth vote down from 67 to 52, the black vote down however much, the white vote for Obama down 43-37. How does that add up?


13 posted on 11/03/2012 9:43:36 AM PDT by Wyrd bið ful aræd
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To: over3Owithabrain
the hurricane did NOT help bamey...

this dickism was posted yesterday....and hashed over.....why do people bring such negativity to FR....

14 posted on 11/03/2012 9:44:10 AM PDT by cherry
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To: Hojczyk
Say Bye Bye to the community organizer.
Wednesday morning you will see. . . . . . .
15 posted on 11/03/2012 9:46:04 AM PDT by DeaconRed (Thanks To Colin & Opra I am voting for the White Boy: Hey they voted for the negro.)
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To: Hojczyk

Twitter #Obama #ABC #NBC #CBS What has Obama done after he visited his Katrina Where is the help

this is with in the 180 letter limit


16 posted on 11/03/2012 9:46:41 AM PDT by blueyon (The U. S. Constitution - read it and weep)
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To: bolobaby

Put another way, if the electorate see fit to reward Obama with another term, we are doomed. It will signal that there are too many ignorant and too many on the wagon...only to likely increase. This time when you say you may leave the country if the democrats get elected...maybe you should think seriously about it..unless you can live under socialism. It could signal the end of the republican party.


17 posted on 11/03/2012 9:47:03 AM PDT by sanjuanbob
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To: over3Owithabrain
Someone made the point that this was a fund raising appeal. So the message is somewhat mitigated. More to the point, I think the bleeding has stopped. I'm glad the election was not on Thursday of last week. With the PA & CO polling numbers, the fact that RAS held steady today & more & more the Sandy response looks like an ugly failure, I am growing more confident.
18 posted on 11/03/2012 9:47:43 AM PDT by outofstyle (Down All the Days)
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To: Alberta's Child

But why wouldn’t he want it? All he has to do in this “job” is make sure someone is taking care of getting Mooch and her entourage to fabulous vacation spots.

He has no accountability for deserting our embassies, alienating our allies and leaving the elite of our DOD to die obscure deaths.

And play golf.


19 posted on 11/03/2012 9:50:04 AM PDT by stanne
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To: cherry

Agreed. In fact, the lead pre- and post-Sandy polls might have moved from 1.6 to 0.8 (based on the internals provided by some subscribing Freepers). Rounded, that looks like a 2 point lead down to tied. This was a very small and likely short-lived Sandy/Christie bounce, and look for it to fade as Wednesday and Thursday are dropped from the 3-day roll. Today’s Ras poll showed stability from yesterday, in fact. And the swing state polls over the past 48 hours still show Romney in a good place (admittedly close in a few of them), and poised to win. Maybe I’m being too optimistic, but I’m more encouraged by the immense crowds R&R are drawing in the key states and the manner by which Romney is campaigning.


20 posted on 11/03/2012 9:50:52 AM PDT by BlueStateRightist
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To: Be Careful

The aftermath of Sandy has been a DISASTER; OFF TO VEGAS HE GOES AGAIN!! One visit to Drudgereport.com is the best campaign ad Romney ever had. Drudge gets 52 MILLION page views PER DAY.


21 posted on 11/03/2012 9:50:59 AM PDT by Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
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To: Be Careful

Have you seen the reporting on Sandy? Some is rah rah but the truth is coming out. Have you seen the remarks of this affected. This is killing obama with most Americans and it points out another area in which he is unqualified and unprepared.

LLS


22 posted on 11/03/2012 9:51:24 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer (OUR GOVERNMENT AND PRESS ARE NO LONGER TRUSTWORTHY OR DESERVING OF RESPECT!)
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To: cherry

Dick, Dick, Dick...tsk tsk

Just when I started believing you had a backbone, you start sucking toes again.

All this is is Mr. Morris going limp on us. He is using a tied Rasmussen poll and the Hurricane to set up the excuse if his landslide prediction falls short. It’s a pussy move. Now he can say, ‘no one could have seen this coming, it has never happened in an election like this before’.

I’m sorry, Sandy doesn’t mean a hill of fcking beans to Ohio, Wi, MI, and all the other swing states. This narrative is one of the biggest, most desperate, hail mary passes I’ve seen in the entire campaign season. It’s just a shame that we have people supposedly on OUR side standing in the crowded endzone willing to catch the pass.


23 posted on 11/03/2012 9:52:04 AM PDT by BuckeyeGOP
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To: The Fop
"he’s already stepped in it with his “revenge” remark"

I just watched a bit of him live on MSLSD from Mentor High School. He just said that in 4 days we had an important decision to make. Hopefully the Dems follow his advice and come out in droves this Wednesday and vote till their little hearts are content.

BTW, this high school is the same one that McCain visited in the last days of the 2008 campaign while BHO was in front of 80,000 in Cleveland. The thrill is gone as 2012 0bama = 2008 McCain.

24 posted on 11/03/2012 9:52:33 AM PDT by Nasher (Mitt Romney just took Obama for a cross country drive strapped to the roof of his car.)
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To: DeaconRed
If the news gets out about Sandy it will not help OBAMA...Pennsylvania may save the nation.. Salena Zito has it leaning to Mittens...Obama has to match his 2008 numbers to win any less it may be over..Dick is trying to prevent the GOP from not turning out..with the easy win for Mittens all around
25 posted on 11/03/2012 9:53:07 AM PDT by Hojczyk
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To: Hojczyk

With the electric still out in the east will the election be delayed?


26 posted on 11/03/2012 9:54:24 AM PDT by Beowulf9
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To: Hojczyk

This election was never going to be the blowout Morris was suggesting. The demographics of the country make the impossible.

I have been expecting a close Romney win for months now, and while Obama has indeed gained ground in the past week, I still think Romney takes it by the narrowest of margins.


27 posted on 11/03/2012 9:54:49 AM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: Be Careful

A quick photo op and no results is hardly the stuff of game changing unless people see this as tilting the scales versus 4 years of failure and despair

Stop hanging on every nugget of info and cruising sites who feed this, they are merely building hit counts to drive revenue for themselves.

Voting is the real test, and I believe personally if we as a Nation are so shallow as to forget the past and see this crumb of effort as acceptable then we are already done as a country.


28 posted on 11/03/2012 9:55:16 AM PDT by 100American (Knowledge is knowing how, Wisdom is knowing when)
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To: Hojczyk

I voted early today at the Registrars office. I bet most people in there this morning were conservative (and this is in San Jose!). I heard a lady behind me say to the poll worker, “What?? You don’t need my ID?”, “No, we don’t need it” “Well, you should!”, “Don’t worry about it...”, “Well I AM worried about it!!”.


29 posted on 11/03/2012 9:56:31 AM PDT by shorty_harris
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To: cherry
I agree with you that there was no "Sandy" bounce for Obama. How could there possibly be? Obama didn't do anything except show up for a few photo-ops and bail. As Mark Steyn pointed out in his article yesterday, it is the decrepit state of our infrastructure (electric grid, drainage systems) that magnified the impact of this storm. Otherwise, it would have only severely impacted the coastline of a small portion of CT/NY/NJ and everybody else would have dealt with it as a wind-driven rainstorm and everything would have been back to normal in those places the next day.
30 posted on 11/03/2012 9:57:53 AM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: Hojczyk

I thought I had read this yesterday, so I went to the site and looked...it’s not from today.

In The Last Few Hours…Sudden Danger Signs In Polling
By Dick Morris on November 2, 2012

I think Morris then changed his tune again on the O’Reilly show last night. He’s a bit of a drama queen, it seems.


31 posted on 11/03/2012 9:59:07 AM PDT by memyselfandi59
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To: Wyrd bið ful aræd

Conservatives still retain much too much confidence in the “basic decency” of the American people. This is becoming a different country and unfortunately that reality hasn’t quite caught up with us. Hewitt says, “My confidence in Romney is actually my confidence in the country.”

Well all I can say is: I wish I had that confidence.


32 posted on 11/03/2012 9:59:28 AM PDT by NKStarr
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To: Hojczyk

There is nothing we can do but vote and get those closest to us to vote. I thought I had convinced ten Hispanic, Democrat voters to vote for Mitt. I found out yesterday they voted early straight ticket Democrat because they didn’t know how to split the ticket.

Spanish TV, non-cable, is going insane with the non-stop push for Obama. Patriotic music, beautiful American flag in the background, words like Immigrants, education, military service, homes, medical care, all being emphasized. I don’t speak Spanish but I know the gist is “get yours.”


33 posted on 11/03/2012 10:00:51 AM PDT by FryingPan101 (2016 looms)
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To: over3Owithabrain
Hurricane helped Obama? Hardly!

With the level noise rising daily in New Jersey and Trenton, and Zero flying off to Las Vegas, its looking bleak for this creature.

I still see Zero getting trounced. Momentum to Romney continues to build in Wisconsin for Romney.

34 posted on 11/03/2012 10:01:43 AM PDT by Northern Yankee (Where Liberty dwells, there is my Country. - Benjamin Franklin)
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To: bolobaby
I hear ya !

             300 ^

35 posted on 11/03/2012 10:01:51 AM PDT by tomkat
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To: Hojczyk
The Christie/Bammy post-Sandy lovefeast and photo-op will backfire on Prince 0.

Sure, he flew in. Gave hugs. Looked concerned. And flew out.

But the mess was just beginning. And now everybody can see what a debacle this is, and that it's really no better than Bush with Katrina.

Plus, that Situation Room photo was a disaster in itself. Makes everyone with half a brain wonder why he was AWOL, or worse, with Benghazi.

36 posted on 11/03/2012 10:04:37 AM PDT by mojito (Zero, our Nero.)
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To: memyselfandi59

well yeah....he makes money by having you pay attention and listen to him!


37 posted on 11/03/2012 10:04:39 AM PDT by Reily (l)
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To: Reily
well yeah....he makes money by having you pay attention and listen to him!

Well, toes don't grow on trees, y'know.

38 posted on 11/03/2012 10:05:27 AM PDT by dfwgator
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To: Beowulf9

ny state law allows for 3 xtra days in case of emergenies.


39 posted on 11/03/2012 10:07:25 AM PDT by DownInFlames (NNs)
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To: FryingPan101

This ‘early voting’ CRAP has got to stop. More time for voting means more time to orchestrate and execute fraud. And those U.N. observers are probably bringing pallets of pre-filled ballots with them.


40 posted on 11/03/2012 10:08:10 AM PDT by Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
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To: LibLieSlayer

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Click the button for the previous dates and see how polls are showing Romney headed down hill.


41 posted on 11/03/2012 10:19:11 AM PDT by bgill (Evil doers are in every corner of our government. Have we passed the point of no return?)
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To: Hojczyk

Just remember that the Washington Post yesterday predicted that 13% of those who voted for Obama in 2008 are going to defect this time. Even taking into account new voting constituencies, it should give Romney the margin he needs to win.


42 posted on 11/03/2012 10:19:47 AM PDT by RedMominBlueState
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To: Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America

May not mean anything but a unofficial study I have done on bumper stickers....I have seen in the last month 43 Romney\Ryan and countless yard signs but only 1 Obama\Biden sticker and no yard signs...I think Morris is being a little dramatic at the moment as the Obama “revenge’ comments do not sell well and many in NY and NJ are very unhappy with the Federal Gov response....


43 posted on 11/03/2012 10:19:47 AM PDT by dpetty121263
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To: FryingPan101

To me just another wing of the leftist media.


44 posted on 11/03/2012 10:20:34 AM PDT by ctpsb (Thanks.)
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To: bolobaby

I strongly disagree with your wild prediction. I expect Romney to win by only six. If I am wrong, I will shave my beard of four weeks.


45 posted on 11/03/2012 10:22:42 AM PDT by Thane_Banquo (Support hate crime laws: Because some victims are more equal than others.)
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To: Hojczyk

Bwahahahaha, Morris covering all the bases. The man can never be wrong, when he covers every possible outcome.


46 posted on 11/03/2012 10:23:57 AM PDT by Double Tap
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                           sheeeez people .. stand up !

47 posted on 11/03/2012 10:24:09 AM PDT by tomkat
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To: LibLieSlayer

A couple thoughts:

1) Dick Morris seems like he is always wrong about predictions so I’m not really concerned about what he thinks will happen.

2) How have the polling firms that continued to poll adjusted their methodology to compensate for heavy Democrat urban northeast voters being unreachable by phone for polls? Honestly, I wouldn’t put much faith into polls the last few days. I bet a number of these pollsters have used their “judgment” to weight Democrat responses more to “make up” for Northeast urban Democrats who would have answered before.

3) Let’s work like we’re behind and hope we’re ahead. If we win, great. If we lose, then it is what it is. Either way, press on.


48 posted on 11/03/2012 10:24:32 AM PDT by daniel885
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To: Hojczyk

Well Today Morris is seeing the disaster that is the Metro NY/NJ area and how Obama is acting and is saying he blew the advantage he got earlier in the week.

http://www.dickmorris.com/obama-hit-by-storm-backlash/

“Now Obama is making the same mistake. By campaigning, particularly by using the same harsh partisan rhetoric which has characterized his campaign, Obama is dragging down his ratings and with it his chances of victory.

Particularly when we see the juxtaposition of the mounting disaster in New York and New Jersey and the President out on the campaign trail attacking his opponents, we realize that Obama is a candidate before he is president, more worried about his second term than the welfare of his constituents.

In yesterday’s polling numbers, I saw a rise in Obama’s ratings and warned that the race was far from over. Now, we see him throwing it all away and resuming his crash into a single term presidency.”


49 posted on 11/03/2012 10:24:45 AM PDT by Leto
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To: LibLieSlayer

Lol you called it!

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2954338/posts

Obama Hit By Storm Backlash


50 posted on 11/03/2012 10:26:09 AM PDT by Nickname
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