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America's premiere political guru predicts Romney to win comfortably
American Thinker ^ | 11/03/2012 | Rick Moran

Posted on 11/03/2012 7:53:13 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

No one doubts Michael Barone's credentials; the guy has established himself as the pre-eminent political nuts and bolts expert in the country.

If you watch Barone on election night, you will realize he knows the politics of America down to the key individual counties in each state. His encyclopedic mind recognizes when a state's vote is trending toward one candidate or another early on, and while he is carefully not to predict a winner, he leaves the viewer with little doubt as to who is in trouble and who isn't.

But it makes me wonder when he reels off a prediction like this:

*****

Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That's bad news for Barack Obama. True, Americans want to think well of their presidents and many think it would be bad if Americans were perceived as rejecting the first black president.

But it's also true that most voters oppose Obama's major policies and consider unsatisfactory the very sluggish economic recovery -- Friday's jobs report showed an unemployment uptick.

Also, both national and target state polls show that independents, voters who don't identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans, break for Romney.

That might not matter if Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 39 to 32 percent, as they did in the 2008 exit poll. But just about every indicator suggests that Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting -- and about their candidate -- than they were in 2008, and Democrats are less so.

That's been apparent in early or absentee voting, in which Democrats trail their 2008 numbers in target states Virginia, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada.

(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Front Page News; Politics/Elections; US: Colorado; US: Florida; US: Indiana; US: Iowa; US: New Hampshire; US: North Carolina; US: Ohio; US: Pennsylvania; US: Virginia; US: Wisconsin
KEYWORDS: 2012predictions; 2012swingstates; barone; colorado; elections; florida; indiana; iowa; michaelbarone; newhampshire; northcarolina; ohio; pennsylvania; romney; virginia; wisconsin
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Barone goes on to pick IN, NC, OH, FL, VA, CO, IA, NH, PA, and WI for Romney.
1 posted on 11/03/2012 7:53:20 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

If Barone is right, then it’s a landslide and my faith in the American people is not only renewed but bolstered.


2 posted on 11/03/2012 7:57:38 AM PDT by Crucial (Tolerance at the expense of equal treatment is the path to tyranny.)
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To: SeekAndFind

In 2008, my heart was broken.

It was broken due to the 98% of Black Americans who voted for this fraud due to the color of his skin.

It was broken by the vast number of Jewish people who voted for him because he was a democrat.

It was broken by the large number of Catholics who voted for him for the simple reason that their daddy would never vote for a republican.

It was broken because of the large number of Evangelicals who voted for him out of “White Guilt”.

And it was broken by the RNC, who ran the worst possible candidate against him.

The last four years have been the absolute worst years of my life, and it is ALL traceable to Obama.

Seeing a change in the American people, and even seeing a change in Mr. Romney, has given me hope again.


3 posted on 11/03/2012 8:07:37 AM PDT by left that other site (Worry is the Darkroom that Develops Negatives.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Does Barone take into account a much higher incidence of vote fraud than ever before? In previous elections the Democrat vote fraud numbers were probably pretty close to constant. It will be much higher this time. Vote switching by touch screen machines has already been reported from at least 6 states. The switching is all one way, R to D.


4 posted on 11/03/2012 8:08:39 AM PDT by arthurus (Read Hazlitt's Economics In One Lesson ONLINE www.fee.org/library/books/economics-in-one-lesson)
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To: SeekAndFind
No.

Won't happen.

He may win narrowly.

He may win handily.

He may win landslidally.

But it won't be "comfortable".

Will we see riots? Blaming the hurricane? Blaming Rush Limbaugh? Blaming racism?

Probably all of the above.

Fasten your seat belts.

5 posted on 11/03/2012 8:08:42 AM PDT by Izzy Dunne (Hello, I'm a TAGLINE virus. Please help me spread by copying me into YOUR tag line.)
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To: Izzy Dunne

I have a feeling it will be at least a week before everything is sorted out.


6 posted on 11/03/2012 8:09:49 AM PDT by dfwgator
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To: SeekAndFind

What did Barone predict about 2000?


7 posted on 11/03/2012 8:09:54 AM PDT by Jake8898
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To: SeekAndFind

This can’t be. I just heard ABC radio new’s Ann Compton practically having an orgasm explaining that Obama’s Forward slogan now sports a trailing exclamation point.


8 posted on 11/03/2012 8:11:03 AM PDT by SpaceBar
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To: Jake8898

He wasn’t born yet.


9 posted on 11/03/2012 8:12:52 AM PDT by Usagi_yo
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To: SeekAndFind
This really is a big step....he has nothing to gain by going out on a limb and being wrong and everything to lose. He's not that much of a partisan because I recall being upset at him in the past because he went against my personal feelings.Am I wrong about this?
10 posted on 11/03/2012 8:13:43 AM PDT by ontap
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To: left that other site

American Blacks who back Obama will be adrift at sea for many years to come!!! Poor souls....they have no idea how badly Obama is going to beaten by the American people!!! Old saying: You can lead a horse to water...but, you cannot make him or her drink!!! Obama has thrown them under the bus, and....they don’t know it!!! Now....they throw themselves under the bus by their own hand and votes for this failed POTUS Obama. Go figure!!!


11 posted on 11/03/2012 8:20:01 AM PDT by JLAGRAYFOX ( My only objective is to defeat and destroy Obama & his Democrat Party, politically!!!)
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To: SeekAndFind

Thank You Very Much for posting this Seekandfind...I was waiting for someone to finally post this, was doing a search as we speak and was going to post it myself if it was still not posted...so THANK YOU

Michael Barone is someone that can and should be taken VERY seriously! He is a VERY SERIOUS person!

I found myself feeling discouraged until I read this yesterday on Drudge.

AMEN


12 posted on 11/03/2012 8:23:10 AM PDT by Friendofgeorge (ASARAH PALIN 2012 OR BUST)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Thanks SeekAndFind. Michael Barone:
Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That's bad news for Barack Obama... most voters oppose Obama's major policies and consider unsatisfactory the very sluggish economic recovery -- Friday's jobs report showed an unemployment uptick... independents, voters who don't identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans, break for Romney... Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting -- and about their candidate -- than they were in 2008... Democrats trail their 2008 numbers in target states Virginia, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada.

13 posted on 11/03/2012 8:25:58 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: ontap

Michael Barone, author of Almanac OF AMERICAN POLITICS, updated yearly, is one of the most serious people in America. He is a guy that can be trusted to remove his political cap and tell it like it is...

If Barone says something, take it VERY seriously, he knows the leaning of every community in every state, he is a extraordinary fellow

I love the guy, was feeling discouraged until I read his piece yesterday


14 posted on 11/03/2012 8:27:44 AM PDT by Friendofgeorge (ASARAH PALIN 2012 OR BUST)
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To: SeekAndFind; Jeff Head; TEXOKIE; The Grim Freeper; TheForceOfOne; the-gooroo; ThePythonicCow; ...
The liberal fraud machine is going full tilt and needs to be watched. I'm following this guy on a face book thread where FReeper Jeff Head is involved in tracking him down and reporting his claims. His name is Jim Turner - a liberal college professor. I don't know how to track through his facebook page to find all his posts about his vote fraud activities, but it's explained on the thread by Daniel Holmes, a GREAT AMERICAN. His instructions say to use a "share" button. But, I don't see one. Maybe because I'm not in the club.


15 posted on 11/03/2012 8:27:51 AM PDT by Baynative
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To: SeekAndFind; Jeff Head; TEXOKIE; The Grim Freeper; TheForceOfOne; the-gooroo; ThePythonicCow; ...

He might not be a professor - it looks like he only studied there.


16 posted on 11/03/2012 8:30:51 AM PDT by Baynative
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To: Crucial

November 1, 2012

Don’t Get Swept up in O(mob)ama Mentality: Surviving the Romney Riots

by CTD Suzanne

Be it conspiracy theory or not, there is Internet chatter about planned riots after the election if President Obama does not win. Historically, riots have occurred during time of intense political strife, racial tension, and harsh economic conditions. In the coming days and weeks, the time is ripe for people to be angry and frustrated following the outcome of the election. Regardless of your political affiliation, everyone thinks the other candidate is going to destroy America; whether through taking away our rights or taking away our money, neither one will we tolerate. Though there is no way to predict exactly when and where civil unrest will happen, it is best to prepare just in case violent rioting breaks out in your city.

http://cdn2.cheaperthandirt.com/blog/?p=30327&utm_source=EmailDirect.com&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=20121103-Chronicle-Vol1Iss13+Campaign


17 posted on 11/03/2012 8:35:05 AM PDT by KeyLargo
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To: Baynative

Barone is pretty balanced in his analysis. I have disagreed with him many times, but he is usually right.

He went through this on Hannity Friday on air. Not only state by state, but he explained within every state and certain key precints, local issues, etc which led him to his prediction. Frankly, I was amazed at his knowledge at the state level.

Another thing to consider... a vast majority of the media that is closely covering the election have inside information. The reporters who travel with the candidates have info leaked off the record every day. They have a pretty good sense of what the campaigns know. Barone is very connected and probably has some inside information, which is making him more confident.

Rove, Morris, Barone and others are now predicting a Romney win. None of them predicted a McCain win in 2008.


18 posted on 11/03/2012 8:35:50 AM PDT by gswilder
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To: SpaceBar

Ann needs to catch up. They added that several days ago.


19 posted on 11/03/2012 8:39:02 AM PDT by John W (Viva Cristo Rey!)
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To: left that other site

Well said.


20 posted on 11/03/2012 8:39:56 AM PDT by ConservativeMind ("Humane" = "Don't pen up pets or eat meat, but allow infanticide, abortion, and euthanasia.")
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To: Baynative
For those who care to follow up on the post above:

Attorney General's Office in North Carolina CONTACT


Contact NCDOJ www.ncdoj.gov

21 posted on 11/03/2012 8:44:28 AM PDT by Baynative
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To: JLAGRAYFOX

Yes. You are right about that.


22 posted on 11/03/2012 8:44:33 AM PDT by left that other site (Worry is the Darkroom that Develops Negatives.)
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To: ConservativeMind

Thank You.

:-)


23 posted on 11/03/2012 8:49:26 AM PDT by left that other site (Worry is the Darkroom that Develops Negatives.)
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To: Baynative

I sent the image(s) to some friends of mine in NC to see if they can stir the muck a bit ;-)


24 posted on 11/03/2012 8:53:17 AM PDT by rockrr (Everything is different now...)
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To: SeekAndFind

Ohio Touch Screen Changes Romney Votes into Obama Votes

Ohio is one of the most hotly contested states in the nation for this year’s presidential election. Every vote matters, and every vote that gets changed by acts of fraud or computer glitch is a reason for concern. Just look at what’s happening at one Ohio voting location.

As reported by the Marion Star, voting problems sprung up with the touch screen voting machines. When Mitt Romney was selected, Barack Obama was highlighted instead.

Joan Stevens was one of several early voters at the polls on Monday. But when Stevens tried to cast her ballot for president, she noticed a problem.

Upon selecting “Mitt Romney” on the electronic touch screen, Barack Obama’s name lit up.

It took Stevens three tries before her selection was accurately recorded.

“You want to vote for who you want to vote for, and when you can’t it’s irritating,” Stevens said.

http://illinoisteaparty.net/2012/11/02/ohio-and-illinois-touch-screen-changes-romney-votes-into-obama-votes/


25 posted on 11/03/2012 8:59:43 AM PDT by KeyLargo
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To: Izzy Dunne

Everyone I know who mentions “riots if 0 loses” follows it up with “Bring it!”


26 posted on 11/03/2012 9:05:09 AM PDT by Jane Long (Soli Deo Gloria!)
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To: JLAGRAYFOX

“Obama has thrown them under the bus, and....they don’t know it!!!”

I think they do know it, and airing that unambitious young black boy fearing that he will be turned out to pick crops is proof that Obama and his media seem to know they are losing their stranglehold on the hearts & minds of black America. I work with many blacks who voted for Obama that are very unhappy.


27 posted on 11/03/2012 9:06:20 AM PDT by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic war against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: Jane Long

There will be no riots if Obama loses; urban blacks have been safely quarantined, and the rest of the country would be content to let them just kill each other on the welfare reservations. It is already happening, and the rest of America already doesn’t care.


28 posted on 11/03/2012 9:09:43 AM PDT by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic war against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: Baynative
If this “professor” thinks voter fraud is saving democracy then he needs a new Job
29 posted on 11/03/2012 9:12:05 AM PDT by RedMonqey (Men who will not suffer to self govern, will suffer under the governance of lesser men.)
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To: SpaceBar

Full Monty on the Marxism!!

Comrade! You have nothing to lose but your chains!!


30 posted on 11/03/2012 9:23:13 AM PDT by ecomcon
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To: left that other site

I think blaming the RNC.for McCain is a bit of a dodge. He won the primary and caucus system. GOP primary voters, and a few Dems crossing over, gave him the delegates he needed to win.

Despite some disagreement with the system I saw no movement on FR too stay involved and fix it. Essentially the GOP belongs to conservative Americans. FR should take the lead in fixing the RNC if its broken. Frankly the Ron Paul voters are the only ones who seemed to.get this ac/dc invest in the process in off years.


31 posted on 11/03/2012 9:28:46 AM PDT by Jack Black ( Whatever is left of American patriotism is now identical with counter-revolution.)
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To: left that other site

I think blaming the RNC.for McCain is a bit of a dodge. He won the primary and caucus system. GOP primary voters, and a few Dems crossing over, gave him the delegates he needed to win.

Despite some disagreement with the system I saw no movement on FR too stay involved and fix it. Essentially the GOP belongs to conservative Americans. FR should take the lead in fixing the RNC if its broken. Frankly the Ron Paul voters are the only ones who seemed to.get this ac/dc invest in the process in off years.


32 posted on 11/03/2012 9:29:06 AM PDT by Jack Black ( Whatever is left of American patriotism is now identical with counter-revolution.)
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To: left that other site

I think blaming the RNC.for McCain is a bit of a dodge. He won the primary and caucus system. GOP primary voters, and a few Dems crossing over, gave him the delegates he needed to win.

Despite some disagreement with the system I saw no movement on FR too stay involved and fix it. Essentially the GOP belongs to conservative Americans. FR should take the lead in fixing the RNC if its broken. Frankly the Ron Paul voters are the only ones who seemed to.get this ac/dc invest in the process in off years.


33 posted on 11/03/2012 9:29:24 AM PDT by Jack Black ( Whatever is left of American patriotism is now identical with counter-revolution.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Strong, intelligent black conservatives like Herman Cain, Allen West and Mia Love are hated by liberals because Cain, West and Love make liberal arguments irrelevant.


34 posted on 11/03/2012 9:40:00 AM PDT by tlp2001 (Capitalism is based on human strength, communism is based on human weakness)
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To: left that other site

Any one with a D would have won in 2008. People got tired of 8 years of Republican rule and wanted a change.

But this Administration is even worse than Jimmy Carter’s and the country can’t take four more years of it.

Ours is famously a nation of “firsts.” In 2008, we elected our first black President. This year the first Mormon will be elected President.


35 posted on 11/03/2012 9:47:11 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: ontap

Barone is the ultimate political prognosticator. He litterally wrote the book that all the other guys read. And her re-writes it every two years. That book is called The Almanac of American Politics. Every other pundit,.news and polling organization depends on his deep knowledge.

He speaks softly and carries a big stick. He is definately a conservative, as evidenced by his occasional columns on topics other than elections in US News and World Report.

He is the ultimate “decision desk” resource, because he knows all the districts history and demographics.

Unlike many pundits he often doesn’t make predictions. My theory iscat he is off-put by Nate Silver.


36 posted on 11/03/2012 9:47:21 AM PDT by Jack Black ( Whatever is left of American patriotism is now identical with counter-revolution.)
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To: ontap

Barone is the ultimate political prognosticator. He litterally wrote the book that all the other guys read. And her re-writes it every two years. That book is called The Almanac of American Politics. Every other pundit,.news and polling organization depends on his deep knowledge.

He speaks softly and carries a big stick. He is definately a conservative, as evidenced by his occasional columns on topics other than elections in US News and World Report.

He is the ultimate “decision desk” resource, because he knows all the districts history and demographics.

Unlike many pundits he often doesn’t make predictions. My theory iscat he is off-put by Nate Silver.


37 posted on 11/03/2012 9:47:36 AM PDT by Jack Black ( Whatever is left of American patriotism is now identical with counter-revolution.)
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To: SeekAndFind
Today, in a REPUBLICAN AREA, the lines were around the building 3 times...

I already voted, R all the way down...

38 posted on 11/03/2012 9:49:38 AM PDT by ExCTCitizen (Yes, Obama, I had help with my business. MY CUSTOMERS!)
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To: SeekAndFind

I just think today with changes in technology, it’s very difficult to get an accurate poll, I think polls are going to be very inaccurate from now on, to the point where they will become useless.


39 posted on 11/03/2012 9:50:11 AM PDT by dfwgator
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To: SpaceBar

Ann Compton has been having Obama orgasms ever since he came on the scene and she joined the rest of the MSM having “collective” orgasms.


40 posted on 11/03/2012 9:51:33 AM PDT by Jukeman (God help us for we are deep in trouble.)
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To: Baynative; SeekAndFind; Jeff Head; TEXOKIE; The Grim Freeper; TheForceOfOne; the-gooroo; ...

I posted about this North Carolina fraud loophole the other day. That’s probably what this guy is using. They have same-day registration and voting. And they say 1000s of the people that did it in 2008 signed up with fake addresses. Nevertheless those votes were counted because that is not found out until after the vote is certified.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2952104/posts


41 posted on 11/03/2012 10:00:57 AM PDT by JediJones (Vote NO on Proposition Zero! Tuesday, November 6th!)
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To: gswilder

Krauthammer on O’Reilly last night predicted an extremely close Romney win, within .5% popular vote and a handful of EVs.


42 posted on 11/03/2012 10:02:45 AM PDT by JediJones (Vote NO on Proposition Zero! Tuesday, November 6th!)
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To: arthurus

You apparently have to depress the Romney button in an exact place that will not activate the default Obama vote on some of these machines. The RNC is already on the cases of these hypersensitive voting machines acting irregularly so I can’t imagine Romney conceding on that basis. It’ll be a long and drawn out nightmare instead.


43 posted on 11/03/2012 11:19:47 AM PDT by erlayman
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To: Izzy Dunne
"Will we see riots?"

If Zero wins then yes. His legions will be emboldened. If Romney wins then no. Zero will be cast aside by blacks as a mulatto.


44 posted on 11/03/2012 11:36:13 AM PDT by I see my hands (They should have prepared.)
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To: I see my hands

What I’m hearing from my liberal friends is fear that Romney will steal the rightful election win from Obama. I won’t be surprised at all if an Obama loss results in rioting.

If that happens, it won’t be far from where I live.


45 posted on 11/03/2012 11:56:04 AM PDT by Loud Mime (arguetheconstitution.com)
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To: arthurus

I am hopeful that because of all the publicity regarding voter fraud that it may be more difficult to carry it off. Here in Iowa we now have a Republican SOS and he has said he will prosecute any poll watchers not authorized to watch. In other words, no UN poll watchers in Iowa.


46 posted on 11/03/2012 1:01:21 PM PDT by Conservativegreatgrandma
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To: Conservativegreatgrandma

“I am hopeful that because of all the publicity regarding voter fraud that it may be more difficult to carry it off. Here in Iowa we now have a Republican SOS and he has said he will proseute any poll watchers not authorized to watch. In other words, no UN poll watchers in Iowa.

So if the actual programming code INSIDE the machines is being created some place in Texas for a lot of the swing states’ machines, and sent to them, whenever - how does your SOS discover that the code in the machine sees a R vote and makes it an 0 vote - but OOPS forgets to make it still LOOK like the vote is for the ORIGINAL R vote ?!?


47 posted on 11/03/2012 2:16:31 PM PDT by PraiseTheLord
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To: JediJones

Thanks for the ping!


48 posted on 11/03/2012 5:48:58 PM PDT by TEXOKIE (Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he could do only a little. EdmondBurke)
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To: Jake8898
I have looked but can't find an answer (by skimming old columns of his):

http://www.jewishworldreview.com/michael/barone.archives.asp

49 posted on 11/03/2012 8:09:31 PM PDT by PghBaldy
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To: goldstategop

I got an anti-Morman Facebook post in my inbox this week, tying Romney to Joseph Smith, founder of Mormon faith, quoting Romney lauding Joseph Smith, then poster had a photo with negative slurs against JS. It was sick.


50 posted on 11/03/2012 8:23:54 PM PDT by Ciexyz
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