Skip to comments.America's premiere political guru predicts Romney to win comfortably
Posted on 11/03/2012 7:53:13 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
No one doubts Michael Barone's credentials; the guy has established himself as the pre-eminent political nuts and bolts expert in the country.
If you watch Barone on election night, you will realize he knows the politics of America down to the key individual counties in each state. His encyclopedic mind recognizes when a state's vote is trending toward one candidate or another early on, and while he is carefully not to predict a winner, he leaves the viewer with little doubt as to who is in trouble and who isn't.
But it makes me wonder when he reels off a prediction like this:
Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That's bad news for Barack Obama. True, Americans want to think well of their presidents and many think it would be bad if Americans were perceived as rejecting the first black president.
But it's also true that most voters oppose Obama's major policies and consider unsatisfactory the very sluggish economic recovery -- Friday's jobs report showed an unemployment uptick.
Also, both national and target state polls show that independents, voters who don't identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans, break for Romney.
That might not matter if Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 39 to 32 percent, as they did in the 2008 exit poll. But just about every indicator suggests that Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting -- and about their candidate -- than they were in 2008, and Democrats are less so.
That's been apparent in early or absentee voting, in which Democrats trail their 2008 numbers in target states Virginia, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
If Barone is right, then it’s a landslide and my faith in the American people is not only renewed but bolstered.
In 2008, my heart was broken.
It was broken due to the 98% of Black Americans who voted for this fraud due to the color of his skin.
It was broken by the vast number of Jewish people who voted for him because he was a democrat.
It was broken by the large number of Catholics who voted for him for the simple reason that their daddy would never vote for a republican.
It was broken because of the large number of Evangelicals who voted for him out of “White Guilt”.
And it was broken by the RNC, who ran the worst possible candidate against him.
The last four years have been the absolute worst years of my life, and it is ALL traceable to Obama.
Seeing a change in the American people, and even seeing a change in Mr. Romney, has given me hope again.
Does Barone take into account a much higher incidence of vote fraud than ever before? In previous elections the Democrat vote fraud numbers were probably pretty close to constant. It will be much higher this time. Vote switching by touch screen machines has already been reported from at least 6 states. The switching is all one way, R to D.
He may win narrowly.
He may win handily.
He may win landslidally.
But it won't be "comfortable".
Will we see riots? Blaming the hurricane? Blaming Rush Limbaugh? Blaming racism?
Probably all of the above.
Fasten your seat belts.
I have a feeling it will be at least a week before everything is sorted out.
What did Barone predict about 2000?
This can’t be. I just heard ABC radio new’s Ann Compton practically having an orgasm explaining that Obama’s Forward slogan now sports a trailing exclamation point.
He wasn’t born yet.
American Blacks who back Obama will be adrift at sea for many years to come!!! Poor souls....they have no idea how badly Obama is going to beaten by the American people!!! Old saying: You can lead a horse to water...but, you cannot make him or her drink!!! Obama has thrown them under the bus, and....they don’t know it!!! Now....they throw themselves under the bus by their own hand and votes for this failed POTUS Obama. Go figure!!!
Thank You Very Much for posting this Seekandfind...I was waiting for someone to finally post this, was doing a search as we speak and was going to post it myself if it was still not posted...so THANK YOU
Michael Barone is someone that can and should be taken VERY seriously! He is a VERY SERIOUS person!
I found myself feeling discouraged until I read this yesterday on Drudge.
Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That's bad news for Barack Obama... most voters oppose Obama's major policies and consider unsatisfactory the very sluggish economic recovery -- Friday's jobs report showed an unemployment uptick... independents, voters who don't identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans, break for Romney... Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting -- and about their candidate -- than they were in 2008... Democrats trail their 2008 numbers in target states Virginia, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada.
Michael Barone, author of Almanac OF AMERICAN POLITICS, updated yearly, is one of the most serious people in America. He is a guy that can be trusted to remove his political cap and tell it like it is...
If Barone says something, take it VERY seriously, he knows the leaning of every community in every state, he is a extraordinary fellow
I love the guy, was feeling discouraged until I read his piece yesterday
He might not be a professor - it looks like he only studied there.
November 1, 2012
Dont Get Swept up in O(mob)ama Mentality: Surviving the Romney Riots
by CTD Suzanne
Be it conspiracy theory or not, there is Internet chatter about planned riots after the election if President Obama does not win. Historically, riots have occurred during time of intense political strife, racial tension, and harsh economic conditions. In the coming days and weeks, the time is ripe for people to be angry and frustrated following the outcome of the election. Regardless of your political affiliation, everyone thinks the other candidate is going to destroy America; whether through taking away our rights or taking away our money, neither one will we tolerate. Though there is no way to predict exactly when and where civil unrest will happen, it is best to prepare just in case violent rioting breaks out in your city.
Barone is pretty balanced in his analysis. I have disagreed with him many times, but he is usually right.
He went through this on Hannity Friday on air. Not only state by state, but he explained within every state and certain key precints, local issues, etc which led him to his prediction. Frankly, I was amazed at his knowledge at the state level.
Another thing to consider... a vast majority of the media that is closely covering the election have inside information. The reporters who travel with the candidates have info leaked off the record every day. They have a pretty good sense of what the campaigns know. Barone is very connected and probably has some inside information, which is making him more confident.
Rove, Morris, Barone and others are now predicting a Romney win. None of them predicted a McCain win in 2008.
Ann needs to catch up. They added that several days ago.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.