Posted on 11/03/2012 7:50:53 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
The left and the Obama campaign have been pooh-poohing the notion that Mitt Romney has any chance of winning Pennsylvania, despite devoting millions of dollars in ads and visits by the candidate himself to the state this weekend. David Axelrod has gone so far as to say he will shave his moustache off if Romney takes the Keystone State.
But there is a method to Mitt's supposed madness, as Jay Cost so ably explains:
*****
Broad context: PA outside of Philly County has been trending red for 20 years. It has so far been checked by Dem turnout in Philly County, but Philly County's population has been flat. So turnout increases in the county are from turnout machines/enthusiasm alone. At some point, that could breakdown.
So assume:
(a) Total PA turnout is up 3% over 2008. Philly County comprises 11.5% of total PA electorate (similar to 2004, less than 2008).
(b) Romney wins non-Philly county 54-46. (Slightly better than Bush '04, who won 52.5 to 47.5)
Then:
Obama MUST net 433k votes out of Philly County to win. In 2008 he netted 478k votes. In 2004 Kerry netted 410k votes. In 2000 Gore netted 350k votes.
Tweak the assumptions to lower Philly turnout, increase non-Philly turnout, increase Romney share of non-Philly. And Keystone State goes red.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
There are just two states you need to watch on Tue.... NH and PA, if they both go for Romney, the election is over!!!
Drumore drive 1983 we were neighbors. lol
Drumore drive 1983 we were neighbors. lol
I'm talking places like Snellville, GA; Escondido, CA; Naperville, IL; Chelmsford, MA; Scottsdale, AZ; and on and on.
Almost all these heavily populated and prosperous suburbs swung towards Obama in 2008. They are not going to swing that way in 2012. Why? Because Mitt Romney appeals to most of these suburbanites. He's a Republican but he's not a "dangerous or scary" Republican like Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum would have been. These suburbanites had their fling with Obama and now the honeymoon is over. Romney represents to them a "safe" Republican and a competent person who can get the economy moving again. Romney doesn't scare these people. He's the kind of person they see out on the golf course or at Gentlemen's Wearhouse trying on a blue blazer and getting some slacks and dress shirts. He's also the type of guy that is executive VP at the high tech company they work at or maybe senior partner at the law firm they belong to.
Obama lost all this suburban base. And that is why places like Pennsylvania are in play this election. Sure, Obama is going to turn out the inner city welfare crowd and all the immigrants who think our government owes them something. That's why he's going to still end up with around 47% of the vote.
But these suburbs are going to deliver the 6-7% of the vote that McCain couldn't get four years ago. So we are going to see something like a 53-47 or 54-46% victory for Romney.
Yeah right off Academy next to the airport. ‘79-’84 used to go to 94th Aerosquadron all the time with my wife. Went to Judge then St Joes. Now in Jersey.
Lets keep our fingers crossed. I’m headed tmrw Sunday to see Romney come to PA for huge rally in Bucks county (Yardley PA) 5:30pm starts 2pm!
Shady Brook Farm, Yardley PA !!!
Been awhile but i turned right on academy then left on grant i think. went to roxborough high. then moved up to ne. worked for bel of pa til i left for fla. most of my family still in ne and bucks county.
i used to teach programming at night in marlton nj.
guess your taxes are HIGH.
i also used to live near olney on hope st. Went back once since 1984. dont miss it.
Sounds like u left for ‘greener’ pastures. Dont blame ya. Presume you’re in FL, been going there every few yrs. South Beach. Nothing like 80 degree water. Hope u guys bring FL home for Romney.
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