Posted on 11/03/2012 7:50:53 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
The left and the Obama campaign have been pooh-poohing the notion that Mitt Romney has any chance of winning Pennsylvania, despite devoting millions of dollars in ads and visits by the candidate himself to the state this weekend. David Axelrod has gone so far as to say he will shave his moustache off if Romney takes the Keystone State.
But there is a method to Mitt's supposed madness, as Jay Cost so ably explains:
*****
Broad context: PA outside of Philly County has been trending red for 20 years. It has so far been checked by Dem turnout in Philly County, but Philly County's population has been flat. So turnout increases in the county are from turnout machines/enthusiasm alone. At some point, that could breakdown.
So assume:
(a) Total PA turnout is up 3% over 2008. Philly County comprises 11.5% of total PA electorate (similar to 2004, less than 2008).
(b) Romney wins non-Philly county 54-46. (Slightly better than Bush '04, who won 52.5 to 47.5)
Then:
Obama MUST net 433k votes out of Philly County to win. In 2008 he netted 478k votes. In 2004 Kerry netted 410k votes. In 2000 Gore netted 350k votes.
Tweak the assumptions to lower Philly turnout, increase non-Philly turnout, increase Romney share of non-Philly. And Keystone State goes red.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
It’s all about the “sheep’ RAT votes in Philadelphia + however number of ‘fraud’ votes they can rally up (dead people, double dippers, etc...) in the North Phila and West Phila sections.
Obama is going to take a big hit in traditionally democrat white-Italian South Philadelphia, and white Northeast Phila. That should be the big story in demolishing the Philadelphia RAT ‘firewall’.
Salena Zito on John Batchelor last night ...Mittens can win if Obamas voters turn out is less than 08..it has to match 08 for OBAMA to win....
The Catholic democrat from Philly will break for Romney. When you religion is under attack by the president you have to vote for the other guy. Pollsters are ignoring this flip of the Catholic voter this year.
Right. He went after a bridge too far by attacking the Catholic church. The other word is COAL. South-Western Pa lives (lived) off coal and anyone in PA who is not beholden to coal, knows someone who is.
O was also mocking Pa folks when he went after “bitter clingers” (to Bibles and guns). Video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=C6E8Vc2uWRo
That supercilious POS
I'm pessimistic about PA and think that Dumbo will manufacture the 433K Philly votes he needs to win the state.
Ohio I think is also a question mark.
However I am optimistic about the other swing states.
If Romney wins Florida, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, I don’t see how Obama is going to have any chance.
Speaking as someone from italian heritage who lived off grant ave NE phila, i hope you are right
If Romney takes PA, it would confound RAT operatives for years to come.
I lived in Philly from ‘97 to ‘01. Last month I attended a wedding in NJ so I swung by Pat’s for a steak. S. Philly, unfortunately, is no longer Italian. Even the “Italian Market” area has turned into Little Mexico.
People were handing out free Catholics for Romney/Ryan/Smith signs in far northeast Philly yesterday. I’m glad he’s going to Yardley...but the far Northeast portion of philadelphia (although theres also a fair share of unions there) could also help set off the north/west Philly fraud... I mean votes. Hoping and praying.
PA is trending Red.... the GOP won epic victories in 2010, winning back control of the PA House, the statehouse, most of the congressional delegation and a US Senate seat.
Think of Philly as a very large Democrat iceberg in a very Red State. Luckily enough, the share of the Democrat statewide vote is flat.
Unlike VA, PA looks to become even redder than OH. Its like in MO - the 2010 mid-term blowout there brightened GOP national hopes.
Romney is going to be the first GOP presidential candidate since Bush I to carry the Keystone State.
Good points about the recent election history in PA. Isn’t Joe Biden’s old hometown of Scranton now represented in Washington by a Republican Congressman?
Bill Scranton R 1961-63
Joe McDade R 1963-99
Don Sherwood R 1999-2007
Chris Carney D 2007-2011
Tom Marino R 2011-2013
Marino’s from Williamsport, and Scranton has been shifted to the 17th district. Matt Cartwright D is favored to win.
PA Ping!
If you want on/off the PA Ping List, please freepmail me.
If you see posts of interest to Pennsylvanians, please ping me.
Thanks!
His problem is Philly and the surrounding areas (and thankfully, like NYC, part of their suburbs are in another state and don't matter), but even there, there are evangelicals who will vote for him despite what they tell pollsters.
Philly is full of brave people.
Why would any of them support Benghazi-Coward Obama?
Hey you. I also lived by NE Phila airport...on Woodbridge Rd (off Ashton)
We’ll get the ‘burbs this time (Delco, Montgomery, and Bucks), if PA goes to Romney it’s because we’ve taken the fight ‘inside the perimeter’ .... inside Philly into the NE and South Philly areas, that’s where the ‘victory’ will be won.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.