Rasmussen Daily: SAT: 11/03: R:48 O:48 Obama -8% : THREE Days Left!

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 11/03/2012 | Rasmussen Reports

[SoftwareEngineer]

Saturday, November 03, 2012

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows the race tied, with President Obama and Mitt Romney each attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are still undecided. See daily tracking history.

Forty-six percent (46%) are certain they will vote for Romney, while 45% are sure they will vote for the president.

For most of the year, Rasmussen Reports has conducted 500 survey interviews per night and reported the results on a three-day rolling average basis. For the final week of the campaign, we are conducting 1,000 survey interviews per night.

[SoftwareEngineer]

Commentary by Engineer

Another day, another tie...

However, there are some differences from yesterday as the Governors numbers deteriorated a little bit internally and some of these numbers seem a little SUSPECT

He is up 5 with Independents but behind 10 with women

I am now a bit suspicious of the numbers here. The Governor is getting LESS support from Republicans (87%) than the President is getting from Democrats (89%)

Sounds a bit odd. The “Broken Glass Conservative” effect seems to be not captured here

Also, the President finally cracked the 50% mark in approval. He now stands at 51%. This is definitely post Sandy and post Governor Christie

The Presidential approval index is -8%

The right track/wrong track is 40/54 nationally but 45/45 for Asians/Hispanics

On a mathematical note, the Governor’s raw numbers are still higher than the President, his numbers are closer to 49% but rounding down reduces it to a tie

I heard yesterday that Rasmussen had increased his party breakdown to D+4 instead of the D+2 he was at last weekend.

This is NOT confirmed (as NHWinGut is on sick leave) but if so, that alone explains the 2% shift

As a comparison point, there was a poll out in PA yesterday by a well respected firm that shows the Governor ahead of the President by 4.

Also, there was the massive rally held by the Governor yesterday in OH, which may have pulled in over 35,000 people

I am not going to say that Scott Rasmussen is deliberately skewing this poll. He is WELL RESPECTED and I truly enjoy his polls. However, even the best of us make a mistake now and then.

Yesterday's OH poll by Scott Rasmussen was widely criticized for the Independent numbers. There seems to be an "anomaly" here

I guess on TUE we will find out who was right. This is the MOST difficult election I have ever covered. The polls are everywhere and analyzing the internals is becoming very difficult. Let us count the various problems we are dealing with in all these polls:

• Over sampling of Democrats
• Over sampling of Independents
• Over sampling of Women
• Under sampling of Republicans
• Under sampling of Independents
• Loose likely voter screens
• Small sample sizes

  
  
  72 hours to go!! We are almost there!
  
  More soon! NOTE: Many of these numbers are internal and are not on the link above

[SoftwareEngineer]

Daily RAS Official Thread ping!

[Perdogg]

what is the raw number?

[SoFloFreeper]

Obamugabe at -8¿ Did America suddenly decide it wants Obamacare??

Ugh.

[outofstyle]

If The President gained anything from Sandy, I would expect today to reflect the peak effect. I think his micro bounce is fading.

[ilgipper]

I agree at first blus there is something that doesn’t make sense in this week’s trends, why would republican support for Romney suddenly decline. There are countless examples of democrats unenthusiastic or voting Romney, virtually none on the reverse side.

Was hoping to see a tick back up today to 49, but I think the news yesterday was denominated by how bad things have deteriorated in Staten Island and the growing discontent among hurricane victims. Seems crazy that this is somehow helping Obama, other than the fax that it mostly took Romney out of the news cycle completely.

This is going to be the longest four days EVER.

[Lacey2]

I sent the following to Rasmussen from their site:

Dear Sir/Madam,

Several days ago a message appeared on your site saying the daily tracking would continue despite the storm which has had a devastating effect on the tri-State area. The reasoning you gave was the calls being made were coming from areas outside those which were devastated by the storm.

It is my opinion the place from which the calls are made is of little consequence but where they are made TO is what is most important. With power lost to about 10 million people and cell service down across the region (I live in NJ) your polling should have been suspended as was that of Gallup and IBD/TIPP. There is no way a representative number said to comprise the opinion of a nation can be accurate when such a huge number of people are either unavailable or not disposed to answer a pollster coherently in the midst of a tragedy.

Gallup has resumed their polling but with the explanation the results will be carefully screened to determine accuracy possibly influenced by the storm. They seem to be saying they may not even report the results on Monday the 5th of November or if they do it will be with a strong caveat.

I would like to see Rasmussen (suspend or qualify the results) do the same because as you know a polling result can have a real affect on turnout and should it be incorrect the result could be harmful to the candidate on the wrong end of the horse race number.

Regards,

[sunmars]

Yes, i suspected Rasmussen increased his D sample, maybe because of the storm as he is not operationg out of NJ at present, i think all his polls are whacky at present, he’s basically putting everything at a tie.

[daler]

It will all come down to turnout...I can’t see anyone being swayed at this late hour.

[goldstategop]

Its garbage.

Its going to be even or R+1 or R+2

Ras - you’re full of horses-—t this morning!

[InterceptPoint]

If The President gained anything from Sandy, I would expect today to reflect the peak effect. I think his micro bounce is fading.

Hopefully.

We can also hope that the obvious actual failure of FEMA gets reported in the press. It is hard to ignore starving people in NJ and NY. If so, the micro-bounce should dissipate rapidly.

[gswilder]

AS far as polling goes, definitely some stalled momentum for Romney the last few days. Indy’s seem to be getting tighter in several polls. Whether is is hurricane sandy or just the normal movement of the campaign, I don’t know.

I just think as Barone said, the fundamentals all favor Romney. The enthusiasm gap is there for the republicans. Early voting, which is MUCH more accurate than any poll right now, favors Romney. And I believe the GOP turnout will swamp things on Tuesday night.

The Romney campaign is acting like a winner. Drawing crowds 10x Obama. Romney is expanding into Blue State, and Obama is quickly abandoning purple states. Romney is painting a positive and uplifting vision for America. Obama’s “loins” close is pretty petty and bitter.

I always felt if Romney went into election down 2-3, he would still win. Looks like we are going in with Romney tied to slightly ahead. Regardless of the head to head poll, Obama cannot get above 47-48%. Carville even said the incumbent does not improve from his final poll numbers. I still feel very confident.

[pburgh01]

I am amused by poll threads and people that hang their enthusiasm on them. Do you really think people in a large sample change their mind that readily? Does that pass the logic test? Let’s get more specific, does really any Romney voter think OMG there is Obungo with Christie..I am changing my vote. Nonsensical isn’t it? Oh well I guess why we have FR and poll threads with the requisite Concern Trolls. I can’t wait to electon day, to end all of this.

[goldstategop]

If its a heavily Republican electorate, none of the pollsters saw it coming!

I don’t see any intensity or passion for Obama. This poll is skewed to the Democrats.

I can guarantee its way off! Look at the weekend rallies and tell me who has the drive, the passion and the desire to win!

[PatrickHaggerty]

What concerns me most is the approval rating increase in these final days.

Anyone know when Gallup is releasing its final number?

[montag813]

I place no confidence in it. No way is the election tied.

You are discounting Sandy and the Crispy Creme Christie endorsement. It was HEAVILY promoted by the MSM, and CNN showed that Obama earned a 78% - 8% approval of his handling of the crisis - before it even began!

[Kahuna]

Other than elections with viable third party candidates does anyone out there remember an incumbent at 48% 3 days prior to the election winning?

[RightLady]

We need to start prayer vigils that start election eve and last until 6:30 AM when the polls open on Tues.

[ncalburt]

I agree with you .
Ras polling model has been odd for awhile .
His internals do not match the results .
Something is wacky .
But the old reporter Mark Twain said it best
There are lies , bigger lies , and then statistics !

[wolfman23601]

He actually increased the sample well before the storm.

[VanDeKoik]

So I suppose this is going to be the 8 hour home to the concern trolls. Well lets get their standard boo hoo replies out of the way...



UGH
CRAP
< WE ARE LOST
I CANT BELIEVE PEOPLE LOVE OBAMA
IM GOING TO CRY
AMERICA IS DOOMED
ITS ALL THE PEOPLE ON WELFARE

Blah blah blah.

While the actual candidates are using time and resources to get people to the polls, FR has to deal with a weekend of these people flooding every discussion with their nonsense.

This weekend is about getting pumped, not weeping over poll A or B because they are not driving events now, they are there for entertainment, and apparently to provide really unstable people a reason to waste our time on FR whining about it.

[GoCards]

The trend is not our friend right now. Amazed at how bipolar Americans are. I just assume folks that change one day to the next, stay the hell home. They are going to get us killed, iddiots

[goldstategop]

Why on earth would you take a poll with bad data and a flawed turnout model as gospel?

The pollsters are ALL wrong. If this election were really close, we’d be seeing it in a renewed Obama momentum. It simply isn’t there!

Who are you going to believe - lying pollsters like Ras or the ground game?

God gave you a brain - use it!

[SoftwareEngineer]

Perdogg,

I will do the math later today but, back of the hand math again suggests it is about a 0.8 point advantage for the Governor

[scooby321]

State Polls are friend

Florida 6

NC over

Virginia Over

Ohio looks great

Pa looks good

[goldstategop]

That’s because you place faith in a model with skewed Democratic turnout. As for the news you cite, its probably statistical noise.

It only reinforces my point that ALL of the polls - apart from Gallup - are unreliable.

[snarkytart]

Yea but bad news yesterday is not going to show today even if a poll was conducted last night. News (good or bad) really takes a couple of days to show in these rolling average polls.
By Monday we should see whether the bad news from NY and NJ will have an impact. Same with the uptick in unemployment number Friday. Oh sure the media tried to spin it good for zer0 but the rate still went up and that’s what people see and remember.

[scooby321]

Sandy the media os covering because of where it is in New York and people see no Federal Government

Watching a man now on TV calling it KATRINA

[Free America52]

My theory is a little more cynical. Maybe Rasmussen is just trying to avoid the special “attention” that Gallup received from the DOJ and is trying to ride this out under the radar until after the election.

[JLAGRAYFOX]

All pollsters are hedging their bets. They have lost it!!! Not one of any respected caliber has made a prediction. I would ignore them all and just go out and vote for Romney/Ryan because they are going to win handily!!!

[teg_76]

Probably Monday...I read on their website they’re doing a final Thurs-Sunday poll...

[SoftwareEngineer]

It comes out on Monday, although, now I am hearing that they will poll on Monday also, and release another poll on Tuesday

[palmer]

The only people who could be swayed now are idiots who might as well vote Obama. The turnout is key like you said. Look for the Media to put out turnout-depressing stories. For example an NYT editorial asks if Romney is unravelling.

[ladyjane]

These polls should be outlawed.

The MSM use these polls to sway the voters.

In a better world, presidential campaigns should have a spending limit of 1M and no polling data should be released. (think of all the money the MSM would lose if they couldn’t air those ads)

[FerociousRabbit]

“I am amused by poll threads and people that hang their enthusiasm on them. Do you really think people in a large sample change their mind that readily? Does that pass the logic test? Let’s get more specific, does really any Romney voter think OMG there is Obungo with Christie..I am changing my vote. Nonsensical isn’t it? Oh well I guess why we have FR and poll threads with the requisite Concern Trolls. I can’t wait to electon day, to end all of this.”

I saw a skinny black dude standing next to a fat white dude on TV. I am voting for the fat white dude for prez. Huh? He’s not running? Okay, I’ll vote for the skinny black dude because, well... he was standing next to the fat white dude.

It sounds nonsensical but this IS America, the enchanted land where anything can happen. Luckily, the millions of voters out there that actually follow this reasoning (and I believe there are many millions of them) will most likely be bummed when they realize next Thursday that they forgot to vote on Tuesday for the fat black dude. No, the skinny white dude. No, that’s not it either. Vote for the... oh, forget about it.

[Arthurio]

I think there’s a lot of looking over the shoulder going on here with pollsters.

Pew will come out with a final on Monday. They were on the money in 2004. Their last poll was tied, but turnout and other factors strongly favoring Romney.

[JPG]

Thanks for your reporting and analysis. It is appreciated.

[Jumper]

If the president did get a bounce in the North East/NJ/NY it would be in that area only.... Seems to me everyone will either vote their needs (if not affected by the weather...) or emotions. Emotional voters are accounted for in the 47%.

The 47% is going to be the most famous prediction ever in politics if Romney wins and Obama only pulls 47%.

[LS]

I think more what SoftwareEngineer is getting at---and I suspected this too when Gallup quit polling---is that the hurricane so disrupted phone lines, people's lives, and communication everywhere that your previous 1% response sample probably has dropped to .01%.

I have been told by a well-known Republican pollster that you all know that there is a certain laziness with the bigger polling organizations and their people are supposed to get x number of men, y number of indies, and so on. But after a while, they just get tired and sloppy and start saying, "Ok, close enough, I'll make him a Hispanic." With the advent of caller ID and cell phones (a large portion of which go to businessmen and suburban housewives, as well as the expected users of "yuts" and inner city types), pollsters are getting de facto a more D sample no matter what they try.

[FlipWilson]

Sitting in no power, no gas, NJ right now. Sandy + 6 and we have had an Obama photo op and praise for said photo op from Gov Tub. We have had nothing else. People who were good natured and affable are now mad as hell. They are openly wondering what the truck President photo op was talking about when he said that we would get whatever we need. As te anger increases, look for a fade for President photo op.

[SoftwareEngineer]

My pleasure...

(Raise you a toast in anticipation of the Governor’s victory on TUE)

[napscoordinator]

They get an A- and 97 percent accuracy for polls. This must be the 3 percent inaccurate...lol. Of course, all polls that do not go our way is considered suspect...lol.

[pburgh01]

Well we need to direct those people to those poling places that open just for them on Wednesday AM, where prepaid phone cards and left over Halloween candy will be distributed to the first 1000 voters. I think I heard Jay-Z and Pitbull will be performing a duet of “Turn this mutha out”, there also.

[Arthurio]

You are going to stew in your anger but the media won’t cover it. Christie could redeem himself now (somewhat) by asking Obama very publicly what happened to all the help that was promised.

[Arthurio]

Ras weekly poll commentary : http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/weekly_updates/what_they_told_us_reviewing_last_week_s_key_polls2

Strong majority still wants to repeal obamacare. People must be schizoid.

[snarkytart]

This! Christie better get to it. It would only be the truth anyway.

[C210N]

I am not going to say that Scott Rasmussen is deliberately skewing this poll...

No, he wouldn't skew. He uses a special sauce.

[TonyInOhio]

Of course, all polls that do not go our way is considered suspect...lol.

C'mon. You're still bitter that Mitt Romney is our nominee, and so you post doom on poll threads to depress other FReepers? Would it actually make you feel better to see Obama win?

[ShovelThemOut]

Calm down, Freepers. Take a Xanax, and stop looking at polls. Keep in mind:

1. They told us the Wisconsin Recall was TOO CLOSE TO CALL on the day of that election.

2. We were told Kerry had a lead in OH of 5 points days before the 2004 election. Bush won OH.

3. Not one single pollster predicted the republican TIDAL WAVE of 2010. Not a single one.

4. Romney/Ryan are filling up HUGE stadiums and Zero’s people are having to change to smaller venues so there can’t be photos of massive empty seats.

5. Ask yourself this: Forget about R or D. Suppose Candidate A is an incumbent president who can’t get to 50% in the polls. The people who enthusiastically turned out for him before are going to either switch sides or stay home in significant numbers (youth vote, women, Jews, Catholics). Candidate A cannot run on his disastrous record, and so the entire campaign strategy has been to depict his opponent as an evil person and accuse him of being a lying murderer. The crowds at events for Candidate A look dejected and desperate. Even though the press is trying fervently to cover for Candidate A, the public saw with their own eyes and ears how Candidate A blamed a video for a terrorist attack and the public knows that to be a blatant lie.

Candidate B had the entire lame-stream press against him, yet he handily won the first debate and people saw that he is not the person demonized by his opponent. Candidate B has run an upbeat campaign and has talked about the issues. Candidate B has a business record to run on. Candidate B has been at 50% to 51% in the polls (with a minor blip due to slobbering hurricane press coverage of Candidate A). Candidate B has won back the women’s vote from what it was at the last election. The independents are favoring Candidate B. The enthusiasm for Candidate B is at record levels.

So, forgetting R or D, with three days left to go, which campaign would you want to be a part of?