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Keep Calm and Finish Him
PJ Tatler ^ | November 2, 2012 | Charlie Martin

Posted on 11/03/2012 6:02:24 AM PDT by Not gonna take it anymore

. . . That said, there are some things to look at that can perhaps help you sleep tonight.

I. Michael Barone

There’s not a lot of people smarter about American politics than Michael Barone; he’s worked for both parties over the years, he’s made a life study out of American politics. And he’s been saying for weeks that he thinks Romney will win. He said it today, again.

Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223. That sounds high for Romney. But he could drop Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election.

II. Today’s Washington Post

In a story today titled “Obama’s Defectors,” the WaPo looks at a long series of their polls. Rather than averaging them — I just drove a bunch of people screaming from the room by showing a proof of the problems of averaging, so I promise I won’t, but believe me, it sucks — they looked at a long series of polls of various different subpopulations. In each case they asked people who had voted for Obama if they were going to again. In every case, there was a fair proportion of “defectors.”

Overall, “[t]wo weeks of Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll interviews find 84 percent of likely voters who supported Obama in 2008 support him this year, while 13 percent say they are switching to Romney and 3 percent are backing others or haven’t made up their mind yet.” Now, from the standpoint of the Republican Party, whether they vote for Romney or for Mickey Mouse, they reduce Obama’s vote. Now, here’s a little bit of math for you: Obama got about 53 percent of the vote in 2008. Obama is only getting 84 percent of those votes this time.

84 percent of 53 percent is 45 percent.

(Excerpt) Read more at pjmedia.com ...


TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; bho2012; election; landslide; math; romney
Remember 2010 mid-terms Remember Chick fil A

Those people are voting Obama out. He's over.

1 posted on 11/03/2012 6:02:34 AM PDT by Not gonna take it anymore
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To: Not gonna take it anymore

Toss out today’s, Sunday’s and Monday’s polls.

They’ll all use a discredited turnout model. The numbers you see are way off!

None of them reflect the ground game.


2 posted on 11/03/2012 6:06:13 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Not gonna take it anymore

“not a lot of people smarter about American politics than Michael Barone”

Gotta chime in about that, ever since hearing him go through states like Ohio county by county, only occasionally referring to notes, I put him on the top of the list of Smart People Who Actually Are! (as opposed to Obama czars, for example).


3 posted on 11/03/2012 6:08:20 AM PDT by bigbob
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To: Not gonna take it anymore

Say, how about doing an exit poll at Chick-fil-A... After voting on Tuesday go celebrate by eating out at Chick-fil-A.


4 posted on 11/03/2012 6:17:31 AM PDT by dps.inspect (rage against the Obama machine...)
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To: goldstategop
Here is something to chew on Gold. I was polled today by the Romney campaign..in person, by a real person, outside my local Giant Eagle grocery store. Pretty young, Penn State student holding a clip board. She did not disclose who she worked for until I pressed her. This is how campaigns poll, in addition to phone polls. Rasmussen, Zogby..none of them do this, the take a small sample and use mathematical rules to extrapolate. A SWAG as we say in software speak..Scientific Wild Ass* Guess. So yes watch the polls but watch the intangibles and the climate and what the enemy is doing. I smell a rout coming in 3 days, big rout. We are taking the Senate and throw in another 5-10 seats in the House. Harry R will have a time just maintaining his caucus and doing any filibustering.
5 posted on 11/03/2012 6:26:11 AM PDT by pburgh01
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To: pburgh01

The math is just bad. If Ras shows the race tied again today, I’m writing it off. A D+4, D+5, D+6 turnout model simply isn’t believable.

The conventional wisdom is its 2008 all over again. Its simply wrong. That’s what happens when the media and the pollsters follow the herd.

If your assumption is wrong, then the data isn’t a good fit for it. GIGO.


6 posted on 11/03/2012 6:41:47 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: All

back in the 90’s, I used to work with a guy that was a student of theoretical mathematics and he was taking internships at companies that allowed him to just “think” about mathematical models and applications of advanced statistical methods. He was a total dork, but thinking on such a high level that we had no idea what he was talking about. He would volunteer to go out and get us lunch if we would sit in the conference room and listen to his ideas.

In referencing both 1996 and 1998 election models, he cited Michael Barone.


7 posted on 11/03/2012 6:42:15 AM PDT by newnhdad (Where will you be during the Election Riots of 2012/2013?)
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To: Not gonna take it anymore

8 posted on 11/03/2012 6:48:01 AM PDT by yefragetuwrabrumuy (DIY Bumper Sticker: "THREE TIMES,/ DEMOCRATS/ REJECTED GOD")
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To: goldstategop

GIGO?


9 posted on 11/03/2012 6:55:55 AM PDT by cardinal4 (Vote him out!)
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To: cardinal4

GIGO?

Garbage In Garbage Out


10 posted on 11/03/2012 7:01:34 AM PDT by sixstriger
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To: dps.inspect
Say, how about doing an exit poll at Chick-fil-A... After voting on Tuesday go celebrate by eating out at Chick-fil-A.

Great idea!

11 posted on 11/03/2012 7:01:53 AM PDT by Never on my watch (I can see November from the Chick-Fil-A drive through lane.)
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To: sixstriger

Ah, thanks..!


12 posted on 11/03/2012 7:07:43 AM PDT by cardinal4 (Vote him out!)
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To: Not gonna take it anymore

I’ve been saying the same thing. But I added “remember the Tea Party rallies!”


13 posted on 11/03/2012 7:08:53 AM PDT by pioneerstakethearrows
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To: pioneerstakethearrows

14 posted on 11/03/2012 7:19:14 AM PDT by Neidermeyer
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To: Not gonna take it anymore

15 posted on 11/03/2012 7:19:45 AM PDT by CharlesMartelsGhost
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To: dps.inspect

great Idea! Count me in on that!


16 posted on 11/03/2012 7:38:05 AM PDT by marygam (#Hurry November 2012, we might not make it#)
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To: dps.inspect

that’s exactly what I think we need to do.....vote and go eat at Chick-Fil-A!


17 posted on 11/03/2012 7:39:47 AM PDT by pollywog ("O Thou who changest not, abide with me.".......)
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To: Not gonna take it anymore

“Keep Calm and Finish Him”

Love the title.

“Finish” the whole damned subversive Democrat party. Sick of their treason.


18 posted on 11/03/2012 7:52:00 AM PDT by NFHale (The Second Amendment - By Any Means Necessary.)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Michael Barone and Washington Post, thanks Not gonna take it anymore.


19 posted on 11/03/2012 8:29:46 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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I’m working the polls on election day which means 6am to 9pm.

It’s going to be awesome!


20 posted on 11/03/2012 12:33:20 PM PDT by Not gonna take it anymore (If Obama were twice as smart as he is, he would be a wit)
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