Skip to comments.Keep Calm and Finish Him
Posted on 11/03/2012 6:02:24 AM PDT by Not gonna take it anymore
. . . That said, there are some things to look at that can perhaps help you sleep tonight.
I. Michael Barone
Theres not a lot of people smarter about American politics than Michael Barone; hes worked for both parties over the years, hes made a life study out of American politics. And hes been saying for weeks that he thinks Romney will win. He said it today, again.
Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223. That sounds high for Romney. But he could drop Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election.
II. Todays Washington Post
In a story today titled Obamas Defectors, the WaPo looks at a long series of their polls. Rather than averaging them I just drove a bunch of people screaming from the room by showing a proof of the problems of averaging, so I promise I wont, but believe me, it sucks they looked at a long series of polls of various different subpopulations. In each case they asked people who had voted for Obama if they were going to again. In every case, there was a fair proportion of defectors.
Overall, [t]wo weeks of Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll interviews find 84 percent of likely voters who supported Obama in 2008 support him this year, while 13 percent say they are switching to Romney and 3 percent are backing others or havent made up their mind yet. Now, from the standpoint of the Republican Party, whether they vote for Romney or for Mickey Mouse, they reduce Obamas vote. Now, heres a little bit of math for you: Obama got about 53 percent of the vote in 2008. Obama is only getting 84 percent of those votes this time.
84 percent of 53 percent is 45 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at pjmedia.com ...
Those people are voting Obama out. He's over.
Toss out today’s, Sunday’s and Monday’s polls.
They’ll all use a discredited turnout model. The numbers you see are way off!
None of them reflect the ground game.
“not a lot of people smarter about American politics than Michael Barone”
Gotta chime in about that, ever since hearing him go through states like Ohio county by county, only occasionally referring to notes, I put him on the top of the list of Smart People Who Actually Are! (as opposed to Obama czars, for example).
Say, how about doing an exit poll at Chick-fil-A... After voting on Tuesday go celebrate by eating out at Chick-fil-A.
The math is just bad. If Ras shows the race tied again today, I’m writing it off. A D+4, D+5, D+6 turnout model simply isn’t believable.
The conventional wisdom is its 2008 all over again. Its simply wrong. That’s what happens when the media and the pollsters follow the herd.
If your assumption is wrong, then the data isn’t a good fit for it. GIGO.
back in the 90’s, I used to work with a guy that was a student of theoretical mathematics and he was taking internships at companies that allowed him to just “think” about mathematical models and applications of advanced statistical methods. He was a total dork, but thinking on such a high level that we had no idea what he was talking about. He would volunteer to go out and get us lunch if we would sit in the conference room and listen to his ideas.
In referencing both 1996 and 1998 election models, he cited Michael Barone.
Garbage In Garbage Out
I’ve been saying the same thing. But I added “remember the Tea Party rallies!”
great Idea! Count me in on that!
that’s exactly what I think we need to do.....vote and go eat at Chick-Fil-A!
“Keep Calm and Finish Him”
Love the title.
“Finish” the whole damned subversive Democrat party. Sick of their treason.
Michael Barone and Washington Post, thanks Not gonna take it anymore.
I’m working the polls on election day which means 6am to 9pm.
It’s going to be awesome!