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House Republicans may actually add to their majority on Election Day
Washington Post ^ | November 2, 2012 | Aaron Blake

Posted on 11/03/2012 12:22:49 AM PDT by GonzoII

The Fix now projects that the 2012 race for the House is likely to be close to a draw, and there is even a fair chance that Republicans will add to their biggest majority in six decades on Tuesday.

Below, The Fix is updating the ratings of 10 House races, with most of them moving in the GOP’s direction.

In recent weeks, as Mitt Romney has gained a few points in the presidential race, a similar but slight shift has been happening at the House level: The generic ballot has tightened.

While Democrats had built a modest advantage on the generic ballot (a measure of whether people prefer a generic Republican or a generic Democrat) when President Obama built some momentum in September, that advantage is basically gone now.

The Fix now projects that the 2012 race for the House is likely to be close to a draw, and there is even a fair chance that Republicans will add to their biggest majority in six decades on Tuesday.

Below, The Fix is updating the ratings of 10 House races, with most of them moving in the GOP’s direction.

In recent weeks, as Mitt Romney has gained a few points in the presidential race, a similar but slight shift has been happening at the House level: The generic ballot has tightened.

While Democrats had built a modest advantage on the generic ballot (a measure of whether people prefer a generic Republican or a generic Democrat) when President Obama built some momentum in September, that advantage is basically gone now.

In part because of this, Democrats have seen their candidates in conservative-leaning districts suffer. Friday, we are moving several red-district Democrats into more vulnerable ratings, including Reps. Ron Barber (D-Ariz.), Mark Critz (D-Pa.), Jim Matheson (D-Utah), Ben Chandler (D-Ky.) and Kathy Hochul..

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: congress; election2012; gop
Should happen with a landslide for Mitt.
1 posted on 11/03/2012 12:22:55 AM PDT by GonzoII
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To: GonzoII

I would love to see Illinois turn red as part of a Romney landslide..


2 posted on 11/03/2012 12:29:36 AM PDT by cardinal4 (Vote him out!)
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To: GonzoII

I just don’t know what will happen... the polls are a lot like pole dancers - they go up and down, up and down...


3 posted on 11/03/2012 12:35:34 AM PDT by floridavoter2
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To: GonzoII

Remember Nancy Pelosi telling anyone who would listen that there was a very good chance she’d be speaker again after the 2012 elections? I believe she made this prediction about six months ago.


4 posted on 11/03/2012 12:51:25 AM PDT by Steely Tom (If the Constitution can be a living document, I guess a corporation can be a person.)
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To: GonzoII

Icing on the cake!


5 posted on 11/03/2012 12:51:25 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: GonzoII

On Greta tonight, the contender for Gabby Giffords old seat was ex-fighter pilot Martha McSally. Too soft for my end of the desert, but maybe accepble for very liberal Tucson. Her opponent Ron Barber never expected to be Pelosi’s pet poodle’s understudy.


6 posted on 11/03/2012 1:01:22 AM PDT by lulu16 (May the Good Lord take a liking to you!)
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To: GonzoII

Nothing positive has occurred to propel Democrats since the 2010
Republican landslide.

The house Dems have followed Zer0 to the graveyard.


7 posted on 11/03/2012 1:04:53 AM PDT by ChiMark (chewed up his body for a decade)
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To: Steely Tom

After her 2010 victory predictions the only folks listening to Pelosi these days are drunks at a bar at 2 in the morning.


8 posted on 11/03/2012 1:11:50 AM PDT by cgbg (No bailouts for New York and California. Let them eat debt.)
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To: cardinal4

that would certainly bring a very ill noise from the windy city.


9 posted on 11/03/2012 1:21:33 AM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (cat dog, cat dog, alone in the world is a little cat dog)
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To: ChiMark

Democrats have been loath to disassociate themselves from their figurehead idol because everyone’s taunting “are you racist?”

Live by the nonsense, die by the nonsense.


10 posted on 11/03/2012 1:23:05 AM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (cat dog, cat dog, alone in the world is a little cat dog)
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To: Steely Tom

I believe that she spoke from the great beyond as a scary halogen image like in Wizard of Oz.


11 posted on 11/03/2012 1:28:14 AM PDT by lulu16 (May the Good Lord take a liking to you!)
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To: GonzoII

I think we’ll pick up 20-22 seats.


12 posted on 11/03/2012 1:48:44 AM PDT by Jacknudy
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To: Jacknudy
"I think we’ll pick up 20-22 seats."

From your lips to God's ears!

13 posted on 11/03/2012 1:51:40 AM PDT by GonzoII (Quia tu es, Deus, fortitudo mea...Quare tristis es anima mea?)
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To: HiTech RedNeck

Correct. I think we will find that the accusations or insinuations of racism put a lot off Americans off..


14 posted on 11/03/2012 1:58:38 AM PDT by cardinal4 (Vote him out!)
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To: GonzoII

Agree. If this would happen not way in hell Obama wins.


15 posted on 11/03/2012 2:05:42 AM PDT by scbison
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To: cardinal4

Well, I haven’t said anything for fear of further ridicule, but the evidence from Cook Co. Shows Obama down there enough that the downstate vote might overcome it.


16 posted on 11/03/2012 3:24:11 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: GonzoII

A Romney landslide may very well mean the end of the Democratic party as we know it. They have gone so far left and with Zero as it’s figurehead, and soon as an ex-President, let’s see, that will mean Slick Will and Zero will be the face of the Dems. And neither one will be able to shut up commenting during Romney’s term. If the republicans don’t shape up and get on board with a conservative agenda then the tea party or constitution party will become a second party. I hope and pray I will see the death of liberalism. And MSNBC going off the air.


17 posted on 11/03/2012 5:32:09 AM PDT by MomwithHope (Buy and read Ameritopia by Mark Levin!)
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To: GonzoII

19 new republican seats.

LLS


18 posted on 11/03/2012 5:33:45 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer (OUR GOVERNMENT AND PRESS ARE NO LONGER TRUSTWORTHY OR DESERVING OF RESPECT!)
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To: GonzoII
All the voters are breaking toward the Republicans in the House races, yet we are suppose to believe a good number of them are going to split their ballot and vote for Obama?!? Not a chance, if the Republican maintain their house seats and even add it will me the electorate still looks like 2010, no way Obama wins in that sort of election.
19 posted on 11/03/2012 6:02:39 AM PDT by apillar
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To: apillar

You got it, Pontiac.


20 posted on 11/03/2012 6:10:15 AM PDT by Former Proud Canadian (Obamanomics-We don't need your stinking tar sands oil, we'll just grow algae.)
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To: GonzoII

Barack Obama, Dingy Harry, Princess Nancy, Dick Durban, Chucky Schumer, et al are American enemies. They are more destructive than Al Qaeda.


21 posted on 11/03/2012 6:13:58 AM PDT by bert ((K.E. N.P. N.C. +12 ..... Present failure and impending death yield irrational action))
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To: apillar

This will have benefits in the Senate races as well (Mittmentum)


22 posted on 11/03/2012 8:05:25 AM PDT by Kolath
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To: GonzoII; randita; GOPsterinMA; BillyBoy; PhilCollins; justiceseeker93; AuH2ORepublican; ...

Democrats never had an advantage in the House races, anyone who said so was full of it. The “generic ballot” means very little.

If they gain 5 they should be thrilled. I think we will gain a few, 5-10. If someone gains more than that it’ll be the GOP.


23 posted on 11/05/2012 4:38:09 AM PST by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: Impy; BillyBoy

I think that, in the House, Democrats will gain 10 seats.


24 posted on 11/05/2012 7:38:15 PM PST by PhilCollins
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To: PhilCollins

I don’t get your predictions, you think they’ll get double what even liberal pundits think than can get but you think Joe Walsh one of the most vulnerable Republicans who looks certain to lose will win easily and IL will be close in the White House race? Very contrarian.

If Walsh survives and IL is close in the POTUS race we are gaining 20 seats.


25 posted on 11/05/2012 8:25:01 PM PST by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: Impy

There are many districts, in different states, who barely elected republican congressmen, in 2010, with 50%-51% of the vote. The majority of those districts usually elect Democrats, so some of those Republicans will lose. However, Rep. Walsh is running in a district where the majority of the voters are Republicans. The majority of the state senators, state reps., and county commissioners, from his district, are Republicans.


26 posted on 11/06/2012 4:25:09 AM PST by PhilCollins
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To: PhilCollins; GOPsterinMA; BillyBoy; AuH2ORepublican; scrabblehack; randita; InterceptPoint; ...

You are mistaken. Very few seats we gained in 2010 were democrat leaning seats. Most were GOP leaning seats that went democrat in the bad elections of 2006 or 2008 or had been democrat long term but conservative, always voting GOP for President and long overdue to elect a Republican Congressman or were usually close swing seats.

The only democrat leaning we seats we gained were

Bobby Schilling in IL-17, he would have probably won again under the old lines but under the new even worse lines he could lose, polls have been tight.

Cravaack in MN-8, while democrat leaning this area is becoming more Republican. He may lose. Ironically he is the first Republican to win that seat since 1944, in 1946 we lost it even while winning a huge landslide nationwide.

Bass in NH 1, The more democrat of the 2 New Hampshire seats. He may lose.

Buerkle in NY-25 (now 24th), Her seat was made even worse and she will probably lose

PA-7 and PA-8, both were made better in redistricting and the incumbents are not in any danger this time.

Barletta in PA-11, this was the most democrat seat we gained but, it’s been redrawn and is now GOP leaning! He is no danger.

Farenthold in TX-27, also redrawn and is now a safe Republican seat.

So that is only 8 democrat leaning seats we gained out of 66 total gains (against 3 losses, all in democrat seats).

And of those 8 gained seats, only 4 are at risk in this election.

Of course there are many other seats we could lose like some of the many swing seats we won and a few we will lose for sure like MD-1 which was redraw to be democrat but redistricting overall was a gain for us.

I predict we will break even, at worst.


27 posted on 11/06/2012 5:27:18 AM PST by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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