Intrade founder and CEO Jon Delaney, interviewed shortly before his second attempt to scale Mount Everest. He died less than 50 meters from the summit in May 2011; he was 42 years old. RIP.
Posted on 11/02/2012 8:43:20 PM PDT by jwsea55
If you are supposed to follow the money, look at InTrade's current numbers: 0 @ $6.71 R @ $3.33
There's a reason they call it gambling...not winning.
: )
Right back at you :-))
[It's a rounding issue, not an error. Likely 82.35 and 17.65 both getting rounded up to the nearest tenth.]
That's what I thought at first but at least couple were more above rounding errors thresholds.
Look at ND 0 4.3% and R 99.0%
How’d InTrade do recently? Like, say, on the USSC decision on Obamacare? While we’re at it, how’d YOU do on your football picks last week?
Scott Ras laughed at Intrade as a guide to who wins
Money's still in pocket. What's football BTW?
From PollingReport.com:
The power of the betting markets in assimilating the collective knowledge and wisdom of those willing to back their judgment with money has only increased in recent years as the volume of money wagered has risen dramatically. Indeed, by 2004 the Intrade market model went stratospheric in predictive accuracy as the market favorite won the electoral votes of every single state in that year’s U.S. presidential election. Meanwhile more than one respected pollster and analyst called the race for John Kerry as late as election day itself.
The betting markets saw their best triumph of 2004 in Florida. Even though a number of polls put Kerry ahead in that state, or said the race was too close to call, the betting markets consistently showed Bush would win Florida comfortably.
Indeed, if the Democrats had paid as much attention to the markets as the polls, I am convinced that the election result would have been different. They could have downsized their effort in Florida and focused their efforts more on other swing states where betting sites showed the race was much closer.
Intrade followed up in 2006 when the market favorite won each and every Senate seat up for election. Moreover, in large part the stronger the favorite, the bigger was the margin of victory.
http://www.pollingreport.com/lvw_bet.htm
Yes. so what? rounding. But I do agree that PA is closer than they are stating
Intrade has been pretty accurate in the past. But it's numbers are screwed up. How could things be this out wack so close to the election. I watch Ras' electoral map and 0's count stays at around 232 to 237, R's is now up 206 after hovering around 191. Is it time to take this bet?
That map isn’t too far from the truth. Ohio is rated 67% v. 33% for Obama, and Virginia & Colorado are both 50/50. So flip Ohio to Romney (as the trend indicates), and grant Virginia & Colorado to Romney (as polls indicate), and Romney prevails with 275 electoral votes.
Intrade founder and CEO Jon Delaney, interviewed shortly before his second attempt to scale Mount Everest. He died less than 50 meters from the summit in May 2011; he was 42 years old. RIP.
They missed the SCOTUS Healthcare decision big time.
What does that tell you?
What does that tell you?
I think almost everybody was blindsided on how that came out.
Romney to win is trading for $3.32 per share.
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743475#buy
How much will a share be worth when Romney wins? Looks like easy money.
I bought at $2.21. ;)
To me you can throw odds out the window when the sh#t hits the fan. The aerospace companies spent a decade and how many $100s of millions of dollars proving that the chance of a 2 engine failure is insignificant over water. But when it happens somewhere half way between NY and London, what do you do then. Would you rather have taken an old 747 at that point?
Hope you bought a lot. You will be one of the first winners of the Romney recovery!
How do you add money and take profit out? Do they take paypal?
Each Romney share will be worth $10 after Romney wins. Shares in 0 will be worth $0. :-)
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743475#buy
How much will a share be worth when Romney wins? Looks like easy money.
I believe $10. It looks like a very interesting way to lose easy money.
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