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InTrade Electoral Map: 0 281 R 235 Toss-Up 22
InTrade ^ | Nov 2 2012 | InTrade

Posted on 11/02/2012 8:43:20 PM PDT by jwsea55

If you are supposed to follow the money, look at InTrade's current numbers: 0 @ $6.71 R @ $3.33


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Crime/Corruption; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; election; electoralmap; romney
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1 posted on 11/02/2012 8:43:27 PM PDT by jwsea55
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To: jwsea55

Yawn
IBTZ


2 posted on 11/02/2012 8:46:59 PM PDT by Panzerlied ("We shall never surrender!")
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To: jwsea55

Those betting on Obama are going to loose a lot of money!


3 posted on 11/02/2012 8:47:21 PM PDT by vette6387
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To: jwsea55

As soon as I saw PA 82.4% to 17.7% for 0bama, I relxed and realized just how wrong this is. 100.1% ? ? ?

PA should at least be a toss up - not a lock for 0dumbo.


4 posted on 11/02/2012 8:48:48 PM PDT by airborne (MY HEROES DON'T WEAR CAPES. MY HEROES WEAR DOG TAGS ! ! !)
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To: jwsea55

So according to the bookies, we’re wasting our time even having an election?


5 posted on 11/02/2012 8:49:22 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Osama bin Laden is dead, Chrysler moved to Italy and China.)
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To: jwsea55

Considering the legal restrictions on Americans betting, this is all European and Asian money.


6 posted on 11/02/2012 8:51:31 PM PDT by Shadow44
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To: jwsea55

That’s foreign money. They have no clue what goes on in America.


7 posted on 11/02/2012 8:52:00 PM PDT by C. Edmund Wright ("GONE: The Four Year Wave That Rocked The Bubble" due out Nov 8th)
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To: jwsea55

yep, following the money will lead you right to who is spending the money to inflate the numbers..


8 posted on 11/02/2012 8:52:05 PM PDT by cardinal4 (Barack Hussein Obama, what American would elect a guy with that name less than 10 years after 9-11?)
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To: FlingWingFlyer; vette6387; airborne

Or is this one of the great bets in history?


9 posted on 11/02/2012 8:53:14 PM PDT by jwsea55
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To: C. Edmund Wright

More han that hey’re all socialists, and want Obama to win.


10 posted on 11/02/2012 8:53:23 PM PDT by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: jwsea55

Not this crap again. Sheesh.


11 posted on 11/02/2012 8:54:53 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: airborne
As soon as I saw PA 82.4% to 17.7% for 0bama, I relxed and realized just how wrong this is. 100.1% ? ? ?

PA should at least be a toss up - not a lock for 0dumbo.

Did you notice the percentages added up to more than 100%. Now that is confidence!

12 posted on 11/02/2012 8:55:21 PM PDT by jwsea55
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To: jwsea55

Well everybody, get RICH and become a 1%er. Just put your 401k on Bronco. Looks like a lock. LOL!


13 posted on 11/02/2012 8:57:30 PM PDT by eyedigress ((zOld storm chaser from the west)/?)
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To: Shadow44

It’s a legal gray area and you could bet from America if you know how to do it.


14 posted on 11/02/2012 8:57:40 PM PDT by Zombie Lincoln (Romney/Ryan 2012)
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To: airborne
As soon as I saw PA 82.4% to 17.7% for 0bama, I relxed and realized just how wrong this is. 100.1% ? ? ?

It's a rounding issue, not an error. Likely 82.35 and 17.65 both getting rounded up to the nearest tenth.

15 posted on 11/02/2012 8:58:37 PM PDT by Teacher317 ('Tis time to fear when tyrants seem to kiss.)
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To: Teacher317
It's a rounding issue, not an error. Likely 82.35 and 17.65 both getting rounded up to the nearest tenth.

That's what I thought at first but at least couple were more above rounding errors thresholds.

16 posted on 11/02/2012 9:00:37 PM PDT by jwsea55
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To: jwsea55
[It's a rounding issue, not an error. Likely 82.35 and 17.65 both getting rounded up to the nearest tenth.]

That's what I thought at first but at least couple were more above rounding errors thresholds.

Look at ND 0 4.3% and R 99.0%

17 posted on 11/02/2012 9:04:58 PM PDT by jwsea55
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To: jwsea55

I wish Fox News would challenge CNN to a bet for charity of a few million dollars and see if both accept the challenge. Money talks- BS walks.


18 posted on 11/02/2012 9:07:47 PM PDT by Mark (Don't argue with my posts. I typed while under sniper fire.)
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To: jwsea55

Yeah, and Wall Street properly reflects our economy. Union pensions and perks reflects a budget. The Bernyankme printing press reflects fiscal reality.


19 posted on 11/02/2012 9:09:10 PM PDT by Irenic (The pencil sharpener and Elmer's glue is put away-- we've lost the red wheel barrow)
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To: Mark
I wish Fox News would challenge CNN to a bet for charity of a few million dollars and see if both accept the challenge. Money talks- BS walks.

You mean you want them to put their own money on it? Or better yet, that is something they probably have built into some bill passed in the last few years.

20 posted on 11/02/2012 9:11:29 PM PDT by jwsea55
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To: jwsea55
Yeah?? talk to the bettors who bet +2500.00 on Mike Tyson when he fought Buster Douglas, and how much of a 'lock' that bet was..

There's a reason they call it gambling...not winning.

: )

21 posted on 11/02/2012 9:13:52 PM PDT by Fedupwithit ("Live Free or Die: Death is not the worst of evils" - Gen. John Stark)
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To: Fedupwithit

Right back at you :-))


22 posted on 11/02/2012 9:16:15 PM PDT by jwsea55
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To: Teacher317
Sorry Teacher...clicked on the wrong post. Should have gone to you...

[It's a rounding issue, not an error. Likely 82.35 and 17.65 both getting rounded up to the nearest tenth.]

That's what I thought at first but at least couple were more above rounding errors thresholds.

Look at ND 0 4.3% and R 99.0%

23 posted on 11/02/2012 9:20:06 PM PDT by jwsea55
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To: jwsea55

How’d InTrade do recently? Like, say, on the USSC decision on Obamacare? While we’re at it, how’d YOU do on your football picks last week?


24 posted on 11/02/2012 9:20:53 PM PDT by REDWOOD99 ("Everyone should pay taxes. Everyone should pay the same rate.)
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To: REDWOOD99

Scott Ras laughed at Intrade as a guide to who wins


25 posted on 11/02/2012 9:26:50 PM PDT by scooby321 (AMS)
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To: REDWOOD99
How’d InTrade do recently? Like, say, on the USSC decision on Obamacare? While we’re at it, how’d YOU do on your football picks last week?

Money's still in pocket. What's football BTW?

From PollingReport.com:

The power of the betting markets in assimilating the collective knowledge and wisdom of those willing to back their judgment with money has only increased in recent years as the volume of money wagered has risen dramatically. Indeed, by 2004 the Intrade market model went stratospheric in predictive accuracy as the market favorite won the electoral votes of every single state in that year’s U.S. presidential election. Meanwhile more than one respected pollster and analyst called the race for John Kerry as late as election day itself.

The betting markets saw their best triumph of 2004 in Florida. Even though a number of polls put Kerry ahead in that state, or said the race was too close to call, the betting markets consistently showed Bush would win Florida comfortably.

Indeed, if the Democrats had paid as much attention to the markets as the polls, I am convinced that the election result would have been different. They could have downsized their effort in Florida and focused their efforts more on other swing states where betting sites showed the race was much closer.

Intrade followed up in 2006 when the market favorite won each and every Senate seat up for election. Moreover, in large part the stronger the favorite, the bigger was the margin of victory.

http://www.pollingreport.com/lvw_bet.htm

26 posted on 11/02/2012 9:27:21 PM PDT by jwsea55
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To: jwsea55
Did you notice the percentages added up to more than 100%. Now that is confidence!

Yes. so what? rounding. But I do agree that PA is closer than they are stating

27 posted on 11/02/2012 9:30:11 PM PDT by plain talk
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To: plain talk
See post 23 on rounding.

Intrade has been pretty accurate in the past. But it's numbers are screwed up. How could things be this out wack so close to the election. I watch Ras' electoral map and 0's count stays at around 232 to 237, R's is now up 206 after hovering around 191. Is it time to take this bet?

28 posted on 11/02/2012 9:36:00 PM PDT by jwsea55
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To: jwsea55

That map isn’t too far from the truth. Ohio is rated 67% v. 33% for Obama, and Virginia & Colorado are both 50/50. So flip Ohio to Romney (as the trend indicates), and grant Virginia & Colorado to Romney (as polls indicate), and Romney prevails with 275 electoral votes.


29 posted on 11/02/2012 9:38:22 PM PDT by BCrago66
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To: jwsea55
Photobucket

Intrade founder and CEO Jon Delaney, interviewed shortly before his second attempt to scale Mount Everest. He died less than 50 meters from the summit in May 2011; he was 42 years old. RIP.

30 posted on 11/02/2012 9:38:48 PM PDT by FredZarguna (The Ex-SEAL Dad has asked the one important question: "Who gave the order that my son had to die?")
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To: jwsea55

They missed the SCOTUS Healthcare decision big time.


31 posted on 11/02/2012 9:38:48 PM PDT by coffeehays
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To: C. Edmund Wright
Here's a quote from an American market-

Obama 0.713
Romney 0.298

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres12_quotes.html
32 posted on 11/02/2012 9:43:06 PM PDT by WackySam (Obama got Osama just like Nixon landed on the moon.)
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To: jwsea55
Moreover, in large part the stronger the favorite, the bigger was the margin of victory.

What does that tell you?

33 posted on 11/02/2012 9:43:18 PM PDT by FredZarguna ("Post Hoc, ergo propter hoc," is no way to reason through life, son.)
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To: jwsea55
Moreover, in large part the stronger the favorite, the bigger was the margin of victory.

What does that tell you?

34 posted on 11/02/2012 9:43:39 PM PDT by FredZarguna ("Post Hoc, ergo propter hoc," is no way to reason through life, son.)
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To: coffeehays
They missed the SCOTUS Healthcare decision big time.

I think almost everybody was blindsided on how that came out.

35 posted on 11/02/2012 9:44:17 PM PDT by jwsea55
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To: jwsea55

Romney to win is trading for $3.32 per share.

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743475#buy

How much will a share be worth when Romney wins? Looks like easy money.


36 posted on 11/02/2012 9:50:50 PM PDT by UnwashedPeasant
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To: UnwashedPeasant

I bought at $2.21. ;)


37 posted on 11/02/2012 9:52:48 PM PDT by publana (Beware the olive branch extended by a Dem for it disguises a clenched fist.)
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To: FredZarguna
I love your first post. Who had the sucker bet on that one? :-)) May he RIP.

To me you can throw odds out the window when the sh#t hits the fan. The aerospace companies spent a decade and how many $100s of millions of dollars proving that the chance of a 2 engine failure is insignificant over water. But when it happens somewhere half way between NY and London, what do you do then. Would you rather have taken an old 747 at that point?

38 posted on 11/02/2012 9:53:03 PM PDT by jwsea55
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To: publana
"I bought at $2.21. ;)"

Hope you bought a lot. You will be one of the first winners of the Romney recovery!

How do you add money and take profit out? Do they take paypal?

Each Romney share will be worth $10 after Romney wins. Shares in 0 will be worth $0. :-)

39 posted on 11/02/2012 9:56:50 PM PDT by UnwashedPeasant
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To: UnwashedPeasant
Romney to win is trading for $3.32 per share.

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743475#buy

How much will a share be worth when Romney wins? Looks like easy money.

I believe $10. It looks like a very interesting way to lose easy money.

40 posted on 11/02/2012 9:56:54 PM PDT by jwsea55
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To: jwsea55
Photobucket
41 posted on 11/02/2012 9:58:01 PM PDT by FredZarguna ("Post Hoc, ergo propter hoc," is no way to reason through life, son.)
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To: publana

Good luck!!! May God favor the outcome for our Country.


42 posted on 11/02/2012 9:59:20 PM PDT by jwsea55
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To: UnwashedPeasant

They are yes or no votes. Will Romney win? Yes or No. Will Obama win is an entirely different future one can buy. One is not dependent upon the other; thus the percentages will not match because one can “predict” one without “predicting” against the other.

It pays at $10 per share when the event happens.


43 posted on 11/02/2012 9:59:27 PM PDT by publana (Beware the olive branch extended by a Dem for it disguises a clenched fist.)
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To: jwsea55

Obama is trading for $6.66 per share. No kidding.


44 posted on 11/02/2012 10:01:33 PM PDT by UnwashedPeasant
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To: UnwashedPeasant
Obama is trading for $6.66 per share. No kidding.

Are we supposed to laugh, cry or just load up?

45 posted on 11/02/2012 10:04:25 PM PDT by jwsea55
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To: UnwashedPeasant

I did buy a lot. I intended to sell after the first debate that Romney won, but R did so well, I kept letting it ride. I could have doubled+ my money at one time, but I’m now all or nothing.

They do not take PayPal because PayPal is based on a credit card. There’s some US law that one cannot place bets with an American based credit card. One has to either send a check or a wire transfer. They pay with either a check or wire... your choice.


46 posted on 11/02/2012 10:04:34 PM PDT by publana (Beware the olive branch extended by a Dem for it disguises a clenched fist.)
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To: jwsea55

I hope to lighten Soros’ pocketbook. Every time Romney starts rising to a realistic level, somebody buys and buys big against him to lower the numbers. I assume it is Soros.


47 posted on 11/02/2012 10:07:57 PM PDT by publana (Beware the olive branch extended by a Dem for it disguises a clenched fist.)
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To: WackySam

I don’t know what you mean by the American market. It is illegal to participate from inside the borders of the US.


48 posted on 11/02/2012 10:08:59 PM PDT by C. Edmund Wright ("GONE: The Four Year Wave That Rocked The Bubble" due out Nov 8th)
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To: FredZarguna
On the first day of a finance class I had with a bunch of rocketheads, the professor said the postulates for building the model we would be using the next nine months. Postulate #1: Markets are rational.

This was shortly after the 87 crash. I asked how was it rational to invest Fri and then sell monday at a 25% loss.

They found a nice seat in the corner for me. Ha ha

49 posted on 11/02/2012 10:10:36 PM PDT by jwsea55
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To: publana
I hope to lighten Soros’ pocketbook. Every time Romney starts rising to a realistic level, somebody buys and buys big against him to lower the numbers. I assume it is Soros.

That is awesome. You really don't want to take a bit off the table, though?

I wish more people would click on the 0 ads, as well. It costs them (Soros) a bit of change on every click. (Don't keep clicking, though. Your IP address will nulify a whole bunch of clicks.) A click a day can do wonders against a campaign account.

50 posted on 11/02/2012 10:17:22 PM PDT by jwsea55
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