Early voting in Ohio was down overall for Democrats. As of Tuesday, 530,813 Ohio Democrats had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot,” he wrote.
That’s down 181,275 from four years ago. But 448,357 Ohio Republicans had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot, up 75,858 from the last presidential election.
That 257,133-vote swing almost wipes out Mr. Obama’s 2008 Ohio victory margin of 262,224. Since most observers expect Republicans to win Election Day turnout, these early vote numbers point toward a Romney victory in Ohio.
McCain lost the early voting in Ohio in 2008 but won the late voting by 3 points. I can’t see how Romney will do worse or even be the same as McCain’s on November 6 given the GOP voter enthusiasm now compared to 2008.
Also, Romney has consistently led among independents in most October surveys ( that includes Ohio ).
When a sitting President cannot reach 50%, his re-election chances are greatly diminished.
Not good news for Dems either.
I agree Ohio looks good. Iowa and Wisconsin not so much based on indies and early voting. And yet Michigan and Minnesota are within 3. The whole picture is out of focus. The numbers don’t track from state to state. The nationalnumbers don’t track with the state numbers and no poll tracks with another poll.Both Pew and Gallup do have ROmney with a 6 to 7 point lead among the 20% who voted though.
I think Romney will win Ohio because McCain got 47% there and the entusiasm for Romney/Ryan is infinitely higher but the polls are a mishmash even accounting for dem turnout bias.