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Nate Silver Ups The Ante On Historic Wager Offer With Joe Scarborough (Who will win the elections?)
Business Insider ^ | 11/01/2012 | Joe Weisenthal

Posted on 11/01/2012 8:32:50 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

Punditry vs. numbers!

Old school journalists vs. data-driven wonks! Scouts vs. Moneyball!

Nate Silver (who has become increasingly embattled for his confident assessments of Obama's chances) just offered Joe Scarborough a wager that will redefine the future of journalism.


(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: elections; natesilver; scarborough; wager

1 posted on 11/01/2012 8:32:59 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Nate Silver is going to eat the biggest plate of crow on November 7th that he’s ever seen.


2 posted on 11/01/2012 8:36:58 AM PDT by WashingtonSource
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To: SeekAndFind

“Redefine the future of journalism”?

Lol. Ok.


3 posted on 11/01/2012 8:37:24 AM PDT by Psycho_Bunny (Thought Puzzle: Describe Islam without using the phrase "mental disorder" more than four times.)
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To: SeekAndFind

What’s the big deal? Why don’t they make it $100,000? That would be more impressive.


4 posted on 11/01/2012 8:38:03 AM PDT by Castigar
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To: SeekAndFind

Joe Scarborough is a piece of crap as well, I think he will vote for Obama,,,He is a POS period


5 posted on 11/01/2012 8:39:02 AM PDT by Friendofgeorge (ASARAH PALIN 2012 OR BUST)
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To: SeekAndFind

Donate money to the Red Cross? Why not just set fire to it?

How about donating to the Salvation Army instead?


6 posted on 11/01/2012 8:41:01 AM PDT by agere_contra ("Government creates nothing" - Romney, 2012)
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To: SeekAndFind

There’s your proof: Nate Silver is not an objective pollster, he’s an Obama activist. Compare with Scott Rasmussen, one of the few bona fide objective pollsters, who when asked by Hannity last night who is going to win the election he diplomatically stated something like (paraphrased) “I don’t know, and people who think they do are either delusional or self-promoting.” I actually sensed that was a shot across the bow at Dick Morris, who was on BOR just earlier. My emotions about this election are tied to Rasmussen’s data, for better or worse.


7 posted on 11/01/2012 8:41:09 AM PDT by BlueStateRightist
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To: Psycho_Bunny
Lol. Ok.
no doubt this is as far from journalism as you can get. I may have to change my opinion of Silver, I guess this is his old online poker self showing up, betting on the odds. At least whoever loses the Red Cross wins.
8 posted on 11/01/2012 8:43:18 AM PDT by HenryArmitage (it was not meant that we should voyage far.)
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To: Friendofgeorge

He really is a pos.


9 posted on 11/01/2012 8:45:27 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: HenryArmitage
I guess this is his old online poker self showing up

Is there any record of this guy Silver being any good at poker? Not that aggregating other people's polls has anything to do with poker, of course.

10 posted on 11/01/2012 8:47:14 AM PDT by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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To: SeekAndFind
I'm thinking it's a 53% (Romney) to 46% (Obama) win, and maybe 54% to 45%, with a Romney electoral college total of around 310, maybe 315.

5 day to go before Fundamental Restoration returns to America!

The Trunaround of 2012
http://www.jeffhead.com/turnaround2012.htm

Here's my three Romney win scenarios.

Worst Case Romney Win:

Likely Case Romney Win:

Best Case Romney Win:


11 posted on 11/01/2012 8:49:23 AM PDT by Jeff Head ( Freedom is not free, never has been, never will be (www.dragonsfuryseries.com))
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To: Jeff Head

I am with you on the worst case. But, really, that is my more likely. CO polling consistently with Romney ahead, and that means something for a state that is perenially democratic. Wisconsin tied, which probably means that Romney is actually ahead. Iowa is tougher. Iowa will be a hard stated to garner. Still have hopes for Ohio, but am afraid of voting irregularities. Slim hope for Minn, and PA.


12 posted on 11/01/2012 8:54:31 AM PDT by job
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To: Zhang Fei

only what he claims. He stated that he got into political prediction because after selling his baseball formula work he earned a humble living playing online poker. After it was made illegal he started trying to figure out the odds of the “b@$-—ds that voted for it would be kicked out”


13 posted on 11/01/2012 9:00:30 AM PDT by HenryArmitage (it was not meant that we should voyage far.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Take that bet, Joe! The Red Cross needs the money!


14 posted on 11/01/2012 9:12:18 AM PDT by Mr. Silverback (Reagan @ only 39/Mondale +5/Dukakis +17/McCain +3...panic is unwarranted. So is complacency.)
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To: WashingtonSource

“Nate Silver is going to eat the biggest plate of crow on November 7th that he’s ever seen.”

Nat Silver will make excuses while his boss, the New York Times, states how proud they are of him and what a valuable asset he is to journalism and how he was probably right but Republicans stole it in Ohio.


15 posted on 11/01/2012 9:14:34 AM PDT by DesScorp
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To: SeekAndFind

Not good enough. Silver should offer odds based on his “model’s” prediction. If he has Obama at 75%, that’s 3:1 odds he needs to offer.


16 posted on 11/01/2012 9:19:18 AM PDT by kevkrom (If a wise man has an argument with a foolish man, the fool only rages or laughs...)
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To: SeekAndFind

BTW, notice how Scarborough says it could go either way and Silver insists he bet on Romney. Heh!


17 posted on 11/01/2012 9:21:52 AM PDT by Mr. Silverback (Reagan @ only 39/Mondale +5/Dukakis +17/McCain +3...panic is unwarranted. So is complacency.)
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To: kevkrom
Not good enough. Silver should offer odds based on his “model’s” prediction. If he has Obama at 75%, that’s 3:1 odds he needs to offer.

Actually... today Silver has the odds at 80%. So, the bet should be 4:1! :-)

18 posted on 11/01/2012 9:26:45 AM PDT by SomeCallMeTim ( The best minds are not in government. If any were, business would hire them)
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To: kevkrom

Agreed!


19 posted on 11/01/2012 9:27:59 AM PDT by Mr. Silverback (Reagan @ only 39/Mondale +5/Dukakis +17/McCain +3...panic is unwarranted. So is complacency.)
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To: WashingtonSource

RE: Nate Silver is going to eat the biggest plate of crow on November 7th that he’s ever seen.

Look at the bright side, either way, the Red Cross gets $1000.


20 posted on 11/01/2012 9:38:48 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: Castigar
"What’s the big deal? Why don’t they make it $100,000? That would be more impressive."

Exactly. In poker, you get a bad bluff, time to flush the weasel. Push it out of Silver's comfort zone.

21 posted on 11/01/2012 9:39:07 AM PDT by StAnDeliver (2008 + IN, NE1, NC, FL, VA, OH, CO, IA, NH = 285EV)
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To: agere_contra
Donate money to the Red Cross? Why not just set fire to it?

I've seen a couple of posters mention something along these lines...what's wrong with the Red Cross?

22 posted on 11/01/2012 9:39:07 AM PDT by Joseph Harrolds
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Comment #23 Removed by Moderator

To: Joseph Harrolds

Red Cross = scumbags that steal a good share of every dollar donated.

I wouldn’t pi$$ in their ear if their head was on fire.


24 posted on 11/01/2012 9:47:34 AM PDT by Beagle8U (Free Republic -- One stop shopping ....... It's the Conservative Super WalMart for news .)
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To: snarkytart

Am afraid S E Cupp is close to reaching that same status...Chris Cristie whom I never liked, surpassed that status last few days

He already had that status in my book because of his hateful attacks on Gov Palin

Joe Scarborough (pos) said prior to Romney selecting Ryan as his running mate said this.....

“if Romney picks Ryan I will be more excited about voting Republican than I have been in more than 20 years” That was word for word basically what he said.

He only said it because at the time...It looked clearly to him that Romney would NOT pick Ryan, that was the only reason he said it...

He is currently hiding his excitement, he was sure hiding it well when he was on the rope line with Obama the other day...SARC


25 posted on 11/01/2012 1:15:26 PM PDT by Friendofgeorge (ASARAH PALIN 2012 OR BUST)
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To: Jeff Head

One minor quibble with your worst-case scenario: My gut feeling is that Ohio would go red before Wisconsin. That’s just my intuition, though.


26 posted on 11/01/2012 8:26:41 PM PDT by Slings and Arrows (You can't have IngSoc without an Emmanuel Goldstein.)
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To: SeekAndFind

I’ll take a grand if he offers 3-1 like his model says. I’ll give a grand to the Red Cross if Obama wins and he can give 3 grand to Priests for Life if Romney wins.


27 posted on 11/01/2012 8:34:02 PM PDT by jwalsh07
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To: Slings and Arrows

We’ll know five days from now by this time.

Here’s an “Uninstall Obama App,” we are going to apply on Novemebr 6th, and it cannot be hacked.

Pass it around!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFdbrblWQ5o


28 posted on 11/01/2012 10:04:29 PM PDT by Jeff Head ( Freedom is not free, never has been, never will be (www.dragonsfuryseries.com))
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To: Jeff Head
We’ll know five days from now by this time.

That we shall.

Here’s an “Uninstall Obama App,” we are going to apply on Novemebr 6th, and it cannot be hacked.

I figured he was malware.

29 posted on 11/01/2012 10:15:02 PM PDT by Slings and Arrows (You can't have IngSoc without an Emmanuel Goldstein.)
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