Skip to comments.Rasmussen Daily: THU 11/01: R:49 O:47 Obama -11: 5 DAYS TO GO!
Posted on 11/01/2012 7:09:08 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and three percent (3%) remain undecided. See daily tracking history.
Matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update).
NOTE: Rasmussen Reports is based in Asbury Park, New Jersey and we were hit hard by Hurricane Sandy. However, our survey interview calls are placed from a different location, so data gathering was able to continue. Today, we will release only a limited amount of data. The Rasmussen Challenge is also on hold until next week due to the weather.
New surveying for Monday night finds Romney ahead of the president 50% to 47% in the key swing state of Colorado. That marks little change from a week ago, and the state remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections.
In Wisconsin, surveying from Monday night finds the race remains tied at 49%, just like last week. Wisconsin, too, is still a Toss-Up and is critical to Romneys fortunes if he loses Ohio.
(Excerpt) Read more at m.rasmussenreports.com ...
Here we go! 5 days left.
This sample has 2 days of post Sandy polling. This data also (allegedly) has 2 days of polling where Rasmussen polled 1000 people daily instead of his usual 500
No internals are available yet, so we cannot calculate right now what the "D+" number is. When we last got internals, Rasmussen was using D+3
So, the race remains broadly stable, outside of statistical noise
I look forward to studying the internal data (along with nhwingut) when it is made available to analyze the internal trends
Here is what I am looking for in the internal data:
1. The lead the Governor has with Independents 2. His gender "gap" 3. Right Track/Wrong Track 4. Overall job approval and approval index 5. Number of Hispanics/Asians voting "R" 6. The percentage of the Republican base that the Governor is getting
More soon. Stay tuned!
Is Gallup announcing a poll today?
Stable Ras ping!
Good to see it stable. Liked it better when Romney was sitting at 50%, but absolutely love to see Obama still sitting well south of 50. Seems to show the lead is steady.
Was actually sweating this one today to see if it showed any fundamental changes with the storm/campaign lull. Seems to back up many of our views that this race moved fundamentally to Romney in October, and those that made up their mind are sticking with their decision.
I’m going to name my next dead cat Sandy and see how she bounces.
It will be interesting to see the internals. It does not appear that Sandy has created some magical bounce for Obama.
The jobs report out tomorrow might have an impact, depending on what it says.
No, they are not (as per their blog).
They did not poll Tue and Wed. They will start polling today.
They may not (still unsure) release a poll till Monday. In their blog it seemed like they wanted to collect a four day rolling sample
It’s gonna be a bumpy ride for the next few days! Hang tight. Also I’ve contributed to the campaign and would like to make calls (from TX) but I wonder if I’ll end up being more a hindrance. I know I hate calls from campaigns and wonder if anything else anyone would recommend I do for the next 5 days. If it’s calls, I’ll call. I have tomorrow off - instead of biting my fingernails and staring at early voting/polls/freerepublic, I’d like to do something to help.
1) Romney’s 4th day at 49 percent signals a slight down shift in his support.
2) Obama’s stuck at 47%.
3) If the race stays where it is, and Rasmussen’s turnout model is correct, Obama is going to lose the popular vote.
Gallup will not report today because they did not poll either Tues or Wednesday. They announced they will begin polling again today so we should see the numbers begin again tomorrow.
Too close for comfort! No wonder the LSM doesn’t want to release those emails which show Obama gave the stand down order in the Benghazi attack.
Do not understand why Ras is using a D+3 turnout model when all the other pollsters show far greater enthusiasm amongst Republicans versus Dems.
Team RR has a “call from home” program, I believe
Let me check and get back to you
Team OB has been shocked by the high level of “touch” Team RR has done so far
The whole story of the “ground game” and GOTV advantage for the Democrats has died
I feel the same way. These numbers are a relief more than anything.
I didn’t really expect any and I don’t foresee a late Obama surge in the last days of the election; it didn’t happen for McCain and it won’t happen for O.
47% is his ceiling, 42% is his possible low floor and 45% is likely where its going to be on Election Day.
Two things to keep in mind:
1. The media outlets all declared the Wisconsin Recall was too close to call, and we all know how that turned out.
2. The polls showed Kerry up in Ohio by 5 points in the days leading up to the 2004 election, and Bush won Ohio.
and lose the election...
It's coming down to a reversal of 2008, which was 53.9% Obama, 45.7% McCain.
Michael Graham @MGraham969
All polls agree: Mitt winning Indies, GOP vote more intense, Obama losing early voting, support capped at 47%. Obama wins...HOW?
Which makes me think the Marist poll’s finding for IA could be off; they do reveal that Romney is very likely ahead in NH and WI and he’ll win both states Tuesday!
Nice! I liked it better with R at 50 and 3 pts ahead but it’s better than being down two like zerO is with only five days left.
Rasmussen also announcing today they polled Wisconsin again and releasing today figures again of Romney 49% Obama 49%, not good for Obama is it....
Obama is visiting Wisc 4 times from Today until Tuesday, that ought to tell you something.
The Governor is 4 ahead with Independents
The Governor is 6 behind with women
Right Track/Wrong Track: 38/56
Right Track/Wrong Track (Asian/Hispanic): 43/48
Right Track/Wrong Track (Independent): 31/58
Approval Index for Independents: -21%
Percentage of Republican Vote that the Governor is getting: 89%
Hispanic/Asian vote for the Governor: 35%
Just glad Romney’s still up 2. At least he’s not down.
Up 4 with indies? Where was he about a week ago?
What do you think the internals mean? Indy number scares me as does the asian hispanic right track wrong track.
In double digits, let me check. I think about +12 or so
Well that explains the margin shrinkage. Wonder what could have caused such a shift??
I anticipate an incremental move to D+2 or D+1 in the next few days with Raz explaining that his polling shows the turnout race "tightening". That would add a point or two to the current R+2.
In any case, Rasmussen is going to come out with the number that he thinks is going to win him the "Most Accurate Pollster" again this year.
Homosexual activist Nate Silver up to 79% chance of obama winning....
The race was always going to tighten a little.
But no presidential candidate in the lead in early November has ever gone on to lose on Election Day.
Williard Mitt Romney will be our 45th President and you can take that to the bank.
It’s been explained a million times on here but Rasmussen’s indie number fluctuates from double to single digits in just one polling cycle. It’s one of his less stable/reliable numbers. One time it went from +12 to +6 in one day (something like that). Maybe the expert poll analysts around here can tell us why this is happening????
What might this information from Mark Murray of NBC News, @mmurraypolitics, mean?
Romney’s final sked: THU — VA; FRI — WI, OH; SAT — IA, NH, CO; SUN: —TDB; MON NH
Obama’s final sked: THU — WI, NV, CO; FRI — OH; SAT — OH, WI, IA, VA; SUN — NH, FL, OH, CO; MON — WI, OH, IA
In what poll?
Nate Silver is living in a fantasy world.
His projection - take it for a grain of salt - rests on the assumption that this election will be a repeat of 2008.
I think he’s fool but he’s entitled to be one!
Very interesting... That Indy number is scary. But, that could well be a Sandy bounce that will do away quickly.
Sure hope so, anyway.
THANKS Gov Christie!
lol who CARES! I’m about as interested in his opinion as I am of hearing about INTRADE for the gazillionth time.
What gives this man such credibility? Oooo he predicted all the states O would win in 2008? Gee what a genius. Even Rove got that right. It was pretty clear to see last couple of weeks McCain was toast and what states were going for zerO.
What’s Silver’s track record for 2010??
All the polls show Romney ahead - even leftist ones. He will be overperform by about 5+.
The media is so in love with Obama they can’t see the big picture in front of them or rather they don’t want to see it.
They can believe all they want he’ll win. The polls and the math say the opposite. They are as deluded as Freepers were in 2008 when they concocted fantasy scenarios of a possible McCain victory.
All the wishful thinking in the world isn’t going to make Obama a winner!
Looking at recent presdiential election history, the incumbent typically gets one percent and the challneger gets the rest. So with 49-47 Romney, the final popular vote should be close to 52 (51 and some change because of minor party voters) and 48 for the worst US president in history. This type of popular vote lead is not consistent with a concurrent EC loss.
It’s an erotic attachment to obama. That’s all there is to it.
NOW...all that said....while we are all hoping for a blow out, it could be close on Tuesday. We shall see. I’m going to go absolutely nuts if PA falls to Romney early! (And hoping that prick Casey goes down!). If THAT happens, it is going to be a fun night! (Actually, even if obama prevails by say 2 points in PA....that will be a good sign).
Looks like Romney is branching out, going to WI, IA, NH, and CO. States that would have been considered safe or leaning D a few months ago. Obama is trying to hold onto his base. That’s how I see it.
I like the fact that Sunday is wide open...Romney can go wherever it looks necessary. If we see a NV, OR, MN in there its mandate hunting :)
Don't doubt me. This will be a Chik-Fil-A landslide election.
I love your optimism. I’m a tad more cynical. I don’t see PA turning RED or being within a couple of points. They always seem within reach then blamo on election day they go blue. I still hope though. In reality I think zerO still takes, PA, MI, and NV.
I believe fag boy Silver predicted a GOP gain of about 35 seats in 2010. Way under reality.
I believe that he called MA for Brown in that special Senate election.
So, his record is mixed. You are quite correct: it didn’t take a genius to see McCain was toast in 2008. In fact, this goes back to 2006 when Ohio elected a Dem governor. Many of us said at that time that the next Prez was a D. And so it was. Sure Silver got that right. But so did a lot of us obscure watchers.
I agree with all here who say that 2012 for Romney sort of “feels” like 2008 for obama.
As one wisely put it, “who would we think is winning if there were no polls?” Clearly, Romney.
And...the polls buttress that possibility. According to the polls (not Silver of course...), Romney might win.
But if you look beyond them, it is clear: Romney has the momentum. He is doing better, and that should drive him across the finish line. He “might” actually win big....we sure hope so. That possibility is consistent with the data plus the feel. It might turn out to be 1980 again after all.....
The most interesting number in internals is that the Presidential approval index is -21 with Independents
People typically vote in line with approval numbers
The President’s approval numbers with Independents are: 44/52. In other words, 8% swing TOWARDS the Governor if you want to use these numbers as a proxy for the final vote
So, if the Governor wins Independents by 8, gets 90%+ of the Republican vote, then he should still win even if we have a 2008 turnout
The assumption I make here is that 10% of Registered Democrats vote for the Governor, but only 5% of Registered Republicans vote for the President. This is based on STRONG Disapprove number of 10% for Democrats of the President
The other assumption is that the 4% undecided “Other” vote breaks 3-1 for the Governor. This is the norm for a challenger
Here is the math:
D/R/I 2008 Turnout: 39/32/29
President’s Final Numbers: (39 * 0.9) + (32 * 0.05) (29 * 0.45) = 49.75
Governor’s Final Number: (32 * 0.95) + (39 * 0.1) +(29 * 0.55) = 50.25
Now keep in mind this is using the 2008 model!!! Not the 2010 model, not the 2004 model, not the Rasmussen 2012 turnout model, not the Gallup 2012 turnout model
My point above is that even if I plug in 2008 numbers, the Governor will get by with a squeaker
Hope that helps!
He sure stands to lose a LOT of credibility if he keeps his current stance and is proven wrong by a R+ turnout.
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