[Netz]

Is the GOP relying on a sudden, undocumented, “surge of enthusiastic Republican voters” to wash Obama from the White House? This is not a sound policy. Is it based on wishfull thinking or do pundits really perceive a mass GOP vote? How realistic is this?

[ez]

It is based on the last election (2010) and early voting statistics...not wishful thinking.

[Evil Slayer]

Obama = Carter. Obama worse than Carter. Romney = Reagan (sort of). Result = tsunami vote against Obama.

[fortheDeclaration]

It is documented, they just don't want to believe it is coming.

The same thing happened in 2010 and in the WI recall, they were amazed at the GOP vote.

[Lady Heron]

Internals!

Look at the internals of the polls that have Obama even or up one and you tell me that the dems have the same enthusiasm or more than 2008. Please, in what reality is that going to happen today. You can already see in early voting that Obama does not have the same mojo.

Then take into account when they are polling blue states they get 8-11% telling the pollster they are undecided 5 days out from the election...tell me in what year you have seen that...Uh no, at most this last week, there is 1-3% undecided and you have a lot of people who are not telling pollsters they are either not going to vote or refusing to tell that pollster in a dem state who they are going to vote for. I would be a little worried about those votes if I was a dem.

The next little trick you need to look for is how much they over sample women.

One more thing to really get you to think about momentum....when a presidents party looses big in mid-term elections he almost always goes on to loose.

[LibLieSlayer]

Mitt will stomp obama’s arse. Why do you believe those that you know for an absolute fact have lied to you about everything in America and around the world for the past 4 years? Who do you trust... la slimes... ny slimes... cbs... abc... nbc... ppp... tipp... a political science class at the University of Iowa and all of their dim allies that own and run those entities... or Rasmussen and Gallup who are independent businesses with many years of polling experience? We have shown you the internals... we have explained how these polls are skewed for political reasons... GREAT POLITICAL SCIENTISTS like Michael Barone have stated clearly that Mitt will win... if you like supersition... Republicans have not lost a Presidential election since 1840 that happens on November 6... the University of Colorado have a formula that has NEVER failed and they say Mitt will win... Karl Rove says Mitt will win! NOTHING in this life is certain but it is better to be where Mitt is than being a failed sitting president at 47% max... so why with all the negative vibes?

LLS

[Thane_Banquo]

National polls show Romney winning independents by double digits. Large sample polls by Gallup and Rasmussen also show the turnout this year will be more Republican than Democrat.

However, pollsters still cling to turnout assumptions that are not simply equal to the Democrat 2008 turnout numbers (the Democrats’ high water mark historically), but well in excess of that number.

You win independents by double digits, and you’re looking at a landslide.

[catnipman]

“Is the GOP relying on a sudden, undocumented, “surge of enthusiastic Republican voters” to wash Obama from the White House? This is not a sound policy. Is it based on wishfull thinking or do pundits really perceive a mass GOP vote? How realistic is this? “

Nope. The GOP is basing its strategy on private, internal polling, which is conducted to paint an accurate picture with the aim of optimally directing resources and strategy, and paying no attention whatsoever to public polling whose primary function is to either 1.) Help Obama win the election by misleading and confusing people, 2.) Keep people tuning in to the media outlets because the election is “close”, or 3.) Both of the above.