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MA Poll: Warren: 53, Brown: 46
Townhall ^ | 10/30/2012 | Daniel Doherty

Posted on 10/30/2012 5:40:40 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

I’m now beginning to think that the Boston Globe poll released on Monday was probably an outlier:

A new poll released today shows Elizabeth Warren leading Senator Scott Brown by 7 percentage points, one of the Democratic challenger’s largest leads in any poll taken in recent months.

The poll, by Suffolk University/News 7, was released a day after a Boston Globe poll showed a much tighter race, with Brown leading by 2 percentage points. The Globe poll showed an exact tie when including responses from voters who did not express an initial preference but said they were leaning in one direction.

The Suffolk poll showed Warren leading with 53 percent of the vote compared with 46 percent for Brown. The poll of 600 likely voters, interviewed by phone, was taken Oct. 25 through Oct. 28 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

“Elizabeth Warren is riding a final wave of momentum to the US Senate,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston, in a news release.

Alas, it only gets worse:

The Washington Post, Rasmussen Reports and the Rothenberg Political Report all consider the race to be leaning in Warren's favor. As of Monday afternoon, The New York Times' FiveThirtyEight blog called the seat "safe Democratic" and gave Warren a 95.2 percent chance of winning, with 52.1 percent of the vote to 46.6 percent for Brown.

FiveThirtyEight's election forecasting model uses polling data, demographics and historical analysis to predict election results. The website was started by statistician Nate Silver in 2008 and purchased by The New York Times in 2010.

As I wrote yesterday, Senator Brown pulled out of Tuesday’s fourth and final debate out of respect for the victims of Massachusetts and their families affected by Hurricane Sandy, thus impelling Elizabeth Warren to quickly followed suit. But will the head-to-head matchup be rescheduled? Possibly:

The debate sponsors, a consortium of news outlets, said they were working with the campaigns to try to reschedule the debate, though with the election one week away, time was short. Ms. Warren issued a statement Tuesday afternoon saying she believed a debate “should occur” and that she would be available Thursday night, putting the ball in Mr. Brown’s court.

I suspect Republicans in Massachusetts are hoping that the debate will be rescheduled sometime in the next few days. Why? One reason is because it was around this time two years ago -- about a week before the special election in January 2010 -- that Scott Brown muttered his now-famous “people’s seat” rejoinder during a debate against Democratic Senate candidate Martha Coakley. This impromptu remark in some ways tilted the race in Scott Brown’s favor by giving his campaign some unexpected momentum precisely when he needed it.

Two years later, however, at a time when many pollsters are now openly asserting that Scott Brown will lose his bid for re-election, what could be more beneficial than chalking up a solid -- and perhaps even game-changing -- debate performance a few days before the election? Nothing. This is why one hopes -- if the weather permits -- the two candidates will have an opportunity to take the stage one final time before the vast majority of Massachusetts voters head to the polls.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Massachusetts
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; brown; massachusetts; warren

1 posted on 10/30/2012 5:40:40 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Paleologos was just on BOR and stands by the poll results, stating the independent women and unionists are moving towards Fauxcahontas. No big surprise in the People’s Republic of MA.


2 posted on 10/30/2012 5:45:06 PM PDT by BlueStateRightist
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To: SeekAndFind

With Massachusetts bent on going mad, what is a mother to do.


3 posted on 10/30/2012 5:45:33 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (cat dog, cat dog, alone in the world is a little cat dog)
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To: SeekAndFind

Starting to get legitimately worried about the senate now. Mourdock is is in trouble and now the commiehawk is going to beat Brown?

Akin’s stunning turn-around might have all been for nothing is these guys don’t get their asses in gear. We cannot allow dingy Reid to retain majority rule.


4 posted on 10/30/2012 5:52:13 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: BlueStateRightist

Scott was well behind last time...he could still pull this out....hope and prayers....


5 posted on 10/30/2012 5:53:01 PM PDT by cherry
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To: SeekAndFind
As I've been pointing out for a good 10 years, polls are less and less reliable all the time. This year we had PEW research release an article indicating that virtually all the telephone polling systems are working with just a 9% response rate. They call 1000 people, they get 90 to answer.

A small group of dedicated fanatics can subvert that polling situation simply by ALWAYS answering the phone.

Gallup has been asking a question about sexual preference for the last year. They now say that about 3.5% of their respondents are homosexuals ~ or claim to be.

Guarantee one of their first adjustments to their data to improve it is to simply exclude any answers from homosexuals.

Not that the gay guys answer every phone call, or make the callbacks indicated by almost every poll these days, but they do ~ as long as they know Gallup is going to ask them that question.

Professionals in the abortion business also do this, as do the feminazis.

That right there can explain any lead Warren might have in MA ~ the polls are simply wrong!

6 posted on 10/30/2012 5:53:37 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: HiTech RedNeck

Looks good on Brown. i get all the Boston channels and Brown’s campaign is pushing an ad bragging about his support for homosexual “marriage”, abortion and Obama’s female judicial appointments. A Democrat win in MA will just replace one Dem with another. Brown wiped his feet on the Tea Party as soon as they helped get him elected.


7 posted on 10/30/2012 5:53:41 PM PDT by littleharbour
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To: Viennacon

Mourdock will win.


8 posted on 10/30/2012 5:54:45 PM PDT by TMA62 (Al Sharpton - The North Korea of race relations)
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To: SeekAndFind

“I suspect Republicans in Massachusetts are hoping that the debate will be rescheduled sometime in the next few days.”

Brown has just announced he will not be debating the Fake Indian Granny again.


9 posted on 10/30/2012 5:54:55 PM PDT by BlatherNaut
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To: SeekAndFind
Unbelievable this could happen, but considering the state, maybe it's not so unbelievable......

God help us if the whole country goes the way of Massachusetts.

10 posted on 10/30/2012 5:54:57 PM PDT by ducttape45
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To: HiTech RedNeck

My theory is that there;s been too much lead consumptions what with all the older homes in MA.


11 posted on 10/30/2012 5:56:54 PM PDT by JaguarXKE (If my Fluffy had a puppy, it would look like the puppy Obama ate!r)
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To: BlatherNaut

You don’t turn down a debate if you think it will give a chance to win.

I thought Warren wants a debate...hmmmm

From LI
http://legalinsurrection.com/2012/10/maybe-mass-senate-candidates-know-something-we-dont-about-polling/


12 posted on 10/30/2012 5:58:09 PM PDT by Kolath
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To: SeekAndFind
Regaining the “Kennedy seat” is a religious duty for the marxists. It’s like an ancient religious artifact, like the holy grail to Christians.
13 posted on 10/30/2012 5:58:29 PM PDT by oldbrowser (An empty chair attracts a stadium full of empty chairs.)
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To: littleharbour

Very funny, except the nominal party breakdown in the Senate *will* matter. Who gets control of committees or whatnot.


14 posted on 10/30/2012 5:58:33 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (cat dog, cat dog, alone in the world is a little cat dog)
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To: littleharbour
Brown wiped his feet on the Tea Party as soon as they helped get him elected

That is true, I remember that, and I contacted his election campaign and relayed to them how upset I and many others were, and that they wouldn't get another penny from me and many others. Guess his double-cross came back to bite him.

15 posted on 10/30/2012 5:58:49 PM PDT by ducttape45
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To: SeekAndFind

Brown was swept in in a wave and it would be amazing if he wonin a Presidential year. He just can’t get far enoughto the left to outmarx Pocohantas better known Lying To Your Face and Libs Love It.


16 posted on 10/30/2012 5:59:38 PM PDT by jwalsh07
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Hmmm. If the campaigns’ internal polling was as most of the public polls have indicated, with Warren solidly ahead, you would expect the opposite.

From the LI article (money shot)

Warren’s campaign has been extremely cautious to date, so you would expect it to sit on the lead. Why risk a game changer at another debate? Conversely, if Brown’s internal polling told him he needed a Hail Mary pass, he should be demanding the final debate be rescheduled.

Warren is acting as if she needs the Hail Mary pass, while Brown is in a prevent defense.

Maybe the candidates are acting irrationally, or maybe they know something we don’t.


17 posted on 10/30/2012 6:00:11 PM PDT by Kolath
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To: HiTech RedNeck
the Senate was NEVER predicted to fall into pub hands....its only been the last week or so that that possibility arose....

I hope it happens...

if you got any money to spare, send some into your favorite candidate....

we need to push these guys over the finish line....

18 posted on 10/30/2012 6:00:40 PM PDT by cherry
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To: muawiyah

If someone wheedled me into answering a political poll, I would hang up on them if they asked me what my sexual preference was, maybe after yelling why they cared whether I scrod my cat or dog.


19 posted on 10/30/2012 6:01:24 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (cat dog, cat dog, alone in the world is a little cat dog)
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To: cherry

Getting Harry Reid to go away would be such a joy.


20 posted on 10/30/2012 6:02:11 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (cat dog, cat dog, alone in the world is a little cat dog)
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To: SeekAndFind
They call 600 people, they get 54 to answer. Each response is then worth 1.85%. 2 people is 3.7% and 3 people is 7.5%

A poll where 3 people can make a 7% difference really isn't all that tight is it.

21 posted on 10/30/2012 6:02:26 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: SeekAndFind

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/10/30/final-brown-warren-debate-might-happen-by-thursday-as-new-poll-shows-tie/


22 posted on 10/30/2012 6:02:34 PM PDT by cynwoody
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To: BlueStateRightist

It’s so sad that liberals just don’t expect even the slightest shred of integrity in their public officials.


23 posted on 10/30/2012 6:03:02 PM PDT by henkster (If you let them do it to you, you got yourself to blame.)
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To: muawiyah

When I studied poli sci, when dinosaurs walked the earth, poll companies would pursue their quarry almost to the ends of the earth in order to keep the result scientific. Now it’s who answers the phone?


24 posted on 10/30/2012 6:04:07 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (cat dog, cat dog, alone in the world is a little cat dog)
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To: BlueStateRightist

She is a perfect liar for the DNC. But it’s not much of a loss to conservatives if Brown takes a hike.


25 posted on 10/30/2012 6:04:16 PM PDT by SaraJohnson
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To: HiTech RedNeck

Oh! Stop your nonsense! Union workers are being threatened with their jobs and are fined $150 per if they refuse. The only people voting for Fauxchahontas are from Beacon Hill, Cambridge and the Pioneer valley which happens to be the Lesbian Capitol of the Universe. (western MA) where the the first pink Governor has his vacay manse... you know , he too, wants to be with his peeps.

Scott is very popular her despite all of the out of state money (33M) in one month from out of state for Granny Warren.

He has to be polite because she is female but,’ take my word’ for it as Liz would say..she is a blinking, blinded, bumbilicious boob.

We do not like her.

Word.


26 posted on 10/30/2012 6:06:46 PM PDT by acapesket
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To: SeekAndFind

Internals please ? It’s a wave year, even in Mass. Brown is important.


27 posted on 10/30/2012 6:09:57 PM PDT by chiller (Sky is the limit with max T-Partiers in the House and Senate to stifle the RINOs)
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To: HiTech RedNeck
The proliferation of forms of cheap bandwidth made it possible to use computer driven dialers to actually do statistically valid random sample phone calls ~ using any sort of matrix or universe you wanted.

It's great stuff ~ much better than the old personal interview stuff ~ but the problem is there's been a disaster. They call it CALLER ID and when you see who is calling you decide whether or not you want to answer.

As a consequence actual responses as a percentage of attempts have fallen in the toilet.

This is the reason the polling companies and universities haven't been all that excited about explaining or changing or even dealing with the questions folks raise about what they call 'overpolling' ~ like when you are up to your neck in alligators who cares whether it's puppies or chickens being tossed in to feed the critters.

BTW, several months back I realized that I'd been contacted by 5 separate polling companies ~ as shown on my caller ID list ~ and I didn't call a single one of them back.

So, how random a system is the random dialer process? Might have something to do with my having a name that's something like the 58,000 or so most common name in America ~ they want to get diversity so they always select for us ~ and not MR JONES

28 posted on 10/30/2012 6:17:37 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: SeekAndFind

True conservatism has, already, lost, both, the ‘12 Massachusetts U.S. Senate race and the race for ‘12 POTUS! Also, the next Congress will have way too many leftists in it, from both major political parties, no matter what the official results are after next Tuesday. How is the U.S. not headed, even more, into third world socialism, no matter what happens next Tuesday?


29 posted on 10/30/2012 6:25:12 PM PDT by johnthebaptistmoore (The world continues to be stuck in a "all leftist, all of the time" funk. BUNK THE FUNK!)
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To: ducttape45

sad news for ya.. Scottie was never a tea Partier. BUT you must remember that the reason we all voted for him was to kill Obama care.
Scott would have voted to kill it if the Senate had not pulled a fast one and allowed Dead Ted’s usurper/suckup...appointed Senator Paul Kirk... Kennedy bootlicker to that seat! The State Legislature had to twist itself into freaking pretzels to make that happen prior to the LEGALLY scheduled election between Marsha Coakley and Scott Brown.

So if you are gonna be pissed off, be pissed off at the Senate of the US. Harry Reid purposely steered this Obamacare vote so that Scott did not get to vote on it!

It’s all about the machinations!
He never claimed to be a tea partier, he has always been a wussified RINO>

Better than Dead Ted any day!


30 posted on 10/30/2012 6:29:03 PM PDT by acapesket
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To: SeekAndFind

Who is this clown at town hall peddling polls from
All far left wing front groups like the globe which blew the last Brown senate race poll by 15 pts and old Daily Koz fraud Nate Silver l

It is a pathetic hit piece !


31 posted on 10/30/2012 6:40:24 PM PDT by ncalburt (Axelrod Psych OPS has gone to 24/7 non stop - "The election is over " status until Nov)
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To: ducttape45

“God help us if the whole country goes the way of Massachusetts.”

Not gonna happen. More than half the country is lining up behind Texas and the resurgent patriot south.

Massachusetts is an outlier state that will be kicked out of the union.


32 posted on 10/30/2012 6:58:17 PM PDT by sergeantdave (The FBI has declared war on the Marine Corps)
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To: cherry

That’s not true - even scumbag Nate Silver at the NY Times was predicting a GOP takeover of the senate up until September. Many Republicans have been predicting a takeover. Looks bad now though.


33 posted on 10/30/2012 6:58:45 PM PDT by MrShoop
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To: JaguarXKE; All

This is a Massachusetts seat, and it just was not a likely win in a presidential year.

Disappointed, but would not surprise me if we lose it.


34 posted on 10/30/2012 6:59:54 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: SeekAndFind

Brown will win. MA is still highly patriarchal, more than it’s liberal cover would let on.


35 posted on 10/30/2012 7:23:16 PM PDT by GreatRoad (O < 0)
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To: SeekAndFind

It is sad that Massachusetts may send Warren to the US Senate, despite her open faced lies about being a minority to gain preference in hiring and her practicing law without a license. Warren may take over Obama’s old position as the most liberal member of the US Senate. Al Franken already has the distinction of being the Senate’s village idiot.


36 posted on 10/30/2012 7:48:30 PM PDT by The Great RJ
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To: GreatRoad
Brown will win.
He better...
He's no Conservative but if we have to spend the next 6 years listening to Warren's voice, I will go mad....
37 posted on 10/30/2012 7:53:45 PM PDT by libertarian27 (Check my profile page for the FReeper Online Cookbook 2011)
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To: SeekAndFind
The people of Massachusetts kept re-electing an unrepentant murderer for decades.

A fake Indian commie is their ideal candidate.


38 posted on 10/30/2012 7:54:17 PM PDT by garjog (We do not want another four more years of the last four years.)
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To: cherry

Yes, Scott was behind and not expected to win in his last election. To h*ll with Fauxcahontas!


39 posted on 10/30/2012 8:01:03 PM PDT by WashingtonSource
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To: libertarian27

She is more nutz than Pelosi... this is outlandish to think people in MASS believe in such garbage.....


40 posted on 10/30/2012 8:04:45 PM PDT by Republic Rocker
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To: BlueStateRightist
Could David Paleologos be related to Constantine Paleologos?
41 posted on 10/30/2012 8:12:00 PM PDT by Fiji Hill (Deo Vindice!)
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To: SeekAndFind
This election is turning into a celebrate the RINO candidates and bash the conservatives. Very disappointing. We applaud faux Romney and Brown, yet bash Akin and Mourdock. Rather disgusting behavior this election. I personally find FREEPERS cheerleading liberal Republicans a new phenomenon. Hopefully it is just the new folks on FR that will be kicked out after the election.
42 posted on 10/30/2012 8:25:16 PM PDT by napscoordinator (GOP Candidate 2020 - "Bloomberg 2020 - We vote for whatever crap the GOP puts in front of us.")
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To: napscoordinator

Well. That’s mighty tolerant of you.
No one is promoting RINO’s but we are truly down to the lesser of two evils.
I hope you get me kicked off, then I can stop being a monthly...good and you?

I don’t love Scott, I tolerate him but Ted Kennedy was literally shoved in my face since I was I small child, he murdered a girl.

You may not like it... but Brown is the best chance we have.

Go be pure somewhere else please.


43 posted on 10/30/2012 8:58:20 PM PDT by acapesket
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To: acapesket

No one is promoting RINO’s

lol. That is a joke. I never said you loved Scott, but you sure are cheerleading him after he voted for some horrendous votes. I think you have a tinge of guilt going on. I guess they say “the truth will set you free”....I think you must be one of those that bashed the conservatives. I am not saying that you are but your behavior sure makes is possible.


44 posted on 10/30/2012 9:09:08 PM PDT by napscoordinator (GOP Candidate 2020 - "Bloomberg 2020 - We vote for whatever crap the GOP puts in front of us.")
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To: SaraJohnson

Brown is only worth 30% of a conservative, but Warren would be 180% worse than the average liberal. They are not equivalent. I’d still rather have a lib to the left of center who will occasionally do the right thing than an outright Communist who will always find the wrongest possible way to be.


45 posted on 10/30/2012 9:53:22 PM PDT by Humble Servant (Work for the most conservative one in the race, and keep up the pressure.)
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To: Humble Servant
Warren reminds me a lot of the Chinese landlord class, or the old fashioned American frontier land swindlers.

Those people were always totally amoral in any given situation. I'm surprised she didn't try to convince the folks at Harvard that she was African-American ~ they'd believed her.

46 posted on 10/31/2012 7:25:38 AM PDT by muawiyah
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