Poll: Romney, Obama locked in 49-49 tie [Oh look, it came out early today]

THE HILL ^ | October 30, 2012 | Meghashyam Mali

[SoFloFreeper]

President Obama and GOP challenger Mitt Romney are tied with only a week left before election day, according to the latest Washington Post/ABC News daily tracking poll.

The new poll finds each candidate receiving support from 49 percent of likely voters. That represents a 1-point bump for the president who trailed Romney 49-48 in Sunday’s numbers.

Romney also has the edge among independent voters who back him 53 to 43 for the president.

[SoFloFreeper]

Funniest stat from these clowns: Obama has a slight edge in voter enthusiasm, with 96 percent of his supporters saying they were “very” or “somewhat” enthusiastic about voting for him. Ninety-four percent of Romney supporters showed similar enthusiasm.

[mrs9x]

How can Romney be up by 10 points with independents, yet is only tied? This must be a D+7 sample or something.

[goldstategop]

Yup!

Look for the MSM to keep it a horse race for the week to come.

Romney is leading double digits with men and independents but they will never highlight this fact.

Get used to these push polls.

[mdmathis6]

Actually the break down was 35 dem, 28 repub and 34 indie...so yeah Dem + 7.

[paul544]

Rasmussen showed tightening as well yesterday. Before this gets shot down we should see what he shows. Gallup still looks good, but if other polls show the same thing, it could be the start of a trend. What is driving that only G*d knows.

[mrs9x]

Anyone who thinks this is going to be a D+7 year is delusional.

This poll is great for Romney. With a 10% lead among independents, and a near even turnout, Romney will win.

[zt1053]

Romney still lead by 4 in Ras swing state poll.

[Kylie_04]

Aren’t these Monday’s numbers?

[nhwingut]

Any D+ anything poll is garbage. This will be a R+1-2 turnout.

The average of RCP polls with a R+2 turnout is Romney by 6%.

[goldstategop]

Anything from the Compost isn’t worth reading.

The gold standard is Gallup. Their next poll should be out tomorrow.

[The Sons of Liberty]

I’m guessing 0bama may get a bounce if he merely goes through the motions and does his job, unlike his handling of Benghazi. Chris Christie is already kissing his butt!

[Yashcheritsiy]

D+7 is delusional.

Gallup’s most recent massive (i.e. MoE ~ 1%) partisan identification poll had it R+1. That’s an 8 point difference from this push poll. Yet, the correction for that (which would put Romney at, what, 53-54%?) is right in line with what you would expect for a candidate pulling in the numbers with white voters, male voters, and independents that Romney is.

[tobyhill]

Political breakdown was announced earlier this week by Gallup and 36% Rep, 35% Dem and 28% Ind.

If Gallup is right then Romney wins in a landslide.

[Mikey_1962]

Wash Post ABC Poll was #17 out of 23 polls in 2008:

Here is the list –

1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)

1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)

3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)

4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)

5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)

6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)

6T. ARG (10/25-27)

8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)

8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)

10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)

12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)

13. FOX (11/1-2)

14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)

15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)

16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)

17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)

18. Marist College (11/3)

19. CBS (10/31-11/2)

20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)

21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)

22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)

23. Newsweek (10/22-23)

[NoobRep]

Ras said he’s doing a limited poll today because they are based out of NJ and affected by the storm.

[gswilder]

I believe this is the ABC/WaPo poll from late Monday. They released 2 polls on Monday, because they didn’t release on Saturday for some reason.

But again, D+7 isn’t in the realm of possibility.

At this point, the only polling that matters is in 5-6 states. And don’t freak out when you see O’s favorable improving this week due to the hurricane.

[LibLieSlayer]

This poll... like abc news itself... is a fabricated joke!

LLS

[Mountain Mary]

Politico has same nonsense. I told Jonathan Martin that they are making fools of themselves.

[LibLieSlayer]

They are desperate Mary... they have nothing but lies left. Con Edison says 7 to 10 days without power... cbs ny has a website where liberals are already posting, “Why can't the government get the power back on quicker than these companies say”? obama will fail because he has painted himself as a savior... but as with everything else that has come up this election... reality will soon smack obamao right up side the head. BTW... estimates are 4 to 7 days for cell service to return to some areas. The narrative today is how wonderful obama is handling this crisis... when he has done nothing at all... wait until they realize that other than water, food and a paltry handout... he can do nothing to alleviate their pain... and I KNOW what I am talking about. I have been through almost every major hurricane since Betsy in 1965. LLS

LLS

[Brandonmark]

Any poll that is using the 2008 turnout model is projecting or perhaps wishing for an Obama victory. In reality, the 2012 model will be a hybrid that will throw off the voter surveys thus far. In reality, Republican “super voters” are being recorded in heavy numbers in absentee/early voting trends, while democrats are “cannibalizing” their normal election day “super voter” turnout to make up for lower numbers they are finding in the early voting numbers. The independents and undecideds are breaking toward Romney, so the key becomes GOTV. The GOP has enabled a very sophisticated poll watcher network that combines old-fashioned legwork with high-tech mobile aps that will allow the Romney campaign to monitor election day turnout with real-time accuracy. Folks, this will be interesting to watch, but keep in mind that “exit poll” models will be skewed to the point of being even more irrelevant than in the past. Only the honest and reliable pollsters will be able to survive after the election if they are using scientific data collection methods rather than these “projection” polling models.