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In Pennsylvania, the Democratic Lean Is Slight, but Durable ( Nate Silver Watch Oct 29 )
New York Times ^ | Oct 29 2012 | Nate Silver

Posted on 10/29/2012 3:01:30 PM PDT by NoLibZone

New reports indicate that the 2012 presidential campaign is coming to Pennsylvania. After a spate of advertising during the summer, Pennsylvania — in a break from tradition — has largely avoided the volume of campaign commercials that states like Ohio and Virginia have seen.

But beginning Tuesday, Restore Our Future, a “super-PAC” supporting Mitt Romney, will blanket Pennsylvania with about $2 million worth of advertisements. President Obama’s advisers greeted that news on Monday by saying that the Obama campaign would also spend advertising money in the Keystone State between now and Election Day.

In fact, Pennsylvania is the only state in the nation that has been unfailingly Democratic-leaning relative to the national popular vote in every presidential election since 1950. With the exceptions of the landslide elections in 1964 and 1984, however, Pennsylvania’s leftward lean has been fairly narrow, between one and five percentage points.


(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; electionpolls2012; natesilver; polls2012

1 posted on 10/29/2012 3:01:30 PM PDT by NoLibZone
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To: NoLibZone

Nate Silver Suicide Watch ?


2 posted on 10/29/2012 3:13:55 PM PDT by stephenjohnbanker ((God, family, country, mom, apple pie, the girl next door and a Ford F250 to pull my boat.))
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To: stephenjohnbanker

I would pay to have a live feed on Nate onTuesday night. Amazing what leaked 2008 polls from Obama insiders can do for a spoiled brat of an MSU political science professor and activist mom.


3 posted on 10/29/2012 3:17:47 PM PDT by crosslink (Moderates should play in the middle of a busy street)
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To: stephenjohnbanker
Nate Silver Suicide Watch ?

That was my first thought, too.

Starting the evening of November 6th, he should probably be kept away from knives and tall buildings. Since he's a New York Timer, we don't need to worry that he would off himself with a firearm.

4 posted on 10/29/2012 3:30:10 PM PDT by Disambiguator (Re-electing Obama is not optimal.)
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To: crosslink

We will probably never hear from this mope again : )


5 posted on 10/29/2012 3:32:35 PM PDT by stephenjohnbanker ((God, family, country, mom, apple pie, the girl next door and a Ford F250 to pull my boat.))
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To: NoLibZone

This is one situation in which I have to agree with the alternate lifestyle liberal puke. PA is frequently a tease. But that’s all. I have wasted many a hope on PA.


6 posted on 10/29/2012 3:36:24 PM PDT by outofstyle (Down All the Days)
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To: Disambiguator

Suicide-by-Marxist ?


7 posted on 10/29/2012 3:40:16 PM PDT by stephenjohnbanker ((God, family, country, mom, apple pie, the girl next door and a Ford F250 to pull my boat.))
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To: fatima; Fresh Wind; st.eqed; xsmommy; House Atreides; Nowhere Man; South Hawthorne; brityank; ...

PA Ping!

If you want on/off the PA Ping List, please freepmail me.

If you see posts of interest to Pennsylvanians, please ping me.

Thanks!


8 posted on 10/29/2012 4:12:51 PM PDT by randita
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To: NoLibZone

My view?

The rule usually is a valid one but I have this feeling it may be different this year. After all, there can be exceptions to the rule.

Nate Silver has a point but he doesn’t want to acknowledge that PA could vote different this year because that possibility exists.


9 posted on 10/29/2012 4:16:14 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved FrieGrnd Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: NoLibZone

Just a little over a week until Nate Silver’s name will be mentioned along side John Zogby.


10 posted on 10/29/2012 4:16:28 PM PDT by middlegeorgian
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To: NoLibZone

Silver is right. It may be close in PA, but theGOPS’s ceiling in the state is 48%. Obama will win it. Same for WI, MI, IA and NV. It will be close but Romeny won’t get beypon 48%.

Ohio is the decider.


11 posted on 10/29/2012 4:42:39 PM PDT by red in brea
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To: Disambiguator
I am of the opinion he should have as much access to tall buildings and knives as he wishes.

For America to be great again, the propaganda factory that masquerades as objective news media needs to be destroyed.

12 posted on 10/29/2012 4:43:27 PM PDT by RightWingNilla
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To: NoLibZone

Silver is right. It may be close in PA, but the GOPS’s ceiling in the state is 48%. Obama will win it. Same for WI, MI, IA and NV. It will be close but Romeny won’t get beyond 48%.

Ohio is the decider.


13 posted on 10/29/2012 4:45:56 PM PDT by red in brea
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To: stephenjohnbanker

Gallup, Ras and WashPost trackers all have Romney in the lead, but Nate’s got him at 25% chance.

Wonder when Nate Silver will pull the rug on his models?
Day after the election?

Romney will win by 5 points IMHO.


14 posted on 10/29/2012 6:02:46 PM PDT by WOSG (REPEAL AND REPLACE OBAMA. He stole America’s promise!)
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To: RightWingNilla

” For America to be great again, the propaganda factory that masquerades as objective news media needs to be destroyed. “

50% of the necessity of defeating Obama is what he will do in office.

50% of the necessity of defeating Obama is defeating the leftist horde that uses his power to advance their own.


15 posted on 10/29/2012 6:10:00 PM PDT by WOSG (REPEAL AND REPLACE OBAMA. He stole America’s promise!)
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To: WOSG

Very possible.


16 posted on 10/30/2012 8:38:03 AM PDT by stephenjohnbanker ((God, family, country, mom, apple pie, the girl next door and a Ford F250 to pull my boat.))
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