Gallup: 2012 Electorate more Republican than 2004

Mike Flynn, Breitbart.com via Fox ^ | October 26, 2012 | Mike Flynn

[GonzoII]

In 2008, 54% of likely voters identified as Democrat or lean Democrat. 42% of likely voters identified as GOP or lean GOP. In other words, the electorate, including independents who lean towards a particular party, was D+12. This year, however, the Democrat advantage has disappeared. 49% of likely voters today identify as GOP or lean GOP. Just 46% of likely voters are or lean towards the Democrats. This is a 15-point swing towards the GOP from 2008 to an outright +3 advantage for the GOP. By comparison, in 2004, when Bush won reelection, the electorate was evenly split, with each party getting support from 48% of likely voters.

If these numbers are within even a few points of what this survey suggests, then Romney will win decisively and the GOP will pick up the Senate. We are likely standing on the edge of another GOP wave election.

[GonzoII]

"We are likely standing on the edge of another GOP wave election. "

I keep thinking 2010 was not that far back... I say Romney 55+..I pray we get the Senate!

[PGR88]

I pray it be so

[hinckley buzzard]

Romney's PAC should remind people--the issues of 2010 are still out there and within spitting distance of being resolved if everyone holds the course.

[The Sons of Liberty]

Praying without ceasing.

[tlp2001]

Obozo’s performance is destroying his party!

[Mygirlsmom]

Just MHO, but I also believe there will be a fair number of people who still self-identify as a Democrat, but will either pull the lever for Romney or vote "present" on the Presidential race.

[Signalman]

The Gallup survey suggests that voter turnout among Obama's biggest supporters, i.e. minorities and young voters, will generally match 2008 levels.

Not buying that. No way are the yutes going to turn out for Obama this year like they did in 2008.

[Cheerio]

I say Romney 55+..I pray we get the Senate!

We must have the Senate. Even if RR are in WH Harry Reid can still stop everything. If Senate is tied, perhaps Leiberman can be persuaded to pull a "Jeffords"?

[tlp2001]

Yes. All the numbers show that voter enthusiasm among the youth is way off.

[Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America]

There is no ‘Democrat’ party. 0bama, Pelosi and Reid have transformed the party into the Socialist party. This irks me no end; That they STILL call themselves Democrats! THEY AREN’T. I wish they’d STOP HIDING BEHIND THAT BOGUS LABEL.

[Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America]

I agree. Without early voting and absentee voting hardly ANYONE would show up for 0bama on election day and wait in line to vote for that scumbag.

[tlp2001]

10 more days!!! 10 more days!!!

[Senator Goldwater]

If Romney gets anything north of 51%, we’ll have the Senate.

I’m expecting Romney to hit 53%, and I’ll go with a 55 seat majority for the GOP Senate.

That should undue some socialism.

[okie01]

If Senate is tied, perhaps Leiberman can be persuaded to pull a "Jeffords"?

Lieberman is not running for re-election.

The most likely candidate to abandon the Democrat party would be Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV).

[tlp2001]

Well said! These corrupt aholes and their radical agenda are the reason there is total gridlock in Washington.

[CA Conservative]

We must have the Senate. Even if RR are in WH Harry Reid can still stop everything. If Senate is tied, perhaps Leiberman can be persuaded to pull a "Jeffords"?

If the Senate is tied and Romney wins, Ryan becomes the tie-breaker as President of the Senate.

[catfish1957]

The one thing that I think will make this thing tighter than everyone is hoping is the “entitlement” crowd thinking they will lose their welfare checks, food stamps, Obama phones, etc. under a Romney administration. Add that to historic fraud, and I am afraid this thing is going to be a nail biter.

[jafojeffsurf]

My swag at the overall vote has been 55% Romney and 40% O with 5% going to 3rd parties. No meat behind the swag but gut feelings and wishful thinking maybe because I do not want a close race, it needs to be define so that there are no mixed messages or open doors to angst. We will know for sure in about 10 days and a few hours...

[Don Corleone]

I say Romney 55+..I pray we get the Senate!

Maybe he'll take all 57 states.

[GLDNGUN]

Just MHO, but I also believe there will be a fair number of people who still self-identify as a Democrat, but will either pull the lever for Romney or vote "present" on the Presidential race.

Indeed, looking at the internals of the most recent poll done here in Oregon, of the republican undecideds 40% said they would ultimately vote for Romney if they had to choose someone right now, while 60% remained uncommitted or would pick someone other than Romney or Obama. ZERO % said they would vote for Obama. When they asked the undecided democrats the same question, Romney and Obama BOTH got 21% of that vote, while the other 58% remained uncommitted or would pick someone else.

This would seem to indicate that, yes, many democrats will ultimately decide to vote for Romney, and that the undecideds will break heavily for Romney.