Oregon Poll: 0 47%, R 42%

Hoffman Research ^

[Arthurio]

On Wednesday October 24th and Thursday October 25, 2012, The Hoffman

Research Group surveyed a cross section of Oregon voters to ascertain voter preferences in the 2012 Presidential election.

The resulting data found President Barack Obama currently leading Governor Mitt Romney by a 47% to 42% margin.

When pushed, undecided voters broke toward Mitt Romney almost 2 to 1.

The random sample of 615 Oregon voters surveyed 42% Democrats, 34%

Republicans and 24% Unaffiliated voters. The statistical margin of error for this survey is plus or minus 3.9%. Attention was given to Oregon’s rural or urban divide and maintained appropriate balances with regard to party, gender and age within seven geographic regions.

The Hoffman Research Group, a division of Gateway Communications Inc. has been measuring the views and opinions of Oregonians since 1984.

Of those who have voted: 47% Republican Mitt Romney 47% Democrat Barack Obama 6% Neither Candidate / Refused

[rfp1234]

It must be the coastal humidity, that causes mold to grow in many people’s brains.

[Coffee_drinker]

Lifetime Oregonian here. It's amazing how much people who live in Portland pay in taxes, they have city taxes, trimet taxes, property tax.. I just wonder how long people who live there will keep voting democrat knowing that each time they do their taxes go up.

In my suburban neighborhood I’m seeing 10-1 signs for Romney, the Obama signs are old from the previous election.

I just pray a geometric change will happen in OR!

[lgwdnbdgr]

2008, Oregon was 36/27/37 (D/R/I)
2004, Oregon was 32/34/34 (D/R/I)

Independents backed Kerry 58-40 in 2004. In Portland, most unaffiliated voters register that way because they think the Democratic Party is too conservative.

[Anti-Hillary]

I live here and am connected, somewhat, and there is some inside info here..... Internals look good! Not sure if Rommney will pull it out, but it is VERY possible. Do NOT forget that Bush only lost here in 2000 by 0.5%.

You do realize that this poll is stating that if the undecideds break 2:1 this state is in a DEAD HEAT!!!!

[Veggie Todd]

BamBam has been running tv ads since the convention. Not one Romney ad.

[GLDNGUN]

When pushed, undecided voters broke toward Mitt Romney almost 2 to 1.

THAT is the money-line of the article. There have been theories and studies about how undecideds break come time to grow a pair and make a decision. They don't always break for the challenger, but here we have good evidence that it will be the case this year.

Romney may not win Oregon even if the undecideds do break 2-1 for him, but if that trend holds nationally...we will be in for a landslide. Being an Oregonian I pray that Romney does carry the state even though he probably won't need it (and shouldn't count on it). We have a MAIL-IN ONLY election. That's right...you CAN'T go to the "polls" on election day in Oregon. There are no "polls" to go to. I think that probably favors the parasites who get their ballot along with their gubmint check in the mail, and we all know who they vote for.

[happydogx2]

I’ve lived in Oregon for the last 35 years and currently reside in Bend. Sadly this state will remain blue due to the major liberal I-5 corridor cities of Portland, Salem, Eugene & Ashland. You’ll have 30 counties vote for Romney and 7 vote for Obama and Obama will win by 7-10%.

[max americana]

Yup. I used to live in Bellingham and it was heaven for me. Socially though, it was as dead as obama’s honor.

[Jet Jaguar]

Poll Ping. Oregon.

[Perdogg]

Obama won the Independants by 23% in Oregon. According to this survey he is underwater again.

[Perdogg]

Obama won the Independants by 23% in Oregon. According to this survey he is underwater again.

[Bigjimslade]

Not from Oregon but, CNN 2008 exit poll was D+9 and likely oversampled dems as do most exit polls. Interestingly the breakdown of sex was 50:50.

[WOSG]

“If it weren’t for Portland and college hippies in places like Ashland, this state would be all R. Portland just runs that state.”
“The same is true for Washington State. If you remove the Seattle metropolitan area from the mix the state is conservative. “

The same is true in EVERY state. Just a few urban counties, either in NY, IL, WA, or MD, PA or MI, or NV, or even CA, makes the state Democrat and liberal. Remove the College towns, capital city, and mega-cities, and this country would be 2-to-1 Republican.

[Bigjimslade]

Almost forgot. Indies were 37% in 2008 exit polls. Seems this poll might not be showing enough indies.

[Impy]

Early voters in Oregon have gone 47-47 so far according to this poll.

This early voting is very interesting.

[Perdogg]

cross tabs?

[Anti-Hillary]

Just to correct you. I live in Marion County (Salem) and we vote conservative 80% of the time. Please do not lump us in with the rest of the I-5 crazies!!!! This is a bastion of conservatism sandwiched in between liberal nutjobs!!

[MitchellC]

Is this a credible pollster?

[GLDNGUN]

Other interesting numbers from the internals...

Have you had a chance to vote yet?
34% Yes
66% No


Of those who have voted:
47% Republican Mitt Romney
47% Democrat Barack Obama


Hmmm...this shows who is fired up to vote and who is not. As we get closer to election day when Oregonians have to mail in their ballots by, more and more democrats may be too demoralized to bother voting, especially if the Libya fiasco continues to simmer, and if it looks like Obama is going to lose. There really aren't any other issues on the Oregon ballot that should get a liberal really excited to vote on and check Obama's name while they are at it. Even the "legalize pot" initiative may take votes away from Obama and go to Johnson.

(IF UNDECIDED) IF YOU ABSOLUTELY HAD TO CHOOSE TODAY, WOULD YOU VOTE FOR REPUBLICAN MITT ROMNEY OR DEMOCRAT BARACK OBAMA?

The undecided Republicans then say Romney over Obama 40% to ZERO%. You read that right, 40-0. The undecided Democrats split down the middle 21% each for Romney and Obama. The other 60% of undecided GOP voters and 58% dem voters refused to pick 1 or went with someone else. Also undecided "new voters" (haven't voted in any of last 4 elections) went for Romney over Obama 25% to ZERO%, with the other 75% remaining undecided or committed to someone else.

For some reason they asked this "undecided" group if they had already voted, and some said "yes"?! LOL Of those "undecided" voters who have already voted, they went for Obama 60%-40%. Buyers remorse? Stupidity to understand simple poll questions? All of the above? The undecided who haven't voted yet go for Romney 26%-9% with the rest refusing to pick between the two or picking someone else.

[Impy]

I have never heard of them. They seem to be a local Oregon firm.

From google some democrats seem to think it’s a GOP outfit.