Posted on 10/26/2012 12:15:00 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC's forecast intensity for that time:
D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH
NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast "cone", the solid white and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions, where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.
If you are along the coast, the worst surge will be to the north of the core of the storm. So if the storm goes through Delaware, for example, Delaware Bay and the Jersey Shore would get the worst surge, and probably have bad surge all the way up to NYC and Long Island.
Looks like Halloween will be a wash-out
Looks like it’s headed right for DC. Is God about to clean house for us?
yikes, I’m located right above the “N” of NJ...last years storm did real damage tree wise and this is suppose to be greater....big run on water in the stores today, no generators, all gone....
Slow Joe better start campaigning in his home state...NOW!
Just last night Fox was telling us that it was going to be hitting NYC and cause untold destruction!
Who will be hit hardest?
Well, I’m on Long Island, so we’ll probably get something. My mother’s right on the Sound and there’s a very high tide expected with the Oct. 29 full moon — she’s worried (and she should be; the tides have breached the seawall before).
I’m not as close to the water, and on much higher ground so I’m not worried about flooding but last year’s storms took out 2 of my biggest trees. I’ve got a monster maple in the backyard I’m afraid can come down. We’ll be keeping our fingers crossed and the kids in the basement just in case.
Regards,
My daughter in Cape May says she will be here with her dog if the Jersey shore is evacuated.
This storm could be wide enough to hammer NYC from a landfall down in the Delmarva Peninsula.
That's easy!
That would be truly remarkable. In the history of recordkeeping, Delaware is the only state along the Eastern/Gulf seaboard from Texas to Maine that has never experienced a landfall.
Tell her to stay safe.
I did. You be careful too.
Will do - just have last minute stuff to pick up.....
YAWN!
Even money this takes a right hook and goes out to sea.
I hope God isn’t about to clean house. I live in Rockville during the week (bad enough...very close to D.C.), but my sister is living on the Eastern Shore of Maryland, just 10 minutes from Delaware. Pray God he’s NOT cleaning house, please pray.
They were saying it was going to be a direct hit.
Awwww man... don’t jinx it...
i just cancelled my scout troop’s camp trip upstate delaware... didn’t look good.
wind rain and whining...
so now it will turn east and not hit us.
t
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